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Can Diaw Party Like it's 2005?
In the 2005-06 season, Amare Stoudemire missed most of the year with injury and Boris Diaw came from nowhere to become a breakout fantasy star. He averaged 13.3 points, 6.9 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.7 combined blocks/steals and shot 52.6% from the field while gaining multi-position eligibility (especially the coveted center). In the 06-07 season, Stoudemire returned and Diaws value went through the floor. He stopped playing center (thus eventually losing his center eligibility), his numbers fell off across the board, and he became the proverbial you dont want to cut him, but you cant afford to play him guy.

This season had been looking like a worse version of the last one for Diaw, with averages of 8.1 points, 4.5 boards, 4.0 assists, .5 blocks, and 45.3% FG shooting all representing lows since he became a Sun three seasons ago. Then the Suns made the big trade of Shawn Marion for Shaquille ONeal last week, and suddenly things began to look up for Diaw. When you look at his situation, Diaw makes a very interesting second-half sleeper candidate. Consider these three facts:

Because he started at center when Stoudemire missed some games in the fall with knee soreness, Diaw has regained center eligibility in most leagues.
In 18 games as a starter this season, Diaw has averaged 11.9 points, 5.8 boards, 5.1 assists, 1.84 blocks/steals, 50.5% shooting from the field and 78.8% shooting from the line.
Marion had played more than 70% of the minutes available in Phoenix, while ONeal had played less than 40% of the minutes available in Miami.

What this tells us is that Diaw still has the same game that he had in 05-06 when he gets the minutes, that Diaw now has the multi-position/center eligibility back that made him more valuable in 05-06, and that there should be a lot more playing time available for him for the rest of the season with ONeal on the team as opposed to Marion.

With this in mind, Diaws 19-point (9-for-12 FG)/eight rebound/five assist/three block/one steal performance on Thursday night against the Mavericks looks a lot more enticing than just another of the fluke performances that he has dropped this season. I am not saying that you should consider Diaw golden and expect games like this every night, especially once Shaq gets back on the court. But what I am saying is that he is more valuable now than he was two weeks ago, and if you have the opportunity to get him for less (in one shallow league Im in I just picked him up off the FA wire) then you should seriously consider it.



Posted by Professor at 2/15/2008 9:19:00 AM
Comments (0)

Texas Two-Step
I write two columns a week for NBA.com and RotoWire. One gets written Sunday/Monday for submission first thing on Tuesday morning. The other is written Tuesday for publication first thing on Wednesday.

That being the case, the fact that major trades have hit the wires on Wednesday afternoon -- for the last two weeks running -- is a major inconvenience. C'mon, guys. You give me all this great material just hours after my deadline? What gives? A little consideration, please.

Now that I've gotten that out of my system... let's talk J-Kidd and the Mavericks.

From a fantasy perspective, this probably doesn't impact Kidd's value much, if at all. He goes from a team with two high-impact running buddies on offense to a team with two high-impact running buddies on offense. What's he going to do, start posting more triple-doubles? If anything, Kidd's arrival will have an impact on people like Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry, who may see increased scoring and shooting percentages resulting from Kidd's dishes.

The inclusion of Antoine Wright in a "separate" deal is intriguing. Blocked by Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson, Wright has shown flashes of potential as a Net but never enough to really merit much fantasy attention. But on a Dallas team that could have its bench more or less gutted by this trade, Wright could find himself in a key role. He's worth watching.

On the Jersey side, it seems that Marcus Williams' job description changes from "Jason Kidd's caddy" to "Devin Harris' caddy;" Harris is signed long-term and is pretty clearly Kidd's replacement. But Williams still gets a value boost -- sharing with Harris should be a more even arrangement than sharing with Kidd proved to be.

The rest of the Nets get across-the-board downgrades. J-Kidd made their whole offense go. It will take time before they adjust to a new quarterback.

Posted by Charlie Zegers at 2/13/2008 2:55:00 PM
Comments (4)

Fantasy Success Leads to Team Success
Perhaps no team other than the Celtics have been a bigger surprise than the Hornets. The Hornets, who won 39 games last season, are on pace to win 57 games this year. Three players, who have been fantasy stars, are without question the main reason for the success of the Hornets.

The most obvious star is potential fantasy MVP Chris Paul. Paul is averaging 20.4 points, 10.9 assists and 2.6 steals while shooting a career-high 47.5 percent from the floor and 87.6 percent from the line. the increase in assists have benefited both David West and Tyson Chandler.

West, who is the Antawn Jamison of the Western Conference, is averaging a career-high 19.6 points and 9.2 rebounds while hitting almost 85 percent from the line. Throw in the combined 2.2 steals/blocks and West makes any fantasy owner happy.

Lastly and perhaps the biggest surprise is Chandler. A former top-5 pick, who was considered a huge bust in Chicago, Chandler is doing more than just salvaging an NBA career. Last season Chandler averaged a solid 9.5 points and 12.4 rebounds on an outstanding 62.4 percent from the floor. To prove that last season was no fluke, Chandler is averaging a career-high 12.2 points with 12.3 rebounds on 60.7 percent from the floor. Chandler has gone from fantasy dud to stud in less than two years.

I don't know whether this will translate into playoff success, but the fact that the Hornets should certainly make the playoffs may be success enough.



