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Magic Number Madness
An important four-game series begins tonight in Chavez Ravine between the Padres and Dodgers. L.A. leads the N.L. West over San Diego by just a half-game, and the Padres have opened up a 2 1/2 game wild card lead over Philadelphia and San Francisco. It's no surprise that David Wells and Greg Maddux are making important September starts on Friday night, but it is interesting that they are doing so for the Padres and Dodgers, not the Red Sox and Cubs.

The Padres are 11-3 against the Dodgers this season, and can take major steps towards securing their second straight N.L. West title if that streak continues this weekend. What most people fail to realize is that both of these teams are likely to qualify for the postseason. San Diego's 2 1/2 game wild card lead (three games in the loss column) doesn't sound like a lot, but it is. They have 17 games remaining in the regular season, while their closest competitors (Philly and San Fran) have 16 games. If the Padres continue at their current .524 winning percentage, they will go 9-8 down the stretch. That means that the Phils and Giants will have to close 11-5 just to force a playoff -- a .688 winning percentage. Not too likely.

The Padres and Dodgers are in an excellent position right now. It's like having a three-game lead at the beginning of the NFL season. Of course, both want to win the west in order to secure a likely divisional series matchup against the Cardinals and not the Mets.

San Diego will be a very interesting team if they do, indeed, qualify for the playoffs. The number one question asked by playoff fantasy owners is "how long will they be around?" The answer could be a while. The Padres have a solid starting rotation (Jake Peavy, Chris Young, David Wells and Woody Williams), and have winning records against St. Louis (2-1) and Los Angeles (11-3) in 2006. The Pads were just 2-5 against the Mets this year, but have a good chance of avoiding New York until the NLCS. Plus, the Padres shape up better in the playoffs (with their N.L.-best staff ERA) than they do in a marathon regular season. I'll write plenty more about this in October, but the Padres are a team to watch. Look for them in the postseason for the second consecutive season.

Posted by Ted Rossman at 9/15/2006 10:50:00 AM

Comments (0)

Is Liriano destined for Tommy John?
So I was asked today: If Liriano has a mild tear of his ulnar collateral ligament,isn't it a matter of when and not if he needs Tommy John surgery? I considered it - and unfortunately, the answer is not an easy yes or no. Here's why. If a player is being reported as having a mild "tear" that sounds like a little more than the typically reported "sprain" - and even though a sprain is, in fact, a tear, it can be microscopic - hard to visualize, resolves easily - and for whatever reason is rarely reported as a tear. The fact that they're calling it a tear suggests a little more (although I have no evidence of that obviously, just a hunch) - and when you're talking about a pitcher, the further the degree of damage, the more likelihood he's headed for the TJ - especially a young guy with a big future. It's all a continuum - and at some point you decide (the MD decides) that you're essentially past the point of no return and the surgery is recommended. Of course, it's also an issue of timing. Surgery soon would put him back potentially in time for the end of next year - depends on a number of factors - but could mean not back until spring '08. However, if they DON'T do surgery, shut him down, and then in spring he fails, ends up needing it, then he's lost another season (wouldn't be back before mid-'08). Now to flip it. If it is indeed a Gr I sprain that just didn't have enough total rest, they can splint him now for 6 weeks to allow the ligament to scar over better (obviously he came back to pitch within 6 weeks so more rest could be all he needs), then progress him back gradually and he could (emphasis on could) be fine. Another option would be to scope it, check it out for real, and decide then whether he needs the full procedure or whether a little clean up and scar repair would do the trick. So - try and sort that all out. Here's my hunch for what it's worth. They will likely scope it and decide from there. My guess is the 2nd opinion he's waiting on is with the revered James Andrews. If he's done for the season, there's no setback with a scope - and then they'll know free and clear what he really needs.

Posted by Stephania Bell at 9/15/2006 2:41:00 AM
Comments (3)

Braves Dynasty Ends
The Braves were officially eliminated from the NL East Division race on Wednesday. It's the first time since 1990 they will not have won the division - ending a record run of 14 consecutive seasons.

The run ended because the bullpen has been the worst in baseball and the wheels fell off the starting pitching as Tim Hudson's declining K/BB ratio finally caught up to him and with injuries to Kyle Davies, Chuck James and Horacio Ramirez. Also the minor league system, which bailed out the team last year, was finally empty. The Braves were so desperate for pitching and had such few alternatives in the minors that at one point the bullpen had three pitchers who were basically out of baseball last season.

Can they rebound in 2007? The offense has scored the third most runs in the NL, so it's not really the problem. But here's the rotation for next season:

SP1 - John Smoltz - His $8 million option for next season may be the best value in baseball.
SP2 - Chuck James
SP3 - Tim Hudson
SP4 - Kyle Davies
SP5 - Mike Hampton or Horacio Ramirez

That's not bad if Hudson can return to being an above average pitcher and if Hampton returns from Tommy John surgery - espcially if James and Davies stay healthy and continue their recent upward trend. GM John Schuerholz will need to spend liberally in the bullpen, however. Other than Joey Devine, who has a chronic back injury and may never pan out, there's not a lot of upside from the current lot.

I'd trade Adam LaRoche while he's hot this offseason for bullpen help and pitching depth. Despite his strong second half, I'm not convinced he can hit left-handed pitching. The move would also allow the Braves to move Chipper Jones to first base (he's locked up at $11 million a year through 2008) to reduce the wear on his oft-injured body.

So the Braves may not be dead yet. They'll just need to prove they can win in the Leo Mazzone-less era.

Posted by Peter Schoenke at 9/14/2006 2:16:00 PM

Comments (2)

Liriano Says Ouch!
Liriano left Wednesday's game with elbow pain. Tough break for the Twins. But should they have even attempted to bring him back this season? Yeah, they're in a playoff race, but we're talking about Liriano's future here. Plus, despite what seems to be the conventional wisdom, the Twins other pitchers aren't a disaster. Matt Garza has looked strong for the most part (his debut notwithstanding). Boof Bonser has been pretty good, too. He has a 38/7 K/BB since his August call-up. Carlos Sliva is a bit of a wild card because of his inconsistency, but he's not bad. And, of course, they still have Santana. If they were determined to bring Liriano back, the Twins should have at least put him in the bullpen and asked no more than inning an outing from him.

Posted by Jason Thornbury at 9/13/2006 12:28:00 PM
Comments (5)

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