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Why Is Portland Good?
When it was announced in September that Greg Oden would miss the entire season after undergoing microfracture surgery on his knee, the first thing I thought of was the 1996-1997 Spurs. Sean Elliott and a past-his-prime Dominique Wilkins both missed a lot of action that year, but the most significant loss was David Robinson, who only played six games. The Spurs plummeted from 59 wins in 1995-1996 to 20 in 1996-1997.

Their reward for their bad luck, of course, was Tim Duncan. And thus a dynasty was born.

The Trail Blazers of 2006-2007 didn’t really resemble the 1995-1996 Spurs. The had two good rookies in Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge and a rising star in Zach Randolph. The rest of the roster was made up of has-beens, never-weres, and maybe-someday-will-bes.

In the offseason, Portland traded Randolph and got Oden with the top pick. Not exactly a fair trade looking only at 2007-2008 value, but at least Oden looked like he'd eventually eclipse Randolph's contributions to the team. When Oden went down, suddenly it looked like Portland had no shot at competing this year.

A funny thing happened on the way to the 2008 lottery: Portland has come together as the most surprising team in the league. The Trail Blazers – led by Roy and Aldridge – are 14-12 and are working on a nine-game winning streak (five of which Aldridge missed with an injury). They currently have a better record than Utah, Houston, Cleveland, Chicago and 13 other teams. Just to make sure we get this straight: this is a team that traded away its best player, got almost nothing in return (either in the trade or the draft), and is considerably better. Now, I know that some consider trading Randolph to be “addition by subtraction,” but this is ridiculous.

Roy looks like he’s all that, but as a fantasy player he is nothing special: good at many categories, great at none. Aldridge looks like a keeper as well, but he’s not a monster double-double machine or anything. The rest of the roster looks just like the rest of the roster of many other mediocre teams. Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster, and Steve Blake would be role players on most teams, wouldn’t they?

I live in Ohio, so I basically never get to see the Blazers play, so I really want to know…why are they so good? Is this a playoff team? Is Brandon Roy the next big star in this league? How good will this team be when Oden is healthy?


Posted by Kenn Ruby at 12/21/2007 9:12:00 PM

Comments (5)

Picking in-season sleeper candidates
Back in October I wrote a blog about methods to use to pick sleeper candidates before your fantasy draft. The main methods were to look for either 1) young players with upside, 2) former stars that could bounce back from down years, or 3) players that have moved to new teams and could have new opportunities. Looking back on it now, I actually didn’t do too bad with my list of players that I generated as examples.

Fast-forward two months, and now everyone wants to pick up the next hot free agent before their league-mates beat them to it. So, I figured I’d adapt my preseason sleeper methods and see if I can apply it in-season. Here are a few names that I came up with:

1)Louis Williams, G, PHI (Young talent). Williams was drafted out of high school in 2005, and is starting to grow into his potential. He has had a few stretches of positive play already this season, but he hasn’t yet been given the keys to the team completely. But the 76ers seem extremely high on him, and once they are out of playoff contention he should get his chance to really see what he can do. I expect good things from him in the second half of the season.

2)Chucky Atkins, G, DEN (Former productive player). Atkins was never a star so he doesn’t fit exactly into my second category, but he has been a roto starter at times in his career and apparently my fellow bloggers like him as well this season. The Nuggets have struggled at point guard this season, and they have needed more outside shooting. Atkins could fill both of those needs when he gets healthy, and should take advantage of the open treys created by the opposing defense paying so much attention to Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony.

3)Nazr Mohammed, C, CHA (Follow the trade). I’m not fully convinced that Mohammed will be a roto starter in Charlotte, but he is a veteran player that has been productive in the past and he performed well in his first start with the Bobcats Wednesday night. Sometimes, with players that you thought were done as a fantasy producer, all it takes is a new situation to give their career a jump-start. We’ll see if that’s the case with Mohammed.



Posted by Professor at 12/20/2007 10:02:00 AM
Comments (3)

The Return of Chucky
One of my favorite sleeper picks for this season was Denver's Chucky Atkins. Here's I wrote about him in the NBA.com Draft Kit:

Chucky Atkins - DEN [PG]: Denver’s hyper-caffeinated offense actually made Steve Blake look good last season. This year, in Blake’s place, George Karl will have a player with some actual offensive skill, especially from downtown. We’re betting Atkins will put up pretty nice numbers this season.
I even took my own advice and grabbed Atkins in the NBA.com Expert League on Ultimate Fantasy Commissioner -- which probably cemented the jinx. Soon after that draft, Atkins suffered a nasty groin injury that's kept him on the shelf for the entire season to date.

Sounds like we'll finally get a chance to see if I was right: and getting closer to a return.

