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Should you cut a nonproducing sleeper/rookie for a hot free agent?
How long do you give your sleeper/young players to produce before cutting them loose? This is always one of the key questions early in any season, and answering it correctly any given year can be the difference between a good team and a so-so one. The problem is that thereís no consistent right answer. If you cut Ben Gordon in his rookie season after his bad first week you missed out on the eventual 6th Man of the Year. On the other hand, last year I held onto Randy Foye long enough to miss out on hot early season pickups like Leandro Barbosa and Monta Ellis. Itís hard to gauge.

This season, Iím approaching it on a team-by-team basis but Iím more likely to cut my losses early for a hot producer than Iíve been in the past. Iíve already cut Thaddeus Young (one of my favorite rookie sleepers) for Antoine Wright in one league, and Marco Belinelli for Damon Stoudamire in another league. My feeling this year (after being burnt last year) is that Iíd rather take advantage of a hot player and hope that, at the very least, I can find a tradeable. And then later on, if it appears that my former young player is about to start producing, hopefully I can get to them on the FA wire before any of my league-mates do. It is risky, but every decision in fantasy sports carries risk, and sometimes risk and reward go hand-in-hand.

Posted by Professor at 11/2/2007 9:02:00 AM
Comments (7)

First Impressions
Kevin Durant is living up to the hype. Actually, he's been very impressive thus far. Perhaps most impressive is his ability to run the floor, leading the fastbreak on more than a few occasions in Seattle's first two games. He needs experience, muscle and a consistent shot, but you can't be disappointed in a 19-year-old who scores 18 and 27 points on back-to-back nights in his first two NBA games.

Still, this is a team that will be lucky to win more than 25 games. As good as Durant is, the team has a glaring need for a go-to guy. It has no fourth-quarter leader, and, despite P.J. Carlesimo's devotion, can't play two licks of defense.

The Sonics have some talent, but it's all at a similar level (Watson, Ridnour, West at PG, for example), so an otherwise productive player is going to have to sit. At the two/three spots, Szczerbiak has been left out. But how do you get him 20 minutes a game when you have Durant, Jeff Green and Damien Wilkins who have to get good minutes? In the front court, what will happen to Collison and Wilcox's minutes when Kurt Thomas and Robert Swift return from injury? The result is going to be a bunch of different lineups and rotations until Carlesimo decides what he likes. That makes it hard to bank on anyone other than Durant and, probably, Wilcox for fantasy production.

The question is, will the Sonics, in likely their last year in Seattle, win more games than the 23 they won in their first year in Seattle? It's going to be close.

Posted by Jason Thornbury at 11/2/2007 12:32:00 AM

Comments (1)

Does Size Matter?
Yesterday, I heard what was probably the most convincing argument in favor of the Eddy Curry/Zach Randolph experiment in New York.

Remarkably, I heard it on Stephen A. Smith's radio show.

Stephen A. -- in an interview with Randolph -- theorized that, because so many teams in the Eastern Conference have the ability to play small, the Knicks won't actually need to put Curry and Randolph on the floor together that often. And what they'll have, in effect, is a 20-and-10 guy on the floor for 48 minutes per game as they mix the two big guys with David Lee or Randolph Morris or Renaldo Balkman.

I didn't think much of it at the time... but then I watched the Nets play significant chunks of last night's win with Jason Kidd, Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson and Antoine Wright on the floor.

There anything to this? Are we about to see a lot of small ball in the NBA? And is this a good thing?

