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Favorite methods for choosing sleepers
Before the season starts, every fantasy owner is a genius. We all have the perfect draft strategy, we all will outsmart everyone else in our leagues, and we all know exactly which ďsleepersĒ to get in the middle/late rounds that are going to put our teams over the top. One of the problems, though, is that after awhile everyone reads the same magazines and websites and comes up with the same list of sleepers. Making pre-season prognostications can be full of hand-waving and guess-work, but at the same time there are some general formulas that really do help when trying to predict the next rags-to-fantasy riches story. Here weíll look at three of those formulas to help some of you come up with your own sleeper lists.

1. Young love/upside potential. One of my colleagues, Chris Liss, is famous for drafting entire teams of players that arenít old enough to drink. The idea here is to look for a very young, very athletic player that is either a rookie or was not quite ready to contribute last season but has the physical ability to be one of the best players in the NBA if he pans out. Lissís philosophy is that heíd rather pick a player that could legitimately win him a title than go with a more mundane player that canít be a difference maker. There is some validity to that train of thought, and because he does this Liss almost always finds at least one or two breakout players every season. The downside to this is that young guys, if they donít pan out, can be pretty worthless so I donít advocate taking your sleepers too early. Use the first few rounds to get a foundation of players you can trust, then go for the home run in the middle/later rounds.

Example candidates: Kevin Durant, Rajon Rondo, Randy Foye, Danny Granger, Andris Biedrins, Rudy Gay, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marvin Williams, Tyrus Thomas, Andrew Bogut, Andrew Bynum, Darko Milicic

2. Former superstars. Another method is to look for former stars that are coming off of uncharacteristically poor seasons. Sometimes that decline is due to correctable issues, such as an injury that may have healed or just a bad season. The downside to this is that sometimes the player declined because they were just washed up, or their previous success may have been a fluke, so be careful not to get so caught up in names that you end up with a 2003 All-Star team that canít even make the fantasy playoffs in 2008.

Examples candidates: Mike Bibby, Peja Stojakovic, Larry Hughes, Jason Williams, Andrei Kirilenko, Brad Miller, Shaquille OíNeal, Bonzi Wells, Boris Diaw

3. New situation. Follow the player movement. Sometimes all a struggling player needs is a new environment and fresh opportunity, so when someone is traded or goes to a new destination as a free agent there is always the chance that they may break out. Likewise, sometimes one player moving to a new team opens up opportunity for an overshadowed player to replace them and shine. Often, young upside guys and former stars would also fit into the new situation category as well.

Example candidates: Al Jefferson, Jason Richardson, Morris Peterson, Steve Francis, Sebastian Telfair, Stephen Jackson, Channing Frye, Craig Smith



Posted by Professor at 10/11/2007 5:40:00 PM
Comments (8)

Do you have to let it linger?
Pro athletes are always finding new and inventive ways to get hurt... from the horrifying YouTube-clip catastrophes involving Shawn Livingston or Jorge Garbajosa, to Elton Brand's routine workout turning into a ruptured Achilles, to Drew Gooden's legendary infected hair.

The worst injury of all, from a fantasy owner's perspective, is the one that lingers. A ruptured tendon or high ankle sprain -- even the dreaded microfracture knee surgery -- those are known quantities. You place your guy on the disabled list, and you move on. The lingering injury? No such luck. You're in limbo -- wondering every night if the crucial body part will be limber enough for your star forward to play 40 minutes. Or 30. Or 10.

Which brings me to the report, in today's New York Daily News, on Eddy Curry's bum shoulder. I'll pick out a couple of key points:

  • Curry's sore shoulder might sideline him for the Knicks' opener, and will likely [i]linger[/i] throughout the season.
  • This type of injury -- a tear of the labrum -- typically requires surgery before it will heal completely. The recovery time for such surgery is approximately three months.
  • He's at risk of further damage every time he reaches for a rebound.
(Actually, this is Eddy Curry we're talking about. That last bit really isn't much of a concern.)

So how should fantasy owners treat Curry in upcoming drafts? Very, very carefully. With Zach Randolph eating up space and shots now, Curry's status was a question mark even before the injury. If Curry misses a substantial chunk of training camp, it will be even more difficult for New York's two big men to learn to co-exist. In my mind, Curry's value drops from "mid round value" to "late round sleeper" for teams that are already set at center and willing to take the chance that he's a quick healer.