This is potentially significant fantasy news, for a couple of reasons:
  • No one really thinks Allen Iverson is going to continue to play 40 minutes a night.
  • No one really thinks that JR Smith is going to stay out of George Karl's doghouse all season.
  • And none of Denver's other guards have really distinguished themselves or been able to stay healthy.
That could give Atkins an opportunity to win a productive role in a very productive offense.

Posted by
Charlie Zegers at 12/19/2007 6:20:00 PM
Comments (1)

Keon Clark - Slamming While Slammed
This is one of the craziest sports stories I've read in a while.

I mean Eddie Van Halen claimed he was basically drunk for 10 straight years, but playing in a band isn't exactly the same thing as running up and down the floor.



Posted by Chris Liss at 12/17/2007 5:43:00 PM

Comments (2)

When do you cut an injured player loose?
I am the commissioner of a league in which I allow owners to substitute players from the bench if they have a starter that misses at least half of their games in a given week. This week I got bombarded with sub requests, with most of the teams in the league asking me to do an injury substitution. Getting all of those requests really brought home something that I knew but hadn’t really paid attention to: there are a lot of big names missing time these days. Some of them are huge, long-term injuries (i.e. Elton Brand, Gilbert Arenas, Mike Bibby) while some are/have-been more of a day-to-day/week-to-week thing (i.e. LeBron James, Tim Duncan). But either way, having an impact player out hurt (obviously) puts a big damper on fantasy teams. And it’s worse now than it was a few years ago, since the NBA got rid of the injured list and now most fantasy owners can’t even pick up an injury replacement without dropping their injured star.

That raises a question: when should you drop a player? For instance, I am not in any league where Elton Brand, Mike Bibby, or Gilbert Arenas are available despite the fact that they are expected to be out until at least February (and could potentially miss the season). On the other hand, I picked up Randy Foye (out at least another month, knee) from the free agent wire in a league today and myself dropped Antonio Daniels (out 2 – 4 weeks, knee) in a different league despite the fact that they in theory should be back sooner. So who should get dropped, and why?

For me, it all comes down to risk/reward and whether your team can afford to let them sit on the bench. Daniels was an adequate starter as an injury replacement, but even when healthy he isn’t going to win many leagues for you. And that particular team of mine is struggling, so I couldn’t afford to wait. That is why I let him go, despite the fact that he could be back in just a couple weeks. Foye, on the other hand, is more of an unknown, and I believe he’s more worth taking a chance on as his upside is to be an impact player. Makes the risk worthwhile.

If you’ve got one of the big boys like Brand or Arenas you likely can’t cut them. Let me rephrase, because I’ve actually seen it done…you probably SHOULDN’T cut them. They are just too good, and if/when they come back they most certainly can win a league for you. Of course, if your team is struggling and you just need some production…still don’t cut them. Instead, find someone in your league to trade you 75 cents on the dollar for them. 75% of Gilbert Arenas is still likely better than anyone that you can get on the FA wire, and the person that you’re dealing with could be getting a first-round pick in just a couple of months in exchange for someone they may- or may-not have been starting.

In closing: injuries can really put a hurt on a team. But the difference between a good playoff fantasy team and a lottery one is an owner that can roll with the punches, do the most that they can with their bad luck and still come out on their feet. And honestly…overcoming these stumbling blocks is what makes the game fun!



Posted by Professor at 12/17/2007 2:46:00 PM
Comments (0)

The Butler Did It!
When Gilbert Arenas went down earlier this season I figured that the Wizards would be hovering near the bottom of the Southeast Division. Now I understand that the divisions strength is certainly not to the level of the Southwest Division, but Arenas is unquestionably one of the biggest stars in the league. But currently the Wizards are a very respectable 13 and 10 and have the fourth highest winning percentage in the Eastern Conference. What has been the key you ask? The Butler did it!

Caron Butler is having his best season in the NBA averaging career highs in most major fantasy categories. Butler is currently ranked ninth in the NBA.com fantasy player rating, ahead of such stars such as Dwight Howard, Josh Smith, Kevin Garnett and Manu Ginobili. Butler has few weaknesses from a fantasy perspective. Other than shot blocking, Butler is at least average in all other categories. The biggest improvement in Butler's game has been his 3-point shooting. This season he is making over a 3-pointer per game. Last season he made just 18 in 63 games. One has to wonder how Butler's game will be affected once Arenas returns. More than likely his scoring, 3-pointers and perhaps shooting will dip. While is may be too early to trade Butler now, as Arenas is months away from returning, once he returns, trading Butler may be smart. But for now, the biggest key to the Wizards' success has been Butler. In this case, Wizards fans and Butler owners are glad the Butler did it!



Posted by Kyle Fisher at 12/17/2007 12:04:00 PM
Comments (0)

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12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006
12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006