Posted by Kyle Fisher at 2/13/2008 5:02:00 AM
Comments (2)

Can Smith or Wallace overtake Marion?
In one of my articles last October I made some pre-season predictions. One of those predictions was that either Josh Smith or Gerald Wallace would finish higher than Shawn Marion in roto player raters this season. It was a bold prediction, because Marion almost always finishes at the top of the raters due to his durability and his diverse game that contributes positively to almost every category without any corresponding weaknesses. Last season, Marion finished #3 overall in the NBA.com FSPI rating (5.97) while Smith was 16th (5.14) and Wallace was #25 (4.90). This season it has been a bit closer but Marion is still ahead with an FSPI rating of #7 overall (5.33), Smith #10 (5.05) and Wallace #21 (4.85).

A lot has changed recently, though. Marion has been traded out of Phoenix and now resides in Miami, Wallace was playing out of his mind before he injured his foot (#1 overall in FSPI rating over the past 10 games), and Smith went through a four game stretch last week in which he almost had three different triple doubles with some combination of points, blocks, rebounds and assists. With all of that in mind, what is the likelihood that my pre-season prediction holds up and either Smith or Wallace passes Marion in the second half of the season?

Well, I�d say that the odds are at least decent. Marion in Miami will no longer have Nash to set him up for wide open looks, which means that his field goal percentage and turnovers could suffer. His counting numbers could increase, especially scoring and rebounding, but part of his value is tied into his balanced contributions/no negatives approach so on the whole his rating could conceivably decline a bit.

On the other hand, Wallace seems to have settled into his role and should continue to post monster numbers for as long as his health holds up. That is the main issue, though�he has always had health troubles, so I can�t just assume that he�ll be healthy from here on out. If he is, though, he has the ability to compete with/outperform Marion in pretty much every category outside of free throw percentage.

Smith could also surpass Marion, but in a different way. He probably won�t catch Marion in shooting percentages (especially FT%), and his scoring may not be as good either. But Smith�s ridiculous ability to block shots, when combined with strengths in most of the counting categories, at least make it conceivable that he could jump the three spots in the rankings to surpass Marion.

Despite the fact that my prediction rests upon either Wallace or Smith overtaking Marion, if a draft were held today I would still pick Marion above either of them. He�s still the safest pick, among the three. But if I had Marion in a league where someone was willing to trade me either Wallace or Smith plus an upgrade in exchange, I would probably do it because both of them have proven to be almost as valuable as he is.



Posted by Professor at 2/11/2008 11:54:00 AM
Comments (0)

Popovich = Disgruntled Fantasy Owner?
Opining on the Pau Gasol trade, Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich said to SI.com:

"What they did in Memphis is beyond comprehension. There should be a trade committee that can scratch all trades that make no sense. I just wish I had been on a trade committee that oversees NBA trades. I'd like to elect myself to that committee. I would have voted no to the L.A. trade."

When I read what Popovich said, what immediately popped into my mind was the many complaints over the years from fantasy owners attempting to exercise some sort of "veto power" to override collusive trades. Many of you are probably familiar with Yahoo's option which allows fantasy owners to vote to veto trades, or at least send a message to the Commissioner asking them to do so. Maybe I'm naive (having never played in an anonymous "big-money" league), but the only time I ever was in a league where we uncovered definitive collusive trades occurring was a free league with friends where one guy gave the other $5 to trade him his best players. Have any of you confirmed that there was serious collusion going on in your league? I generally subscribe to the frame of mind so eloquently written into the RotoWire Staff Keeper Baseball League constitution by our own Jeff Erickson:

"Generally speaking, I'm of the mindset that owners should be able to make their own mistakes in trades. I want to believe that no one will collude, and I think the dangers of dumping are vastly overstated. I'm vehemently opposed to an in-season salary cap, and most other dump-trade measures."

Obviously, it's easier to justify an imbalanced trade in a keeper league than a one-year league. In my experience, however, in the large majority of instances people object to trades, it can be attributed to the fact that one of their competitors at the top of the standings has made themselves substantially better. Overall, I would generally encourage such people to stop whining and make their own deals to improve their team.

Other than actual collusion (which is overly asserted), the only gripe I believe has any shred of legitimacy is when a trade results from a stronger member of the league preying on a relative fantasy novice. (Still, I don't think this is a sufficient excuse to exclude a trade, unless someone trades for an injured or demoted player.) But bringing us back to the Grizzlies deal, where we have an NBA team and multi-million dollar business engaging in asset management, it's incredulous to me to think that management didn't take the best deal available to them. Sure, they might have passed up on a better deal with the Bulls last year, and teams are entitled to vary in their respective valuations, but I'm hard-pressed to think that there are completely inept people running the Memphis organization. There are already plenty of reasons not to like Popovich -- his quietness, air of superiority, and overall smugness a la Bill Belichick; the boring basketball; his lucking into the David Robinson/Tim Duncan dynasty; etc. But this heaps another one onto the pile.

But of course, along similar lines, mine isn't the only legitimate evaluation of the situation. Was Popovich justified in popping off? Or was he just acting like a disgruntled fantasy owner, complaining about a deal that makes his life harder while he already has to deal with an injury to his starting point guard?

Posted by Bret Cohen at 2/10/2008 1:34:00 PM

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4/1/2007 - 4/7/2007
3/25/2007 - 3/31/2007
3/18/2007 - 3/24/2007
3/11/2007 - 3/17/2007
3/4/2007 - 3/10/2007
2/25/2007 - 3/3/2007
2/18/2007 - 2/24/2007
2/11/2007 - 2/17/2007
2/4/2007 - 2/10/2007
1/28/2007 - 2/3/2007
1/21/2007 - 1/27/2007
1/14/2007 - 1/20/2007
1/7/2007 - 1/13/2007
12/31/2006 - 1/6/2007
12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006
12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006