On the other hand, David Lee's stock is rising like the price of a barrel of oil. The active and energetic Lee is expected to be the Knicks' first big man off the bench. If Curry can't play -- or can only play limited minutes -- Lee suddenly becomes good bet to repeat last year's double-double average.

Posted by Charlie Zegers at 10/10/2007 10:31:00 AM
Comments (4)

The Marcus Camby Quandary
In all of fantasy sports, there might not be a player who comes with bigger risk and reward than Marcus Camby. According to NBA.com, Camby has an average draft position of 33. There's a pretty good argument stating that number is way too high, and a different one claiming it's too low. First, the negatives:

Camby is 33 years old, and it's no secret, a huge injury risk. The 70 games played last year were actually the second highest amount of his career. He's never not missed at least 10 games in a season. He's been sidelined an average of 26 games per year throughout his career. Also, he's not that great of a scorer, averaging just 10.9 ppg during his career.

Still, there are plenty of positives to go around as well: Camby was the Defensive Player of the Year in 2006-07 and has been the NBA's leading shot blocker the last two seasons. Denver's uptempo style fits his game well, and he fills the stat sheet in ways very few others can match. He's eligible at the toughest position to fill, center, and contributes more assists from the position (3.2 apg last season) than nearly any other big man. He's a monster on the glass (11.7 rpg in 2006) and limits his turnovers (just 1.5 tpg for his career). But Camby's real value comes in the hustle categories, as he averaged 1.2 steals and 3.3 blocks per game last season. The 4.5 combined spg and bpg was the best mark in the entire NBA last season, and you rarely see those kind of theft numbers from a center.

In summation, if Camby were guaranteed to play 80 games this season, he'd be worth a top-5 pick in fantasy leagues. However, that kind of durability just can't be counted on, so one must assume he's going to miss around 20 games. That still leaves him with plenty of value, but I'd rather own him in a H2H league and just hope he's healthy come playoff time than I would a rotisserie league, where his impressive averages won't help as much in a cumulative scoring system.

Posted by Dalton Del Don at 10/9/2007 11:22:00 AM
Comments (1)

The Rockets Will Be Better with Rick Adelman
Say what you like about Rick Adelman, but he did get the 1990 Trail Blazers to the finals, and he did preside over one of the most exciting teams (the Sacramento Kings of the late-90s/early 2000s) in recent memory. And for the Rockets, he's a huge upgrade over Jeff Van Gundy.

For starters, the players are happier in Adelman's more free-wheeling, dynamic system. Bonzi Wells, who never saw eye to eye with Van Gundy (and blamed some of that on his own issues), is happy because "players can be players" and don't have to constantly fear making a mistake.

But it's more than just that. Van Gundy's gritty east-coast style of lock down defense and disciplined offensive sets works well with teams like the 1990s Knicks, who had tough physical rebounders like Charles Oakley and Anthony Mason, and just average skill players on the perimeter. For the Rockets, with a superstar perimeter player who can pass, shoot or drive in Tracy McGrady, another legitimate backcourt scorer in Bonzi Wells, three-point shooters who can get up the floor in Luther Head, Mike James and Aaron Brooks and a superstar center with excellent shooting touch out to mid range, Adelman's system will play to their strengths.

Luis Scola, who's battling Chuck Hayes for power forward minutes, is another dynamic player who can pass and score, and small forward Shane Battier can knock down the three or make the right pass as well. Fantasy-wise, bump up all the key Rockets (McGrady, Yao, Battier, Wells), and whoever gets regular minutes from among Mike James, Luther Head, Rafer Alston or Steve Francis.

Posted by Chris Liss at 10/8/2007 3:52:00 PM

Comments (0)

Real Life vs. Fantasy Life Part II
For the seasoned fantasy player, mass-media hype and national appeal are often overlooked when assembling a fantasy basketball team. However, for those new to fantasy basketball, this is a common mistake. In this weeks, Real Life vs. Fantasy Life , we look at three players who garner a lot of media hype and are well known to the general public, but are not the great fantasy values one might assume.

Tracy McGrady

Real Life: McGrady is one of the most popular players in the NBA. He does national commercials and has a nickname that most casual NBA fans know. He also is a big time scorer who, from time to time, has highlight reel type dunks. Many people would rank him as one of the the top-25 players in the NBA.