Posted by Charlie Zegers at 11/1/2007 6:37:00 AM
Comments (0)

Season Preview
Atlantic

1. Boston Celtics (2)
2. Toronto Raptors (8)
3. New Jersey Nets
4. New York Knicks
5. Philadelphia 76ers


Central

1. Detroit Pistons (1)
2. Chicago Bulls (3)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (5)
4. Milwaukee Bucks
5. Indiana Pacers


Southeast

1. Washington Wizards (4)
2. Miami Heat (6)
3. Orlando Magic (7)
4. Charlotte Bobcats
5. Atlanta Hawks


Southwest

1. Dallas Mavericks (2)
2. San Antonio Spurs (3)
3. Houston Rockets (5)
4. Memphis Grizzlies
5. New Orleans Hornets


Northwest

1. Utah Jazz (4)
2. Denver Nuggets (6)
3. Portland Trail Blazers
4. Seattle SuperSonics
5. Minnesota Timberwolves


Pacific

1. Phoenix Suns (1)
2. Los Angeles Lakers (7)
3. Golden State Warriors (8)
4. Los Angeles Clippers
5. Sacramento Kings


Postseason

Round 1: (1) Pistons over (8) Raptors, (2) Celtics over (7) Magic, (6) Heat over (3) Bulls, (5) Cavs over (4) Wizards

(1) Suns over (8) Warriors, (2) Mavs over (7) Lakers, (3) Spurs over (6) Nuggets, (4) Jazz over (5) Rockets

Round 2: (1) Pistons over (5) Cavs, (2) Celtics over (6) Heat, (1) Suns over (4) Jazz, (3) Spurs over (2) Mavs

Round 3: (2) Celtics over (1) Pistons, (3) Spurs over (1) Suns

Finals: Spurs over Celtics

Posted by Dalton Del Don at 10/31/2007 12:35:00 AM
Comments (3)

I Love Draft Lists
I love draft lists and recruiting rankings. It never ceases to amaze me how some players are drafted high or have five stars and flop while others turn out to be major steals. Even in a league as well scouted as the NBA, you see it all the time. Last week I looked at the NBA.com Fantasy Expert Draft and particularly focused on the 12 first-round selections. I was interested to see where these first-round selections were actually drafted the year they made themselves eligible. It was interesting to see the mix of number one overall picks along with one player (Gilbert Arenas) that was actually taken in the second-round of the 2001 NBA draft. I'm sure about 28 teams would love to do that draft over again. Here are the results:

The first overall pick Kevin Garnett was the fifth overall player taken in the 1995 draft. While this seems low, Garnett was one of the first modern NBA players to come directly out of high school into the draft. The four players selected ahead of him were Joe Smith , Antonio McDyess, Jerry Stackhouse, and Rasheed Wallace. Needless to say, none of the other players have had the fantasy impact that Garnett had or currently has.

The second pick was Kobe Bryant. Bryant was the 13th pick in the 1996 NBA draft. Again, this was when high school players coming directly to the pros was in its infancy, but I'm sure at least 10, if not all of the teams, would like to have that draft over again.

Shawn Marion was selected third in the NBA.com Expert Draft. Marion was the ninth pick in the 1999 NBA draft. This draft had some very good players go ahead of Marion, including Elton Brand, Baron Davis, Lamar Odom and Richard Hamilton. Still, from a fantasy perspective, there is no doubt that Marion was the top player of the 1999 draft.

The fourth pick was Steve Nash. Nash has been a fantasy late-bloomer with the Suns, but he has certainly bloomed. Nash was the 15th pick in the 1996 draft, the same year that Kobe was drafted. Three pretty good players went 13th-15th that year, Bryant, Peja Stojakovic and Nash.

LeBron James was the fifth selection in the NBA.com Expert Draft. James has absolutely lived up to the hype of being the first overall selection in the 2003 NBA draft both from his value to the Cavaliers and to fantasy owners everywhere.

The aforementioned Gilbert Arenas is pick six. Thirty names were called in 2001 before Arenas was drafted by the Warriors. Other than Pau Gasol and possibly Gerald Wallace, no other player has had nearly the impact on the fantasy game in that draft class. Two other very good players, Joe Johnson and Tony Parker were selected 10th and 28th respectively.

Jason Kidd was the seventh selection of this years NBA.com Fantasy Expert Draft. The experts got this one right as Kidd was the number two overall selection in the 1994 NBA draft.

Dirk Nowitzki comes in at pick eight in the draft. Nowitzki was taken ninth in the 1998 NBA draft and at the time was one of the highest drafted foreign-born players. It safe to say that times have changed, and Nowitzki has certainly panned out.

