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Moves in the Association, Capers and Look-Alikes
While everyone and their great grandma begins prepping for the fantasy football season, fantasy’s most underrated sport can get lost in the midst. Here’s a look at some of the NBA's summer transactions (not including the already highly-covered Elton Brand and Baron Davis signings), mixed among a few of my own personal grumblings.

> The Nuggets were the second-worst defensive team last season. Marcus Camby was the runner-up for defensive player of the year and won the award two seasons ago. The Nuggets gave up Camby for nothing. You do the math. For real though, as my boy Shannon recently wrote about in his analysis of the Camby move, Nene’s value clearly increases, and it could force the Nuggets to utilize a smaller lineup that would have plenty of minutes to offer for Linas Kleiza and J.R. Smith. People will no doubt be excited about the potential of the electric Smith, and why not? He had a great second-half last year, should get even more opportunities this season as long as he doesn’t do anything stupid and get into Karl’s doghouse. It's always a nice bonus to own players who are fun to watch, and Smith is still the only player in the league that would be a top-10 candidate to win both the three-point and slam-dunk contest, for whatever it’s worth.

> The Raptors could be quite the force in the East with their newly loaded frontcourt. If Jermaine O'Neal can stay healthy, he could post monster numbers alongside Chris Bosh, as well as Andrea Bargnani. The fact that he’s missed at least 30 games in three of the past four seasons obviously raises a big red flag, but there is no guarantee that he won’t be able to stay healthy. He averaged between 19.0-24.3 points, 8.8-10.5 rebounds and 2.0-2.6 blocks in the six seasons prior to last year. He could be a huge sleeper next year if people avoid him for too long on draft day.

> I’m a big fruit guy. I love fruit. It’s healthy for you, and can often be quite sweet and tasty as well. With that said, by far the worst and most useless fruit is the caper. Yup, capers are classified as fruit, I was shocked as well. For those of you who don’t know what I’m talking about, they’re the little green, dingleberry-looking, pickled thingies that are common in Mediterranean cuisine.

> With O’Neal handled, why not talk about another super-injury-prone player from the same deal. One of my favorite pieces of apparel is my “vintage” T.J. Ford Milwaukee Bucks jersey, so I acknowledge that I may be a bit biased in my analysis of the guy. Needless to say, I love Ford and think that he’s one of the league’s top-10 point guards when healthy and still gives Monta Ellis and Leandro Barbosa a run for the designation of quickest player in the entire Association. Jamaal Tinsley is on his way out of Indiana and while Jarrett Jack and Travis Diener are respectable, Ford should still get 30-plus minutes a game if healthy. With the Pacers having averaged 104 points last season and carrying scorers like Danny Granger, Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy on their roster to dish to, I expect career high totals in both points and assists for Ford. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him average 16 points and eight assists a game, and I think he has the ceiling to reach 20 and 11.

> I’ve talked to a couple buddies who are eager about the potential Mickael Pietrus has with his move to Orlando, but I can’t say I share the excitement. He will log more minutes than he was getting with the Warriors but post just average defensive statistics for someone as athletic as himself, is a poor free throw shooter and hasn’t even reached one assist per game through his first three seasons. I also believe his game is better suited to Golden State's run-and-gun style than Orlando’s half-court offense that runs through Dwight Howard.

> EA Sports’ first NCAA Football ’09 commercial during the home run derby was unquestionably the best ad I’ve ever seen for a sports video game. It was flawless. If you happened to be paying attention to the commercials between Josh Hamilton’s slugfest and Justin Morneau’s unheralded victory, you should know what I’m talking about. If you don’t, then here it is. Of the six people I was watching the derby with, two bought the game the next day as a direct response to the ad.

> Speaking of the MLB All-Star break, here’s my suggestion to modify the game to avoid the possible disaster of having a completely depleted bullpen. Add three roster spots for pitchers and have each manager select the top-3 middle relievers or setup men available, as these guys hardly ever get a chance to make the All-Star roster. You only need to pitch them if completely necessary. Another thing I’d like to see implemented, although it’d never happen, would be to change the rules, just for the All-Star game, and allow position players to re-enter the game if it goes into extra innings. The game is very meaningful, let the stars determine the outcome.

> I was elated at the Warriors’ signing of Marcus Williams. I was incredibly high on the guy coming out of college and while he hasn’t done much in the NBA yet, I still love his potential. With Baron Davis, Matt Barnes, Mickael Pietrus and possibly Kelenna Azubuike all departed from G-State’s backcourt, Williams should become the fourth option behind only Monta Ellis, Stephen Jackson and Corey Maggette for the one, two and three spots on the court. As long as those guys don’t play 48 minutes a game, Williams should see a good amount of playing time and is a talented scorer and passer. The Warriors also averaged over 15 points per game more than the Nets last season.

> Richard Jefferson moves from New Jersey to Milwaukee, and while he sports a new jersey, his fantasy value remains the same. Both teams scored about the same number of points (Nets 95.8, Bucks 97.0) and have similar backcourts that feature high-scoring, shoot-first twos (Vince Carter, Michael Redd) and young, up-and-coming playmakers at the point (Devin Harris, Mo Williams). It can often be risky, in any fantasy sport, when a productive player switches destinations, but I see Jefferson's move as a moot point.

