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Defending Bonds
Our friend Joe Sheehan at Baseball Prospectus continues to defend Barry Bonds and wonders why there isn't more animosity toward players such as Derrick Turbow who have also failed drug tests .

Here is my open letter response to him:

Joe,

In your last column, you wrote:

"The situations aren't entirely parallel, but I again argue that if we, as a society and as baseball fans, think steroid use is so evil as to make Barry Bonds a pariah, then where is the opprobrium for the players who have tested positive?"

I think you are missing a big part of the reason Bonds has become such a big media and public pariah: The cover-up is worse than the crime.

A big part of why Bonds is so reviled is that he's not admitting that he's broken the rules.

Turnbow is a good example here. Is he maintaining his innocence? I'm not familar with all his comments, but my guess is that he's probably served his time, admitted his mistake (at least implicity if not publicly) and moved on. So have the fans. Where is the outcry against Jason Giambi this summer? Funny what a little contrition will do there.

But Bonds has maintained, and continues to maintain, his innocence despite reportedly testifying in court that he took steroids and despite the volume of evidence against him in the book "The Game of Shadows").

If Bonds admitted that he took steriods and argued that 1) they were not banned by MLB when he was using them 2) steriods have only a very small enhancement on performance 3) he should decide what he does with his body, then the debate would be very different. I would have strong disagreements with all the above, but it would be a different debate.

But by lying about his steriod use, he's admitting that he's cheating [breaking either actual rules/laws or generally-accepted sports ethics] and has no consience about it. No matter what you think of steriods, that kind of behavior shows no respect for the game or the fans. For that, combined with his accomplishments in the game, I think his pariah status is well deserved.

Posted by Peter Schoenke at 4/28/2006 1:38:00 PM

Comments (5)

What's up with Casey Kotchman?
On the heels of the Angels' recent vote of confidence despite Kotchman's abysmal .148 batting average - now is a good time to dig a bit deeper to try to understand just what's going on.

Let's look at three key indicators over four different breakdowns, in the following order:
1-2005 Triple-A Salt Lake Totals
2-2005 Anaheim Totals
3-2006 Anaheim Totals
4-2006 Anaheim April 14th thru April 27th

K:BB Ratio: 0.930 / 1.200 / 2.250 / 2.000
As expected, Kotchman's plate discipline declined upon his promotion to Anaheim last year - albeit a slight decline. A K:BB ratio of 1.200 is solid for ANY major leaguer, especially so for a rookie. By looking at his K:BB ratio for 2006 we can see a clear decline in plate discipline - from 1.200 in 2005 to 2.250 in 2006 so far. Over the past 14 days his rate has improved slightly to 2.000, but not enough to be statistically significant over such a small sample size.

CONCLUSION: Kotchman is displaying a much less discerning eye at the plate so far in 2006. This is a highly repeatable skill, so the primary explanation is that he is pressing too much right now.

K:PA Ratio: .099 / .128 / .138 / .111
The positive sign here is that Kotchman's K:PA ratio is NOT tightly correlated to his K:BB ratio. While his K:BB ratio is significanly worse in 2006, his K:PA ratio on the season is not significantly different in 2006 (.138) than it was in 2005 (.128) and in fact it has improved over the past 14 days (36 plate appearances) to .111.

CONCLUSION: Kotchman has maintained a consistent contact rate from 2005 to 2006 and has shown improvement over the past two weeks, despite hitting a measly .088 (3-for-34) over that span. That means that at least some portion of the differential in his batting average is due to a very low BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) - basically he's not hitting 'em where they ain't.

BB:PA Ratio: .106 / .106 / .062 / .056
Here's where we see the tight correlation with Kotchman's declining K:BB ratio. In the simplest of terms, he's lost his patience at the dish. This can help explain some part of his low BABIP - he's swinging at bad pitches and putting them into play. These are typically weak grounders and infield pop-ups.

CONCLUSION: Kotchman needs to relax. He's pressing at the plate. He isn't striking out more, he's just a little less selective in what's he's swinging at right now and it's costing him.

FINAL CONCLUSION: Kotchman will be fine as soon as he regains his selectivity at the plate - and the good news is that this is a highly repeatable skill. Whether he can work this out in Anaheim remains the question. Going 3-for-34 over a two week span is enough to make anyone start pressing. If he can stop pressing and not dig a bigger hole for himself, he should work his way out of this shortly. The Angels next four series are against some of the better pitching staffs in the AL: White Sox (4th), Oakland (8th), Detroit (2nd), Toronto (9th). If Kotchman can stay alive until the Toronto series, he may have a good shot at breaking out against them. If his struggles continue, look for him to get a mind-set adjustment at Triple-A Salt Lake for two or three weeks. In the meantime, we'll all be closely watching the BB column next to Kotchman's name in the box scores.

Posted by Randy Hale at 4/28/2006 9:43:00 AM
Comments (3)

If You Can Read This, You Can Outrun Toby Hall
Watching the Yanks-Devil Rays game today, I saw Toby Hall rip a ball off the wall in the left field corner of Yankee Stadium. Hideki Matsui ran over to retrieve it, waited for it to bounce softly off the wall into his glove and made the long throw back toward the infield. For God knows what reason, the camera showed Toby Hall still on first base.