Coming in at number nine is Dwyane Wade. It's safe to say that if Wade were healthy, he'd be much higher on this list. Wade was selected fifth in the outstanding 2003 draft class that included fantasy studs LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh, Leandro Barbosa, and Josh Howard.

Yao Ming comes in at number 10 in the NBA.com Fantasy Expert Draft. Yao was the number one overall pick in the 2002 NBA draft and continues to get better and better. Long gone are the days when this pick was actually debated. Of his draft class only two other lottery selections, Amare Stoudemire and Caron Butler have established themselves as fantasy and real-life stars.

Pick 11 was Allen Iverson. Iverson was the number one overall pick in 1996, the same draft that produced two other first-round selections in this draft Kobe Bryant and Steve Nash. In retrospect, it looks like these should have been the top-three players selected in this draft, although Celtics star Ray Allen selected fifth, deserves consideration.

The final pick in round one was Josh Smith. Smith was the 17th pick in the 2004 NBA draft. Needless to say that Smith has far exceeded expectations both from a fantasy perspective and from his performance in Atlanta.

To briefly recap, Six of the first-round selections were taken in the top-5 of their respective drafts with three being the number one overall pick. Five other players were selected between picks nine and 17. Only one, Arenas was a second-round selection. It seems out of all this. what is safe to say is that players drafted six-eight in the NBA draft do not turn out to be elite fantasy players like guys drafted in the late-lottery to mid-first round. Since 1995, very few of those players turn out to be decent players period. It is amazing the amount of players who didn't pan out taken in that part of the draft. I don't know why that is, but it's interesting and one of the many reasons why I love draft lists.



Posted by Kyle Fisher at 10/30/2007 8:27:00 PM
Comments (0)

Cleaning Up
I don't have much time right now. I'm in the middle of processing the Pats' 8-0 start and watching the Red Sox close in on a World Series sweep. Tack on Boston College's BCS ranking, a decent start for the Bruins, and the expectation for the Celtics, and it's a good time to be a Boston sports fan.

The final week of the NBA preseason brought some significant fantasy news. Most notably were the injuries to Mike Bibby and David West. Bibby could miss up to three months, so there's significant fantsy impact in Sacto. Quincy Douby, who started Friday night in place of Bibby, is the first name floated as a replacment, but we could see Francisco Garcia and Orien Green get some extra minutes early on with John Salmons eventually getting some playing time when Ron Artest returns from his seven-game suspension. Don't be surprised to see coach Reggie Theus mix it up among the candidates. Looking outside the organization remains a possibility, but the Kings can only offer the minimum salary. John Lucas will be released by Houston on Monday and Earl Boykins remains a free agent.

(Brad Hawpe just homered off Manny Delcarmen followed by a Cory Sullivan single. 3-1 Sox over the Rox in the bottom of the seventh with Mike Timlin coming on.)

West is not expected to miss as much time as Bibby, but is doubtful for the season opener Wednesday after suffering a Grade 2 ankle sprain. Melvin Ely got the start Friday and scored 11 points (5-of-7) with five rebounds and two steals. Look for coach Byron Scott to utilize a rotation involving Ely, Ryan Bowen and Hilton Armstrong to fill in for West, who could miss up to three games...Speaking of the Hornets, Morris Peterson has been awful, shooting just 27.7 percent from the floor during preseason...And Peja Stojakovic scored 22 points Friday night after suffering a mild setback last week in his recovery from back surgery.

Looking at the older injuries, Rashard Lewis (ankle), Jason Kidd (back) and Chris Bosh (knee) each made appearances in the final week, indicating they will be ready to start the season. Bosh played limited minutes in back-to-back contests while Kidd played 30 minutes Friday night...Lewis, starting at power forward, played for the first time in three weeks, scoring 16 points in just under 32 minutes Friday night with five rebounds... The Nets didn't want to play Nenad Krstic in back-to-backs, so expect some kind of playing time limit to open the season. New Jersey coach Lawrence Frank still has to figure out his big -man rotation with Jamaal Magloire, Josh Boone and Sean Williams available. Magloire will likely eat up most of the available minutes.

