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How to Value Closers

You probably won't find more disagreement on a fantasy baseball topic than this. And I'm not just talking about verbal disagreement - I'm talking about what people actually do at the draft table. I've seen Mariano Rivera and in previous years, Eric Gagne, go in the second round of my 15-team mixed league. And there have been people like me who have waited until round 10 or 11 to draft my first closer, usually someone like Bob Wickman or Joe Borowski. Maybe this is coincidence, but in that league, I've always done best getting one guy (in past years, it was Francisco Cordero) in the sixth or seventh round, and maybe one more in the 10th or 11th. Sometimes, I'll draft a closer-in-waiting type for my reserve roster, and usually during the season, there are players to pick up. But I don't buy the cavalier attitude that people have who say: "Don't ever pay for saves, it's only one category, and there are plenty of guys on the waiver wire to pick up." First off, if your league is competitive enough to win while getting a 1 in a category, then fine, you can punt, and you'll probably do well in Ks and Wins as a result. But you had better have a good offense and not a terrible ERA and WHIP while you're at it - something that's tough to do with nine starters (who on average are worse than relievers in those categories). And if you don't think you're punting because it's so easy to pick up a closer, think again. While Otsuka, Borowski, Saito and others were great finds last year - there are 14 other teams in my league bidding on those guys, and I might end up getting Howry or Wheeler or Burgos or some other reliever who seemed to have the job, but didn't keep it. Plus, if you go all starters, you'll likely be behind in saves by the time you do plug the hole and will likely have to trade for them anyway, i.e., you'd hate to pick up a couple closers who cost you wins and Ks, and only gain three points in saves. The bottom line is you have a choice: (1) In a tight enough league where you can win despite being last in one category, you can punt saves altogether. (2) Or you can draft/buy closers in such a way that give you the most saves for your money. If you do (2), there's no perfect time to do it, and it varies by league (in a 4 x 4 NL only league, closers are legit. second round picks), or in a yahoo league which requires two relievers, you have to bump them up a bit. Again, my best success rate (which is admittedly anecdotal) is when I draft a decent closer a couple rounds after the initial run (this year that would be a guy like Huston Street) and then follow that up with a sketchier guy like Jason Isringhausen a few rounds later. One other note - Scott Pianowski made a good point on my radio show about bumping up closers with one obvious backup, e.g., a guy like Gagne who has Otsuka is safer than another sketchy closer who has no clear cut backup to get. Posted by Chris Liss at 3/23/2007 2:13:00 PM

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More Thoughts on the Papelbon Decision

The recent decision to move Jonathan Papelbon back into the closer’s role will have a major impact both on fantasy and real baseball. There are arguments to be made for both sides, but on the surface, it appears to be very bad news for the Boston Red Sox and pretty good, not great, news for fantasy owners. Papelbon wants to close. He says he feels most comfortable in that role and that he helps the team most when pitching in the ninth inning. While the former may be of importance, the latter is egregiously inaccurate. Having a player feel “comfortable” and ultimately most happy in his role needs to be taken into account. For years, Barry Bonds demanded he occupy the cleanup spot, despite the fact he would see 20-30 fewer at-bats over the course of a season and his high OBP played better earlier in the order. What Bonds wants, Bonds gets, and I agreed with the managerial decision to side with the slugger, whose contentment was ultimately more important. Happiness aside, the problem with this reasoning, however, is that when a player such as Papelbon thinks he’s “helping his team more,” he’s often misinformed and mistaken. No matter how hard the media try to sway our opinion, the ninth inning isn’t any more important than the first inning. Or the third inning. While the pressure of the ninth means a specific type of personality on the mound may perform better, it still doesn’t change the fact that Papelbon throwing 200 innings is more valuable to the Red Sox than him throwing 70. Hey, I have an idea; don’t start David Ortiz this year. Just wait until the ninth inning, and then use him exclusively as a pinch-hitter. After all, he’s clutch! Those 162 at-bats compared to last year’s 558 would be a similar decline (71 percent) to Papelbon’s (65 percent) projected starter innings to relief innings (200 to 70). What about those projected innings you ask? Well, maybe the biggest factor of all here, is Papelbon’s health. Benefits of pitching in the pen or the rotation are fairly specific to the individual. While Kerry Wood struggles nowadays when he reaches the 50-60 pitch count, and he’ll have a better chance of staying healthy in the pen, John Smoltz swears the bullpen nearly ruined his arm, and the rotation is much more conducive to his overall health. Papelbon came up through the minors as a starter, and the main reason Boston wanted to move him into the rotation in the first place was because the team’s medical staff recommended it. Regular rest and a routine was best for his already tenuous shoulder and long-term health. If this decision was made because Boston was uncomfortable with their alternate closing options (despite the fact Joel Pineiro has been lights out of late), it’s truly ridiculous. As far as fantasy is concerned, his value probably increases, as the “saves” category actually matters unlike in the real sport. However, you’ll lose 80-110 strikeouts, around 10-12 wins, and an ERA/WHIP of 3.50/1.25 in 200 innings is at least as valuable as an ERA/WHIP of 2.50/1.10 in 70 innings. Still, at minimum, his perceived fantasy value will probably shoot through the roof, so if you drafted him wanting the starter stats, I’d recommend you shop him immediately. Ultimately, the fantasy ramifications will come down to whether this decision benefits or damages his ability to stay healthy. In my opinion, the Red Sox just relinquished their title as World Series favorites over to the Yankees. Posted by Dalton Del Don at 3/23/2007 12:25:00 PM