This wasn't a shot off the Green Monster in left center at Fenway, retrieved off the wall on the fly. This was deep in the corner in the Bronx, and it took two or three minutes to get back to the infield. A subsequent shot of Hall waddling out of the box at 6 mph explained his decision not to attempt doubles under any circumstances, but there's no doubt he would have made it in this case.

But the whole thing got me thinking: Is there any bare minimum speed required to play professional baseball? And how does it compare to the bare minimum required for other sports like golf, bowling or chess?



Posted by Chris Liss at 4/27/2006 6:47:00 PM

Comments (7)

Delmon Flips Out...
When I read about the incident, it sounded like a "flip", but the video tape shows that the "flip" had a little mustard on it...could cost the kid 30-50 games...maybe more...

Posted by Mike D. at 4/27/2006 1:56:00 PM
Comments (4)

Is it time to jump off the Lidge?
I thought Brad Lidge was in trouble when the Pirates nearly rallied to beat him last week, but a look at the numbers shows he's had trouble all season long. He does have seven saves, but only one of those a perfect 1-2-3 inning. Remember when he'd just mow down whatever was in front of him in short order? That hasn't been happening. Maybe he just needs to warm up. His velocity is still there. He just doesn't look as confident as he used to. His earned run average is 6.94, and he's walked 10 batters in 11 2/3 innings. Last year he issued just 23 free passes total in 70 2/3 innings. If he goes on a 20-appearance scoreless stretch I don't think anyone would be surprised. Houston is showing faith in him, and rightfully so. I don't know of anyone there who could take over for him anyhow. But if nothing else, it makes you wonder. Has he been overworked?

Posted by Topper at 4/26/2006 8:04:00 AM
Comments (1)

Tort Lawyers to Sponsor Hit by Pitch
I wrote in Charging the Mound about how LoJack sponsored John Buck being caught stealing down 7-0 in the sixth inning during one of last week's White Sox-Royals games. And the more I think about it, the more absurd it is. It's one thing to sponsor a home run, or a complete game - excellence in sports linked to excellence at whatever the sponsor does.

But when you get literal and specific, like linking a caught stealing on the basepaths to being caught stealing a car, (or to catching a crook trying to steal your car), it's a slippery slope. Next, we'll have the California Tort Lawyers sponsor every hit by pitch. "This hit by pitch is sponsored by the California Association of Tort Lawyers - if you or someone you know gets drilled by a hard object, you can sue them for assault and battery." Or after two players collide in the outfield, "This collision is sponsored by Geico auto insurance - when you get into an accident, our collision specialists will..." "This pulled hamstring is sponsored by..." "This rain delay is sponsored by ..." "This terrorist attack is sponsored by..." Etc., etc.

Maybe RotoWire can sponsor the next charging of the mound. If we get an Izzy Alcantara or a George Bell situation, maybe I'll get some local Tae Kwon Do place to co-sponsor it with us.



Posted by Chris Liss at 4/24/2006 4:23:00 AM

Comments (2)

Can you platoon a "Star"...in a fantasy context?
Piggybacking on Herb Ilk's post about platooning a "star" player in real life, can you afford to sit a "star" player in fantasy matchups in leagues with daily substitutions? A recent situation occurred where I was struggling to find starting time in my crowded outfield for a couple of guys who were having a poor start yet had murdered the scheduled pitcher in the past (thanks Shawn Green). When trying to figure out who to sit, I noticed Jason Bay -- my first round pick in this VORP league which rewards individual accomplishments (no points for runs or RBI, but lots for walks and total bases) -- was 1-for-17 lifetime against Jeff Suppan. I did a double-take and checked it again. It seemed like the perfect opportunity to perhaps "time the market" and get my slumping player in the lineup at a time he'd be heating up. In addition, Bay had been semi-slumping the previous week, so it seemed like a good opportunity to "time the market" in his case as well and give him a day off.

Well, though Green goes 2-for-4 with two singles and a caught stealing to earn me 1.9 points, I sit out Bay for the first time this season and he goes 2-for-2 with a home run, stolen base, and three walks for a total of 13.04 points, about 1/4 of his season total at the time. After beating myself up a bit, I started to wonder if it was acceptable to sit out a stud batter due to a poor historical matchup against the opposing pitcher. Based on my experience in this situation, I'd proffer that it is acceptable if the pitcher has also been a stud in the past -- for example, I might sit Scott Rolen against Pedro Martinez, against whom he has gone 1-for-11 in his career -- but not against a schlub like Jeff Suppan, at least not again.

Posted by Bret Cohen at 4/23/2006 1:41:00 PM

Comments (2)

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5/6/2007 - 5/12/2007
4/29/2007 - 5/5/2007
4/22/2007 - 4/28/2007
4/15/2007 - 4/21/2007
4/8/2007 - 4/14/2007
4/1/2007 - 4/7/2007
3/25/2007 - 3/31/2007
3/18/2007 - 3/24/2007
3/11/2007 - 3/17/2007
3/4/2007 - 3/10/2007
2/25/2007 - 3/3/2007
2/18/2007 - 2/24/2007
2/11/2007 - 2/17/2007
2/4/2007 - 2/10/2007
1/28/2007 - 2/3/2007
1/21/2007 - 1/27/2007
1/14/2007 - 1/20/2007
1/7/2007 - 1/13/2007
12/31/2006 - 1/6/2007
12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006
12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006