(Bobby Kielty just made me breathe a little easier taking a Brian Fuentes fastball over the boards in left. 4-1 Sox over Rox.)

Looking at the still-contested starting jobs, Keith Bogans nailed down the starting shooting guard spot in Orlando. True, his competition battled injury, but Bogans was good enough to earn the starting spot...Rafer Alston will be Houston's starting point guard. We still have to see where this leaves Mike James and Luther Head, but we know Steve Francis won't be a factor...Ronnie Brewer is officially the starting shooting guard in Utah with Gordan Giricek coming off the bench. Giricek, meanwhile, should also get a healthy dose of the backup minutes at small forward with Matt Harpring slow to recover from what was called minor knee surgery in August... Portland coach Nate McMillan was expected to name his starting point guard this weekend, but is holding off for a few days. Jarret Jack and Steve Blake have been locked in a battle. Jack has performed better during the preseason and gives the Blazers a benefit of continuity from being the starter last season. However, Blake is the better defender and perimeter defense has been McMillan's concern in October. No matter what he decides, McMillan has two capable point guards and will probably split the minutes between the two...Still undecided are the fifth starters in Philadelphia, Denver and Toronto. Rodney Carner and Willie Green are in the mix and coach Mo Cheeks isn't tipping his hand. The Sixers could use another scorer in the starting five, and Green is the better offensive guy while giving Cheeks a tough defender...Jason Kapono started the last three preseason games and five of seven total for the Raptors, and looks to be the starter come Wednesday against Philadelphia. I don't expect Kapono to get 30- plus minutes, but he will offer 3-point value in reduced playing time...In Denver, Allen Iverson will start at point guard, leaving coach George Karl in search of a shooting guard when Denver opens the season Wednesday against Seattle. He won't have J.R. Smith to start the season, if he's tempted to trust him with the job. Right now, it's down to two unlikely candidates in Bobby Jones and Yakhouba Diawara. Jones has surprised Karl with his shooting during the preseason and can bring it on defense.



Gotta get back to the World Series. The Red Sox need my complete focus.



Posted by john clemeno at 10/28/2007 9:01:00 PM
Comments (1)

T-Wolves Notes
If you are a T-Wolves fan, check out this very candid interview with owner Glen Taylor at the St. Paul Pioneer Press. It really reads like if you met him on the street and asked him about recent T-Wolves history. Highlights: "Kevin [McHale] is very poor on details." "... if the star guy says the coach doesn't have it and we can't make it, it's kind of like, did Kevin (McHale) get rid of Flip, or did K.G. say none of us on the team trust Flip anymore?"

For the current T-Wolves roster, my deep sleeper after the preseason Ricky Davis trade is now Sebastian Telfair. He provided a spark in the last preseason game and could win big minutes at point guard with head coach Randy Wittman talking about playing Randy Foye at shooting guard. I'm sure Telfair is undrafted in almost every league, so it won't cost you much if it doesn't pan out.

Otherwise, grab any of these guys late: Rashad McCants, Corey Brewer, Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green and Craig Smith ... even Theo Ratliff and Chris Richard. Anyone could win playing time on the rebuilding team and minutes are everything in fantasy hoops. McCants and Smith are the ones who are the most likely to get bigger minutes after the trade, but anything can happen including more trades to get rid of Antoine Walker, Michael Doleac and maybe Greg Buckner.

