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Swinging with Swiss Cheese
It's been said often that defense wins championships. In baseball, defense and especially pitching win championships. I'm beginning to question that logic. The San Diego Padres have one of the best pitching staffs in the league and a solid defense, but their offense is just abysmal. The Padres have been knocked out early in the playoffs in each of the last two years because of a lack of offense and could be headed for a similar fate this season.

Here's how bad their offense is: they have been held to two or fewer runs in 24 games (almost one-third of their contests); they have recorded three or fewer hits in seven games; their .241 team batting average is the second-worst in the majors; they rank 25th among 30 big league teams with 358 runs scored. Of course, their pitching is dominant, with a 3.00 team ERA over half a run better than all other teams.

My point, though, is that the Padres usually lose when they give up four or more runs. That's a very slim margin for error, especially in the playoffs, where games are usually taut, one-run affairs. If the Padres fall behind 2-0, it seems like 7-0. A pitching-oriented team can do well in the long run, but the baseball playoffs are a sprint to the finish. The Padres don't usually bring enough punch to the party, and as a result they could make another early exit from the postseason. I'd sacrifice a little bit of pitching for some extra oomph at the plate.

Posted by Ted Rossman at 7/6/2007 6:41:00 AM

Comments (4)

MLB Notes
Daisuke Matsuzaka has quietly turned into one of the best pitchers in baseball. After a mediocre first two months in the states, Dice-K has posted a 1.28 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 51:16 K:BB ratio over his last 42 innings. He still has command issues from time to time, but it’s clear Boston is going to get their money’s worth. There was too much mystery for me to draft him in fantasy leagues, but those who did are going to be repaid handsomely for taking the risk.

With a poor start to July combining with an already bad overall line, it might not be a terrible idea to throw an offer at Alex Gordon’s owner. He’s still striking out far too often, but the skill set is so obviously there. Add in the fact he’s been willing to chip in on the base paths, and you’re looking at someone who could go 12/12 during the second half of the season. Kauffman Stadium is an underrated hitter’s park, and Gordon only figures to improve as he accumulates more and more major league at-bats.

Takashi Saito has a 43:3 K:BB ratio this season. He has 19 more strikeouts than baserunners allowed. That’s pretty good.

Tim Wakefield has faced the toughest combination of hitters so far in the 2007 season, with an opponents’ aggregate OPS of .770. Roy Halladay ranks third, with Gil Meche, Daniel Cabrera and Curt Schilling sliding in next. As for those who have been lucky enough to face a decidedly easy schedule so far, Ted Lilly has pitched to the weakest opposition through the first three months of the year (.703 OPS). Scott Olsen, Tom Gorzelanny, Doug Davis and Randy Wolf have also faced easy competition.

Chris Duncan’s overall numbers don’t jump out at you, but against right-handers, he’s clubbed 14 homers over 171 at-bats, good for one big fly per 12.2 ABs. For comparison’s sake, Prince Fielder, the NL’s leader in HRs with 27, has a rate of one HR per 11.5 at-bats.

Congratulations to Joey Chestnut, who took down reigning champ Takeru Kobayashi when he inhaled a record-setting 66 hot dogs during Nathan's Famous hot dog eating contest Wednesday.

Posted by Dalton Del Don at 7/4/2007 10:34:00 AM
Comments (4)

Goodbye Grover
So Mike Hargrove bowed out Sunday, leaving the reason up to everyone's imagination, because as Miguel Batista said, "Why leave? That doesn't make any sense to me." But I'm not going to look a gift horse in the mouth.

Thanks to a clubhouse full of smoke and mirrors, the Mariners aren't 20 games out. However it happened***, Hargrove's quiting was the first of a number of needed moves if the Mariners want to contend. Here's a few more:

1. DFA Jose Vidro and his .230/.333/.270 w/RISP and 13 GIDP to 12 XBH.
2. DH Ben Broussard or call up Adam Jones to play left and move Raul Ibanez to DH. Jones is better defensively, plus Broussard gives the team a good bat off the bench who can (sort of) play corner OF and first.
3. Send Brandon Morrow to Triple-A. He has control issues, relies on his fastball too much and needs to become a starter anyway. Maybe he can come back in September when Jeff Weaver implodes.
4. Use Chris Reitsma as the right-handed set-up guy until Mark Lowe (.193 ERA, .190 BAA in 2006) is ready to return from the DL at the All-Star break.
5. Trade for a pitcher (Mark Buehrle?). The M's have a prospect catcher to spare (Jeff Clement or Rob Johnson) and can add lower-level prospect and either Ryan Feierabend or Chae Seung Baek. (Although that's not as much as the White Sox (Jeremy Reed, Miguel Olivo, Mike Morse) gave the Mariners for Freddy Garcia a few years back, so maybe they'd have to throw in more.)
6. DFA Horacio Ramirez. (Hard to believe anyone would trade for him.)
7. Give Ichiro a contract extension.

(***Funny thing is, Hargrove seemed like a different manager this season. Maybe it was desperation after getting the "Hot Seat" warning from ownership, or maybe it was the presence of bench coach/new manager John McLaren, but Hargrove noticeably played against type, using the bullpen more efficiently, calling suicide squeezes, turning a 180 from last year's emphasis on running that just ran the team into outs, mixing up the lineup more than his usual set-in-stone order, etc. etc.)

Posted by Jason Thornbury at 7/2/2007 11:08:00 AM

Comments (0)

All-Star Grumblings: National League
I understand the absurdity of arguing against who got snubbed for the Major League All-Star game, but what good is having a blog if you can’t complain about the minutiae? First up, the NL squad:

Catcher – Russell Martin – An easy call. Martin has been one of the most pleasant surprises in baseball through the first half of the season. In fact, if he kept the same pace over the next three months, he’d likely finish the season as a top-20 fantasy player.