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The O-Zone: Closing Thoughts

A few thoughts as we ride the closer carousel … * Philadelphia’s Tom Gordon has a sore elbow. Sore forearm, too. But he says it’s nothing to worry about. Sorry, Flash, but I’m worried. Significantly so. When you consider Gordon is 39 years old, has always had trouble staying healthy and battled a sore shoulder last year, there’s reason for concern. Every ache and pain needs to be taken seriously. I don’t think “normal spring training soreness” applies to him. Be careful when Gordon’s name comes up at the draft table. If you do draft Gordon, consider nabbing Geoff Geary as insurance in the end game or reserve draft. * Brian Wilson has received a lot of attention recently, as the Giants said he’ll be the man if Armando Benitez gets traded, is ineffective, suffers an injury or spontaneously combusts. But be aware that Wilson isn’t a sure thing to succeed as a closer -- at least not yet. Wilson has a live arm, no doubt about that. He struck out 53 batters in 58 innings between Triple-A and the bigs last year, so he’s got the stuff. Problem is, can he control that stuff? He issued 35 walks in those 58 innings. He needs to improve his control if he’s going to be a big-time closer. I’m not saying to avoid Wilson or anything like that. Just don’t overvalue him. * Six innings don’t mean much, particularly when they’re six spring-training innings. Nevertheless, it’s encouraging to see what Kansas City’s Octavio Dotel is doing: 10/1 K/BB, just two hits allowed. I’ve been in a couple of drafts so far where Dotel sunk to the late rounds. I guess that’s not surprising, considering his recent injury history and the fact that he plays for the lousy Royals. Dotel certainly looks good now, though, and he could be something of a sleeper. Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 3/23/2007 10:34:00 AM

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Projecting Josh Hamilton

I'm doing a sweep of players who need to have projections, and I've now gotten to Josh Hamilton. I think I'm going to open this up to the floor, to see what everyone else thinks. It's nearly impossible to project what he's going to do this year, given his sparse track record. Here's his professional experience: Hamilton's minor league stats That's right - only 15 games since 2002, and only 23 career games at Double-A in 2001. We usually say to ignore spring training stats, but what happens when they are the most relevant stats a player has accumulated in the last five years? Posted by Jeff Erickson at 3/23/2007 1:31:00 AM

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The O-Zone: Boston turns to Papelbon