Posted by Peter Schoenke at 10/28/2007 8:00:00 AM

Comments (0)

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1/25/2009 - 1/31/2009
1/18/2009 - 1/24/2009
1/11/2009 - 1/17/2009
1/4/2009 - 1/10/2009
12/28/2008 - 1/3/2009
12/21/2008 - 12/27/2008
12/14/2008 - 12/20/2008
12/7/2008 - 12/13/2008
11/30/2008 - 12/6/2008
11/23/2008 - 11/29/2008
11/16/2008 - 11/22/2008
11/9/2008 - 11/15/2008
11/2/2008 - 11/8/2008
10/26/2008 - 11/1/2008
10/19/2008 - 10/25/2008
10/12/2008 - 10/18/2008
10/5/2008 - 10/11/2008
9/28/2008 - 10/4/2008
9/21/2008 - 9/27/2008
9/14/2008 - 9/20/2008
9/7/2008 - 9/13/2008
8/31/2008 - 9/6/2008
8/24/2008 - 8/30/2008
8/17/2008 - 8/23/2008
8/10/2008 - 8/16/2008
8/3/2008 - 8/9/2008
7/27/2008 - 8/2/2008
7/20/2008 - 7/26/2008
7/13/2008 - 7/19/2008
7/6/2008 - 7/12/2008
6/29/2008 - 7/5/2008
6/22/2008 - 6/28/2008
6/15/2008 - 6/21/2008
6/8/2008 - 6/14/2008
6/1/2008 - 6/7/2008
5/25/2008 - 5/31/2008
5/18/2008 - 5/24/2008
5/11/2008 - 5/17/2008
5/4/2008 - 5/10/2008
4/27/2008 - 5/3/2008
4/20/2008 - 4/26/2008
4/13/2008 - 4/19/2008
4/6/2008 - 4/12/2008
3/30/2008 - 4/5/2008
3/23/2008 - 3/29/2008
3/16/2008 - 3/22/2008
3/9/2008 - 3/15/2008
3/2/2008 - 3/8/2008
2/24/2008 - 3/1/2008
2/17/2008 - 2/23/2008
2/10/2008 - 2/16/2008
2/3/2008 - 2/9/2008
1/27/2008 - 2/2/2008
1/20/2008 - 1/26/2008
1/13/2008 - 1/19/2008
1/6/2008 - 1/12/2008
12/30/2007 - 1/5/2008
12/23/2007 - 12/29/2007
12/16/2007 - 12/22/2007
12/9/2007 - 12/15/2007
12/2/2007 - 12/8/2007
11/25/2007 - 12/1/2007
11/18/2007 - 11/24/2007
11/11/2007 - 11/17/2007
11/4/2007 - 11/10/2007
10/28/2007 - 11/3/2007
10/21/2007 - 10/27/2007
10/14/2007 - 10/20/2007
10/7/2007 - 10/13/2007
9/30/2007 - 10/6/2007
9/23/2007 - 9/29/2007
9/16/2007 - 9/22/2007
9/9/2007 - 9/15/2007
9/2/2007 - 9/8/2007
8/26/2007 - 9/1/2007
8/19/2007 - 8/25/2007
8/12/2007 - 8/18/2007
8/5/2007 - 8/11/2007
7/29/2007 - 8/4/2007
7/22/2007 - 7/28/2007
7/15/2007 - 7/21/2007
7/8/2007 - 7/14/2007
7/1/2007 - 7/7/2007
6/24/2007 - 6/30/2007
6/17/2007 - 6/23/2007
6/10/2007 - 6/16/2007
6/3/2007 - 6/9/2007
5/27/2007 - 6/2/2007
5/20/2007 - 5/26/2007
5/13/2007 - 5/19/2007
5/6/2007 - 5/12/2007
4/29/2007 - 5/5/2007
4/22/2007 - 4/28/2007
4/15/2007 - 4/21/2007
4/8/2007 - 4/14/2007
4/1/2007 - 4/7/2007
3/25/2007 - 3/31/2007
3/18/2007 - 3/24/2007
3/11/2007 - 3/17/2007
3/4/2007 - 3/10/2007
2/25/2007 - 3/3/2007
2/18/2007 - 2/24/2007
2/11/2007 - 2/17/2007
2/4/2007 - 2/10/2007
1/28/2007 - 2/3/2007
1/21/2007 - 1/27/2007
1/14/2007 - 1/20/2007
1/7/2007 - 1/13/2007
12/31/2006 - 1/6/2007
12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006
12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006