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$16 mil more than the next best bid
Perhaps, as evidenced by some of the comments to some of my recent baseball market-themed posts, I'm a bit naive when it comes down to basic economic concepts. But if no one else is bidding on Barry, why give him $16 million? I understand for prestige purposes, but objectively, given his injury history and defensive liability, I'd expect a player of his track record to sign an incentive-laden deal much like Frank Thomas did last year, especially if no other team was offering him nearly that much (if any, according to some reports) money.

Posted by Bret Cohen at 12/7/2006 11:29:00 PM
Comments (6)

Save the Small Market Teams from Themselves!
I can only feel bad when a team like the Royals, set on turning their dreadful past 10-plus seasons of existence into something more promising and meaningful, finally get a chance to open their pocketbook only to sign...Gil Meche. Five years, $55 million. A rebuilding franchise could spend that amount of money in an infinite number of ways.

I'm not exactly splitting the atom when I point out that this year's free-agent market is very weak. However, there needs to be some kind of safeguard against these sort of mishaps. The government does this with seatbelt laws, age limits on purchasing and enjoying booze and smokes, etc....baseball needs to have a system of rules in place to protect the league's "children" from themselves as well. When you look at the big picture, the Royals are essentially the league's 16-year-old kid who just got his driver's license (the Yankees, if you must know, are the retired old man, looking for the nose-hair trimmer before racing to Country Kitchen for the early-bird special). Meche has a 55-44 career record with a 4.65 ERA in 147 games. Sure, Ted Lilly got $40 million over four years from the Cubs, but it's the Cubs (and as a Brewers' fan I'm just excited about having a soft-tossing lefty on board for Prince Fielder to pound into the Miller Lite Beer Pen).

The point is this. Gramps enjoys his biscuits and gravy and saves a few bucks in the process (that good 401k helps too), allowing him to pay guys like Carl Pavano at the end of the day. He can afford it, and nobody needs to feel sorry for him. But did someone put LSD in owner David Glass' milkshake? We're talking about a man who pinched pennies at Wal-Mart back when pennies were made of copper. What the heck is he doing spending like this, when he could get a serviceable arm like John Thompson out of the $5.50 DVD bin? It is as if the kid just got his first paycheck, and it's burning a hole in his pocket.

Posted by Derek VanRiper at 12/7/2006 2:00:00 PM

Comments (7)

Baseball Market Predicting
A recent discussion went something like this:

"J.D. Drew for 5 years at $70 mil OR Damon for 4 at $52 mil."

"It's apples and oranges with Damon and Drew, though. Last year was last year. Hindsight, 20-20. The market changed. That's how these things work. OBVIOUSLY the Damon deal is better, now. No one questions that. But the comparison isn't fair because the context is different."

How is the context different? Aren't these owners supposed to be savvy businessmen who have accumulated enormous wealth and are managing a multi-million dollar company? Shouldn't there be some sort of analyst or economist that can forecast the financial landscape of the league the next few years? At least, in the context of Damon, shouldn't there be an ability to forecast the financial landscape of the free agent market for the very next season, given the upcoming free agent class, the general financial state of the league, expiring contracts, etc.? I'm not saying that teams aren't doing this, but I'm not so quick to excuse Boston for letting Damon walk and paying Drew that much -- assuming, arguendo, that Damon is in fact the better value -- if their sole excuse after the fact is that the market is more favorable toward players the next season? I'm not saying that happened either, but I don't underestimating the market should be a valid excuse.

Posted by Bret Cohen at 12/6/2006 3:42:00 PM

Comments (4)

Altanta Gets Screwed in this Three-Way
Altanta is discussing sending Tim Hudson and Adam LaRoche to the Mariners for Rafael Soriano and, from San Francisco, Armando Benitez. The Mariners would complete the deal by sending Richie Sexson to the Giants.

Is this not an absolute steal for the Mariners? Adam LaRoche is 27, hit 32 homers last year with a .915 OPS and is left-handed, which is a good fit for Safeco Field. Granted, Hudson isn't what he was a few years back, but while his K/BB has dropped the last couple years, the real problem has been the spike in his HR rate, which should drop at Safeco.

LaRoche made less than $500 grand last season. Sexson is due to make $14 million this season. Hudson, set to make $6M -- a bargain these days -- definitely upgrades a rotation that is seeking two new starters.