One day after I condemned the Red Sox for siding with Julian Tavarez in the closer battle, they’ve decided to move Jon Papelbon back into the closer spot. As a Red Sox fan, I’m not sure how I feel about this. On one hand, I’m happy the Sox will have a dominant ninth-inning arm. On the other, I always think a good starter is more valuable than a good reliever, and I was looking forward to Papelbon giving this team 180 innings. A few thoughts about this … * The main reason the Sox wanted to move Papelbon into the rotation was because of his shoulder. Boston’s medical staff thought the regular rest and regimented workload that comes with being a starter would be beneficial to the 26-year-old. Makes sense, and the Sox were 100 percent willing to listen to their medical people. But then Mike Timlin got hurt. None of the other closer candidates stepped up. The Sox were looking at pitching Julian Tavarez in the ninth inning. So, Boston said, we need a closer. Screw the medical staff’s advice -- we need Papelbon in the ninth. This is outrageous. By going against their medical experts’ advice, the Sox may be putting Papelbon at great risk. They could be sacrificing this long-term gem because of a short-term need. Reprehensible, really. Boston’s management failed to bring in a quality closer, so now they’ll jeopardize the career of a young man. If you own Papelbon in a keeper league, you better pray. * Be careful with Papelbon as far as fantasy goes. Will his shoulder hold up? Is he even 100 percent now? Will he close for the whole season? Will the Sox try to acquire another stopper? All up in the air at this point. Papelbon has elite skills, but you can’t rank him among the Joe Nathans and Mariano Riveras because of this uncertainty. * If you already drafted, find out who took Papelbon in your league. Whoever did was expecting Papelbon to be a starter, so now he might be a) looking for another starter and b) trying to deal a surplus of saves. Maybe you two can work out a deal. Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 3/22/2007 2:32:00 PM

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Is Outfield More Scarce than Third Base in 2007?

In most leagues you need to start five outfielders which means you have to go 60-deep in a 12-team mixed league. For third baseman, you just need 1.5 at most (because first base is traditionally considered the deeper of the two positions). Here are my top-15 3B: Alex Rodriguez David Wright Miguel Cabrera Aramis Ramirez Garrett Atkins Chone Figgins Ryan Zimmerman Troy Glaus Scott Rolen Chipper Jones Alex Gordon Morgan Ensberg Mark Teahen Hank Blalock Eric Chavez I've left off guys like Joe Crede, Adrian Beltre, Edwin Encarnacion, Aubrey Huff, Akinori Iwamura and Chad Tracy, who could arguably be on the this, and of course, up and coming players like Andy Marte, B.J. Upton and Kevin Kouzmanoff. The 50-60th outfielders on RotoWire's cheatsheet are thinner than that in my opinion - and in any event, it's close. The bottom line is that when choosing between Carlos Beltran and David Wright in Round 1, don't automatically give Wright extra points for positional scarcity. Posted by Chris Liss at 3/21/2007 6:04:00 PM

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The O-Zone: Julian Tavarez?

So Julian Tavarez is the front-runner to be the Red Sox closer. Julian Tavarez. Wow. As I shake my head and mutter to myself, let’s look at this from a fantasy perspective first. Even if Tavarez is officially named Boston’s closer, he’s still not worth more than a buck or two, and he shouldn’t be taken until the final rounds of a straight draft. There’s so much not to like here. Tavarez doesn’t have the dominance a big-league closer needs. Heck, his 5.11 K/9 last year wasn’t even league-average, much less closer-worthy. Tavarez’ control isn’t exactly impeccable, either. He walked 44 in 98 2/3 innings last season. That’s obviously way too many for a ninth-inning pitcher. As for mental makeup -- the “guile” Ron Shandler speaks of -- well, that’s a laugh. Tavarez’ mercurial moodiness is not a good trait for a closer to have. Ice water doesn’t run through his veins -- more like Tabasco sauce. This is a disaster waiting to happen. Saves are saves, but don’t expect Tavarez to get many of them. He won’t last long as a closer. From a real-life perspective, making Tavarez the closer is even more exasperating. The Sox spend $140 million, and they can’t find a stud to nail down the ninth inning? The Sox can spend $50 million just to talk to someone, but they can’t afford a quality closer? Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 3/21/2007 2:09:00 PM

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The O-Zone: Igawa and Karstens