First Base – Prince Fielder – Deserving. He’s one homer shy of last year’s total in 266 fewer at-bats.

Second Base – Chase Utley – Another no-brainer. There isn’t a bigger gap at any other position than Utley and the rest of MLB’s second basemen.

Third Base - David Wright – He’s having a fine season, but Miguel Cabrera should be starting here. Still, that’s nitpicking, and there are far worse decisions to come.

Shortstop – Jose Reyes – The most loaded group in recent memory. Tough to argue with the Reyes pick, but the fact Hanley Ramirez didn’t even make it as a reserve is egregious. There’s a pretty good argument to be made that J.J. Hardy has been the fifth best NL SS this year.

Outfield – Ken Griffey Jr. – Do you realize that Griffey has 585 career home runs? Over the last six seasons, Junior has missed 418 games, an average of 70 contests per season.

Outfield – Carlos Beltran – Four homers over a two-game span this weekend sure makes this selection more palatable.

Outfield - Barry Bonds – Some of the media are treating his insertion like some charity case because the game is in San Francisco. In a recent ESPN SportsNation poll, Bonds blew everyone out with a 48% vote as “player least deserving to start.” Unfortunately, those pesky stats don’t back up these claims. Bonds leads the NL in OPS (1.119), walks (84), OBP (.516) and ranks second in slugging (.603) despite playing in an extreme pitcher’s park. He only ranks eighth in the league in homers (16), but it’s awfully tough to contend in that category when seeing two-three pitches within feet of the strike zone per game.

A few notes on the NL reserves: Did Dmitri Young really just make an All-Star team? Freddy Sanchez over Ian Snell as Pittsburgh’s representative is laughable, especially considering the other middle infield snubs. With Matt Holliday already on the roster, why was Brian Fuentes also included? You’re telling me he’s had a better year than Chris Young? Young should be in consideration to start the game, let alone make it as a reserve. As for Jake Peavy vs. Brad Penny, it’s a tough call on who should start. Peavy has the more impressive strikeout numbers, but Petco is a better park to pitch in. Penny hasn’t allowed more than one run in a game since June 3! Still, since I’m convinced last year’s All-Star start – when he came out pumping 99 mph fastballs – essentially ruined Penny’s second half, for his own sake (and my fantasy team’s), I’m hoping Peavy gets the nod.

Posted by Dalton Del Don at 7/2/2007 10:52:00 AM
Comments (9)

All-Star Grumblings: American League
Catcher – Ivan Rodriguez – Selecting Pudge over Victor Martinez might be the worst decision of all. How about a whopping .190 OPS advantage for V-Mart? I-Rod’s 41:4 K:BB ratio is almost embarrassing. The people who made this vote probably also came away from “The Sopranos” finale thinking Tony wasn’t whacked. “How can you be so obtuse?” (Again, bonus points for catching that reference – this time it’s a movie).

First Base – David Ortiz – The fact he’s only played seven games at first base this season doesn’t bother me too much. Justin Morneau is the obvious alternative.

Second Base – Placido Polanco – Well, he’s tough to strike out, and Joe Morgan says he “plays the game the right way.” (Just once, I’d like to hear someone get called out for playing it the “wrong way.”) Anyway, Brian Roberts would have been the correct choice here.

Third Base – Alex Rodriguez – A-Rod has a legitimate chance of reaching 162 RBI this season.

Shortstop – Derek Jeter – Again, nitpicking, but Carlos Guillen is having the superior season offensively. Interesting stat to note: Jeter is just 7-for-14 in stolen base attempts this season.

Outfield – Magglio Ordonez – No argument here. What a remarkable turnaround that I certainly didn’t see coming.

Outfield – Ichiro Suzuki – Sporting the best walk rate of his career, Ichiro is looking at a monster contract this offseason. Grady Sizemore is right there with him as deserving starters in center field.

Outfield – Vladimir Guerrero – The right choice.

A few notes on the AL reserves: Not a whole lot to argue about here, but Gary Sheffield absolutely deserves to be on the team. Michael Young wins out in the battle of attrition in Texas, while Gil Meche does the same in Kansas City. Dan Haren has had a fine season, but it’s Johan Santana who deserves to take the ball in the first inning. Santana’s 2.76 ERA is the best mark of his career during a season’s first half. If he’s not the most valuable fantasy player this season (Jose Reyes), he’s the second best.

Posted by Dalton Del Don at 7/2/2007 10:50:00 AM
Comments (6)

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5/27/2007 - 6/2/2007
5/20/2007 - 5/26/2007
5/13/2007 - 5/19/2007
5/6/2007 - 5/12/2007
4/29/2007 - 5/5/2007
4/22/2007 - 4/28/2007
4/15/2007 - 4/21/2007
4/8/2007 - 4/14/2007
4/1/2007 - 4/7/2007
3/25/2007 - 3/31/2007
3/18/2007 - 3/24/2007
3/11/2007 - 3/17/2007
3/4/2007 - 3/10/2007
2/25/2007 - 3/3/2007
2/18/2007 - 2/24/2007
2/11/2007 - 2/17/2007
2/4/2007 - 2/10/2007
1/28/2007 - 2/3/2007
1/21/2007 - 1/27/2007
1/14/2007 - 1/20/2007
1/7/2007 - 1/13/2007
12/31/2006 - 1/6/2007
12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006
12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006