Soriano and Benitez would upgrade the Atlanta bullpen, but both have lingering injury questions. And isn't that a lot to give up for two set-up guys for Bob Wickman?

Am I wrong here or is Atlanta getting hosed?

Posted by Jason Thornbury at 12/6/2006 10:08:00 AM

Comments (3)

Lester is 'Cancer-Free'
Great news for John Lester and Red Sox fans. Lester's non-Hodgkins lymphoma, which ended his season last year, is in remission and Lester expects to be in spring training. The guy is 22 and found himself in a battle with cancer. Unbelievable. Congrats to Lester for beating it (knock on wood).

Posted by Jason Thornbury at 12/6/2006 9:26:00 AM
Comments (0)

J.D. Drew's Signing
There's a lot of talk on our internal message board expressing disapproval of the Red Sox's deal with J.D. Drew, especially in comparison to the cheaper deal Johnny Damon signed last year. Without delving into the differences in the market between last year and this year (a pretty strong point in its own right), I think this signing is defensible, even in comparison to Damon's deal.

I think he was the best remaining player on the market, and when healthy, arguably more valuable than Carlos Lee. Yes, health is the rub, but he regularly posts an on-base percentage around .400, and he plays excellent defense. Yes, the power dropped off this year, in part due to his wrist injury, but even still, he had essentially the same OPS as Lee, in a far worse ballpark. He's also just six months older than Lee. I'll be quick to acknowledge that Damon had a great year and ultimately looks to be a good signing, but even now he's two years older than Drew. I think there's a pretty good chance that Drew outproduces Damon in years 2007-2009.

Posted by Jeff Erickson at 12/5/2006 10:46:00 PM

Comments (2)

Has Upton's Star Fallen So Far?
The Marlins are apparently inquiring cross-state in their search for a center fielder. It makes sense; they have the young pitching every other team (but especially one like Tampa Bay) covets, while the D-Rays have some options when it comes to their outfield. Rocco Baldelli was the initial name mentioned, but now BJ Upton's name has also surfaced, and his long-anticipated switch to CF may be just a few months away.

The thing in our update that made me do a double-take, though, was the closer: "The Marlins had been asking about Rocco Baldelli earlier this offseason, but it's rumored the Marlins did not offer enough pitching to get the Rays interested. Upton would come cheaper, of course."

Has Upton's value dropped so far that Rocco Baldelli would actually fetch more in a trade? Baldelli's power stroke developed nicely in 2006, and the Rays have painted themselves into a corner with Upton, it's true -- they've given up on him as a shortstop, don't seem to have room for him in the outfield, and are importing Akinori Iwamura to play third. That would seem to leave second base, a 'super-sub' type role for his first full MLB campaign, or another uniform as their options.

But it still boggles my mind that the former second overall pick, despite his recent problems, could be worth less on the open market than a guy coming off a career-best .339 OBP season (in fewer than 100 games, at that). If it's me, I part with Baldelli long before I give up on Upton.

But that's the question here: *is* it just me? Am I still just clinging to the past with Upton, and letting his ceiling blind me to the dangers of the floor we caught a glimpse of this past season?

Who would you rather have as your Opening Day center fielder in 2007: BJ Upton, or Rocco Baldelli?

Posted by Erik Siegrist at 12/5/2006 5:35:00 PM

Comments (4)

Baffled at Carpenter
With a guy like Vicente Padilla (4.50 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 156:70 K:BB ratio in 200 IP) getting over $11 million per year, why did Chris Carpenter (3.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 184:43 K:BB ratio in 221.2 IP, with a track record) settle for $13 million per over five years? Yes, he was signed for $7 million for 2007 and $9 million for 2009, and anything can happen injury-wise to hurt the potential for a big contract. But if Carpenter pitches well the next two years, he'd be due something $18 mil per for 5 or 6 years if he continues to pitch the way he does in the current market. This could be the equivalent of throwing $15 million down the drain (once you factor in the $10 million in raises he's getting the next couple years). I guess when you're dealing with numbers that big, it's not worth it to take the risk -- at least in Carpenter's eyes. And it does afford the team a little more flexibility to contend in the long haul.

Posted by Bret Cohen at 12/4/2006 6:44:00 PM
Comments (5)

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8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006