According to recent reports, the Yankees might ship Kei Igawa to the minors to begin the season. If they do, Jeffrey Karstens would crack New York’s rotation. This news surprised me, but I wouldn’t go tearing up my cheat sheets just yet. A couple of things: 1. If Karstens does win a big-league job, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to hold it for long. Last year in Triple-A, Karstens had just a 48/30 K/BB in 73 2/3 innings. Nothing special there. He wasn’t great with the big-league squad last season, either. His control was good -- 11 walks in 42 2/3 innings -- but he struck out just 16, gave up six home runs and yielded a ton of fly balls (0.67 G/F). Karstens flashed some fine skill in Single-A and Double-A, so the 24-year-old does have potential. He just doesn’t seem ready for prime time yet. 2. The Yankees paid $26 million just for the right to talk to Igawa. $26 million! Then they signed him to a five-year, $20 million contract. You don’t throw money like that at a player, then have him spend significant time in Scranton. Don’t expect Igawa to be down on the farm for long, if at all. Posted by Joe Oberkrieser at 3/20/2007 1:55:00 PM

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Players to Target

The terms sleeper and bust have officially become irrelevant. They held water back when I scored fantasy football by hand using the USAToday box scores, but with the advent of the computer, a true “sleeper” probably doesn’t exist anymore. It’s still the best way to describe what most truly mean by the term, which is identifying the players that are being undervalued. Without further ado, here are my players to target: Cole Hamels – Hamels’ ADP currently sits at 115.5, among the likes of Joe Crede (111.3), Adam LaRoche (114.3) and Chien-ming Wang (115.6). Absolutely ridiculous. Sure, Hamels comes with injury risk (a theme with the pitchers I’m targeting this year), but none of his previous ailments have ever been of the arm variety. His stuff, however, has never been questioned; featuring one of the very best changeups in the game, Hamels posted a tiny 2.60 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over the final two months last season. He also sported a 76/19 K/BB ratio over 69 1/3 innings during that span. If he throws 220 innings, he’ll enter next year as a top-10 and possibly top-5 fantasy starter. Jonathan Papelbon – They say a pitcher’s ERA typically increases by about 30 percent when switched from the bullpen to the starting rotation. So even if Papelbon falls in the average range, we’re looking at an ERA at 1.20 this year. OK, maybe last season’s 0.92 mark isn’t realistic in its ability to hold up, but you get the point. Papelbon is healthy and excelling this spring and has been somewhat forgotten now removed from the closer’s role and with flashy Dice-K now in Beantown. Papelbon’s ADP is 143.6 right now, nestled in between Adrian Gonzalez and Eric Byrnes. Matsuzaka’s is almost 50 spots earlier (94.1), and there’s at least a decent chance he outpitches the import. While his strikeout rate should decline now in the rotation, Papelbon makes a fine mid-round target this year. John Patterson – After forearm surgery in July, Patterson could have attempted to return in September but instead elected to give himself a full offseason of rest, bettering the chances of him entering this season at full strength. While he remains an injury concern, Patterson is such an asset in strikeouts and WHIP, he cannot be forgotten about. Pitching for the Nationals means wins won’t be plentiful, but calling RFK Stadium home increases his upside. An ADP of 228.1 is simply far too low. Alex Rios - Rios is hardly an unknown commodity, but at this point, his potential is greater than most give him credit for. The news of Lyle Overbay occupying the second spot in the lineup isn’t great for Rios, but maybe he’ll do more running hitting lower in the order. He’s always had the skill set and was finally living up to that potential last year before a staff infection essentially ruined his season. Before succumbing to the injury, Rios had a .968 OPS in 72 games. If you prorate his stats from then on, his line would look like this: .330, 34 homers, 119 RBI, 104 runs and 20 steals. Those type of counting stats over a full season are probably a tad overly optimistic, but you get the idea. Treat him like a top-20 outfielder. Nick Markakis - Markakis had a very up-and-down first season; he clubbed just two homers over his first 202 at-bats but then hit .366 over a three month stretch. During August, he hit 10 long balls and finished with a 1.140 OPS, only to struggle throughout the final month of the season. This year, he’s set to bat third in a solid Orioles lineup, and even if he doesn’t immediately become the star he will one day, a .290-25-100-100 line should arrive as soon as this season. Kelly Johnson - This sleeper is of the catatonic variety, as Johnson’s ADP doesn’t even show up in the top-400, meaning he’s going undrafted in a whole lot of leagues. A Chipper Jones clone in the batter’s box, Johnson has both the skills and the opportunity to be a valuable fantasy commodity this year. Mostly forgotten after missing all of last year following elbow surgery, Johnson is a former first round draft pick with tremendous plate discipline. He also possesses 25-homer power. He hasn’t been officially named it yet, but Johnson should act as the Braves’ starting second basemen this year and even has a chance at occupying the leadoff spot in their lineup. Becoming MI eligible will only increase his value, and with his on-base skills, he’s a threat to score 100 runs. There likely isn’t a better player currently sitting on your waiver wire. Posted by Dalton Del Don at 3/20/2007 11:24:00 AM