Fantasy Life: McGrady is a good fantasy player. He scores, hits 3-pointers, has a high number of assists for his position and gets a reasonable amount of steals. However, for all the hype, he's not that much better of a fantasy player than a much lesser known guy like Mike Miller. Miller is a better field goal and free throw shooter, makes many more 3-pointers, is much better from the line and just as good a rebounder. The only areas where Miller is behind McGrady is points, assists and steals. Without all the hype, Mike Miller would be a solid selection and could be taken several rounds after McGrady.

Tony Parker

Real Life: Parker is one of the better scoring and shooting point guards in basketball. Couple that with being one of the more exciting players in the league and his very public marriage to Eva Longoria and you have all the mass media and hype you could ever want. In basketball terms, after Steve Nash and Jason Kidd, Parker is in that next tier of point guards and some would argue he is the third best point guard in the league.

Fantasy Life: While Parker is one of the top scoring and shooting point guards in the NBA, he has deficiencies that depending on the size of the league, make him a border-line starter. The two biggest areas are Parker's assist totals and his lack of 3-pointers made. Parker is on the low end of assists at just 5.5 per game which is near his career average. Don't expect this to change anytime soon. Parker also made just 15 3-pointers all of last season. Only Andre Miller made fewer for point guards averaging at least 30 minutes a night. Parker is also at best average in rebounds and steals. In fantasy terms, Parker is not much different than a much lesser known player like T.J. Ford. While Ford is not the shooter and overall scorer Parker is, he makes more 3-pointers, is a better free throw shooter, is the same in rebounds, is much more value in the assists category and is slightly better in steals.

Carmelo Anthony

Real Life: Anthony is one of the more popular players in the NBA and is well known for leading Syracuse to the national championship. He is one of the highest scorers in the league, has highlight reel dunks and will be forever linked to LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.

Fantasy Life: Anthony is a great scorer and solid shooter from the floor. However, as great as Anthony is, he is not that much better of a fantasy player than Ron Artest. While Anthony averaged more than 10 points a game more than Artest, Artest more than doubled his 3-pointers made, doubled his blocks, had more steals, is a better rebounder and is relatively close in both field goal and free throw percentage.

When looking at players to select in your fantasy draft, make sure that the hype is backed up by stats that help fantasy players. Just because a guy is very good at a couple of categories, is very well known or may be a great player in real life does not make him a great fantasy player. Shawn Marion, in real life, is the third best player on the Suns. In fantasy terms not only is he the best Sun, but a top-5 player in any fantasy draft because he is good in almost every fantasy category.

Posted by Kyle Fisher at 10/8/2007 11:28:00 AM
Comments (0)

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11/18/2007 - 11/24/2007
11/11/2007 - 11/17/2007
11/4/2007 - 11/10/2007
10/28/2007 - 11/3/2007
10/21/2007 - 10/27/2007
10/14/2007 - 10/20/2007
10/7/2007 - 10/13/2007
9/30/2007 - 10/6/2007
9/23/2007 - 9/29/2007
9/16/2007 - 9/22/2007
9/9/2007 - 9/15/2007
9/2/2007 - 9/8/2007
8/26/2007 - 9/1/2007
8/19/2007 - 8/25/2007
8/12/2007 - 8/18/2007
8/5/2007 - 8/11/2007
7/29/2007 - 8/4/2007
7/22/2007 - 7/28/2007
7/15/2007 - 7/21/2007
7/8/2007 - 7/14/2007
7/1/2007 - 7/7/2007
6/24/2007 - 6/30/2007
6/17/2007 - 6/23/2007
6/10/2007 - 6/16/2007
6/3/2007 - 6/9/2007
5/27/2007 - 6/2/2007
5/20/2007 - 5/26/2007
5/13/2007 - 5/19/2007
5/6/2007 - 5/12/2007
4/29/2007 - 5/5/2007
4/22/2007 - 4/28/2007
4/15/2007 - 4/21/2007
4/8/2007 - 4/14/2007
4/1/2007 - 4/7/2007
3/25/2007 - 3/31/2007
3/18/2007 - 3/24/2007
3/11/2007 - 3/17/2007
3/4/2007 - 3/10/2007
2/25/2007 - 3/3/2007
2/18/2007 - 2/24/2007
2/11/2007 - 2/17/2007
2/4/2007 - 2/10/2007
1/28/2007 - 2/3/2007
1/21/2007 - 1/27/2007
1/14/2007 - 1/20/2007
1/7/2007 - 1/13/2007
12/31/2006 - 1/6/2007
12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006
12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006