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Chatting at Baseball Prospectus
I'm hosting a chat at Baseball Prospectus today at 1:00 PM ET/10:00 a.m. PT

Posted by Jeff Erickson at 7/3/2008 9:49:00 AM
Comments (5)

Midseason Over/Under Bets
We're at the midpoint of the 2008 MLB season as most teams have played between 80-82 games. I wanted to check my over/under win total bets for the season and see if there are any opportunities for the second half. Here was my preseason article. My bets were:

2008Seattle Mariners$200 under on 84 winsJohnson Effect
2008Chicago Cubs$50 under on 87.5 winsPlexiglas Principle
2008Oakland A's$50 over on 73.5 winsReverse Plexiglas Principle
2008San Francisco$50 under on 72 winsBook Non Mover

I thought Seattle would regress based on the fact they were outscored by their opponents in 2007. That's worked out well - far better than anyone could have expected. I could probably cash this bet out for 99 percent of its value as the contract on Tradesports for Seattle to win 85.5 games is trading at $1 - or about a 1 percent chance.

While I nailed the Seattle bet, the Cubs are the exact opposite. I didn't think the Cubs had the starting staff that historically helps hold up a large jump in win totals. The Cubs are seen having a 90 percent chance of winning 87.5 games on Tradesports. But I bet more money on Seattle than the Cubs, so I'm still happy with the outcome.

The Giants are seen by many as overperforming, but they're still on pace for only 70 wins. Tradesports has them with a 39.5 chance at 73.5 wins (where was I to not get that line?). PECOTA has them winning 73 wins at this point. So it's still a toss up, but I feel good about my position that veterans such as Bengie Molina, Randy Winn, Rich Aurillia and Ray Durham are having good seasons. (Where were they when Barry Bonds needed them?) They're likely to get hurt, regress or get traded.

Oakland looks certain to win 73.5 wins since it's a low bar to clear (which was the basis for my bet). Tradesports gives the A's a 96.5 percent chance of wining 73.5 games.

So overall, I'm almost certain to make money and have a realistic shot at going 3-for-4.

My bet with Joe Sheehan hasn't gone quite as well:

Over Team Total Under
Sheehan Cubs 87.5 Schoenke
Sheehan Rangers 77.5 Schoenke
Sheehan Reds 79 Schoenke

The Cubs part of the bet has killed me. The Rangers have a 55.5 percent chance to win 77.5 games on Tradesports. PECOTA forecasts them to win 79.4 games. The Reds are on pace for 75 wins. They have a 33 percent chance to win 78.5 wins on Tradesports. PECOTA forecasts 76.3 wins for Cincy.

I'm still alive, but have to go 2-for-2 since Joe basically has one in the barn.

What values do I see for the second half? How about the Twins and White Sox? I'm not sure either can sustain their current pace. Trade sports has the Twins with a 87.5 chance to win 75.5 games. While I think they'll win 75.5 games at this point, I could see shorting the contract since their Pythagorean W-L doesn't support their win totals and their offense has been fluky with a lot of success with runners in scoring position (even though that pains me as a Twins fan). The White Sox have a pattern of fading in the second half of the season this decade under manager Ozzie Guillen's leadership. My take there is that his high energy style leads to big ups and downs. They have a 91 percent chance at winning 80.5 games. They'll finish about .500, but that contract should come down in price (probably wishful thinking as a Twins fan, although I think the Tigers ultimately win the division as their offense surges).

The Angels may also be a sell opportunity. They have a 53 percent chance to win 92.5 games on Tradesports, while they've played 6-to-9 wins better than expected on BaseballProspectus' third-order wins and losses. Not that they won't make the playoffs, but I could see a slight decline in the second half.

Good luck in the second half.

Posted by Peter Schoenke at 7/1/2008 10:46:00 AM

Comments (1)

MLB Notes
After another brilliant performance Sunday, Kevin Slowey has to be considered a major asset in even the shallowest of mixed leagues. His current 3.47 ERA will likely never be better because of his tendency to give up home runs, but his control is outstanding (1.12 BB/9 IP), so most of the long balls are solo shots, leaving him with an exemplary WHIP (1.04). His last four starts have all come against NL teams, which has certainly helped, but his 6:1 K:BB ratio on the year is elite. Teammate Scott Baker has been similarly impressive.

If a fantasy draft were held today, Iíd have no problem whatsoever with C.C. Sabathia being the first pitcher taken. How about a 36:4 K:BB ratio over the past four starts? On May 3, he had a 7.51 ERA Ė 10 starts later that number is all the way down to 3.78. Sabathia gave up six more runs over the first 18 innings this season than heís allowed during 96.1 innings since. Last seasonís big workload is still a concern, but thereís certainly nothing to worry about the way Sabathia is currently throwing.

Thereís not much to like about Pedro Martinezís 7.12 ERA and 1.75 WHIP, but consider his last three starts came against the Rangers, Rockies (in Coors Field) and Yankees, so Iím not ready to write him off just yet.

Itís safe to say Billy Beane is kicking himself for not dealing Joe Blanton during the offseason. After getting pounded by the Giants on Sunday, Blantonís ERA is now an ugly 4.97. His BABIP is similar to last season, but heís walking more batters while striking fewer out. His true skill level is probably somewhere in between last year and this year.

Even though I own him in zero leagues, I hated to see Jacob McGee go down. The Rays are still in place for a big run this decade, but that was a major blow.

Over his last four starts, Rocky Nolasco has posted a 27:4 K:BB ratio with a 0.91 WHIP, so he can no longer be ignored. His BABIP and strand rate arenít flukish, and last yearís awful campaign can be directly related to injury. The former fourth round pick once posted a 2.95 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a 9.63 K/9 IP mark in Double-A as a 22-year-old, so this isnít coming completely out of nowhere. Nolasco has also increased his velocity this year. With three upcoming starts against the Nationals, Padres and Dodgers before the All-Star break, he needs to be owned in fantasy leagues.

Gil Meche endured a rough April, but he has a 1.13 WHIP with a 3.1:1 K:BB ratio since then. His terrible first month is still bringing down his overall numbers, but a 7.8 K/9 IP mark over the last two months suggests heís well worth owning. Contracts like Barry Zitoís and Carlos Silvaís are going to look far worse than the one Meche signed.

So far, my preseason advice to avoid Javier Vazquez at all costs has looked good. He hasnít allowed fewer than four runs in any of his starts during the month of June. Like the rest of his career (other than last yearís aberration), his fantastic K rate and K:BB ratio donít match up to his ERA. Vazquez has been unlucky (.345 BABIP), so expect his WHIP to drop, but he still allows too many homers and struggles from the stretch to be a help in the ERA department. And in all fairness, I was also high on Brett Myers entering the year.

Hopefully David DeJesusí recent rib injury isnít too bad, because heís been a nice surprise in 2008, thanks in no small part to a major league leading .463 batting average with runners in scoring position. Donít mess with the DeJesus.

Posted by Dalton Del Don at 6/29/2008 5:07:00 PM
Comments (15)

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