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5/25/2008 - 5/31/2008
5/18/2008 - 5/24/2008
5/11/2008 - 5/17/2008
5/4/2008 - 5/10/2008
4/27/2008 - 5/3/2008
4/20/2008 - 4/26/2008
4/13/2008 - 4/19/2008
4/6/2008 - 4/12/2008
3/30/2008 - 4/5/2008
3/23/2008 - 3/29/2008
3/16/2008 - 3/22/2008
3/9/2008 - 3/15/2008
3/2/2008 - 3/8/2008
2/24/2008 - 3/1/2008
2/17/2008 - 2/23/2008
2/10/2008 - 2/16/2008
2/3/2008 - 2/9/2008
1/27/2008 - 2/2/2008
1/20/2008 - 1/26/2008
1/13/2008 - 1/19/2008
1/6/2008 - 1/12/2008
12/30/2007 - 1/5/2008
12/23/2007 - 12/29/2007
12/16/2007 - 12/22/2007
12/9/2007 - 12/15/2007
12/2/2007 - 12/8/2007
11/25/2007 - 12/1/2007
11/18/2007 - 11/24/2007
11/11/2007 - 11/17/2007
11/4/2007 - 11/10/2007
10/28/2007 - 11/3/2007
10/21/2007 - 10/27/2007
10/14/2007 - 10/20/2007
10/7/2007 - 10/13/2007
9/30/2007 - 10/6/2007
9/23/2007 - 9/29/2007
9/16/2007 - 9/22/2007
9/9/2007 - 9/15/2007
9/2/2007 - 9/8/2007
8/26/2007 - 9/1/2007
8/19/2007 - 8/25/2007
8/12/2007 - 8/18/2007
8/5/2007 - 8/11/2007
7/29/2007 - 8/4/2007
7/22/2007 - 7/28/2007
7/15/2007 - 7/21/2007
7/8/2007 - 7/14/2007
7/1/2007 - 7/7/2007
6/24/2007 - 6/30/2007
6/17/2007 - 6/23/2007
6/10/2007 - 6/16/2007
6/3/2007 - 6/9/2007
5/27/2007 - 6/2/2007
5/20/2007 - 5/26/2007
5/13/2007 - 5/19/2007
5/6/2007 - 5/12/2007
4/29/2007 - 5/5/2007
4/22/2007 - 4/28/2007
4/15/2007 - 4/21/2007
4/8/2007 - 4/14/2007
4/1/2007 - 4/7/2007
3/25/2007 - 3/31/2007
3/18/2007 - 3/24/2007
3/11/2007 - 3/17/2007
3/4/2007 - 3/10/2007
2/25/2007 - 3/3/2007
2/18/2007 - 2/24/2007
2/11/2007 - 2/17/2007
2/4/2007 - 2/10/2007
1/28/2007 - 2/3/2007
1/21/2007 - 1/27/2007
1/14/2007 - 1/20/2007
1/7/2007 - 1/13/2007
12/31/2006 - 1/6/2007
12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006
12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006