> I have the uncanny ability to search out look-alikes that exist in the wide world of sports and will attempt to provide one in each of my future posts. This week's:
Andrew Bogut (1, 2)
&
Adam Sandler's character Little Nicky (1, 2)

Posted by Danny Goldin at 7/23/2008 11:59:00 AM

Comments (6)

NBA Summer League: Booms and Busts
“Stats don’t lie” should be the official motto for all fantasy players. You win or lose championships on the stats that your players put up in the box score. When do stats lie? The answer is simple: during the NBA summer league.

Every year, a collection of rookies, developmental players and aging journeymen meet up in Las Vegas to try to impress the NBA brass. Many of these players are playing for a contract or more playing time. The competition (or lack of) produces players who put up Jordan-esque numbers.

The talk of Sin City last year was Marco Belinelli. The three-point shooting Italian lit up the summer league with a 22.8 scoring average. After hitting 10 three-pointers in his first two games, prospective fantasy owners and Don Nelson were left salivating at the thought of Belinelli in their lineups. Belinelli became a sleeper in most drafts. In dire need of a three-point assassin, I succumbed to my summer league induced delirium and selected him with my last pick in multiple leagues.

Once the regular season tipped off, the stats Belinelli put up during summer league were just another mirage in the Nevada desert. He averaged 2.9 points with 0.4 rebounds and 0.5 assists in 33 games during the regular season. It didn’t take long for owners to give up on Belinelli.

Not all summer league standouts end up as busts in the regular season. Players such as Brandon Roy, Lamarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay backed up solid summer league performances with breakout seasons.

Kevin Martin was one player who translated a great summer league performance into the regular season. Martin averaged 10.8 points per game in 2005-06. He became a decent option off the bench for the Kings, but offered little fantasy value at that point.

The following summer, Martin averaged 22.8 points and 6.5 rebounds per contest. The improvement carried over to the regular season and resulted in Martin finishing second to Monta Ellis for the 2006-07 NBA Most Improved Player Award. After being passed up in most drafts, Martin became a fantasy gold mine by nearly doubling the previous season’s scoring average.

How do you tell which players are for real? The easiest way is looking at rosters and evaluating the depth charts. In the NBA, production equals minutes – players that are on the court, get the stats. The following list is made up of players who put up eye-popping numbers in Las Vegas this year. Let’s try to weed out the real McCoy (Martin) from the flash in a pan (Belinelli).

McCoys

Jerryd Bayless, PG/SG, POR

Bayless was the talk of the town this past week in Las Vegas. The rookie Trailblazer led the summer league in scoring with 29.8 ppg. His hot shooting performance led to Bayless being named the T-Mobile NBA Summer League Top Rookie.

The transition from summer league to regular season should be easier for Bayless than most other rookies. Bayless has the benefit of playing along a burgeoning superstar – Brandon Roy – and won’t be asked to put the team on his shoulders. Roy should make a nice backcourt pairing with Bayless, helping with the ball-handling duties.

Other rookies have put up staggering summer league numbers only to disappoint when it counts (Ever heard of Randy Foye?), but few have been in a position to succeed such as Bayless. He will start the season battling Steve Blake for playing time, but should break into the starting lineup early in the year. With a nucleus of Bayless, Roy, Aldridge and Greg Oden, the Blazers have one of the brightest futures in the NBA.

Kevin Love, PF/C, MIN,

Love was a great player at UCLA, but many have questioned how well his game will transition to the NBA. The knocks against Love have been his weight problem and the fact that he is a big man who plays below the rim. The conditioning questions were answered when Love showed up at the draft 20 lbs lighter. The below the rim issue won’t be solved until NBA officials allow players to place ladders by the buckets or Love signs an endorsement deal with Strength Shoes.

Despite his battle with gravity, Love dominated the glass in summer league with a league-leading 13.5 average. He also faired well filling up the basket at a clip of 18 ppg. The Timberwolves aren’t deep in the front-court and should provide Love with plenty of minutes right off the bat. It’s highly unlikely that Love will ever be a 20/10 type, but he should be able to put up David Lee-like numbers immediately.

Ramon Sessions, PG, MIL,

Sessions should be a familiar name for fantasy owners – he provided value towards the end of last season by averaging 8.1 points and 7.5 assists. The Bucks are in a transition period with a new president and head coach. Head coach Scott Skiles likes a point guard who can get others involved and that is exactly Sessions forte.

After last year’s surprise production, Session continued his dime dropping ways in summer league. Sessions led the summer league with 7.3 per game. His 15.3 ppg showed that his isn’t a one-trick pony. The Bucks will start the season with Mo Williams at point guard, but don’t be surprised if Sessions unseats him at some point. Williams could become a Ben Gordon-type scoring option off the bench for the Bucks when Sessions take the helm.

Flashes

Jason Smith, PF, PHI and Marreese Speights, PF/C, PHI

Smith averaged 15.6 points and 8 rebounds during summer league. He showed improvement in his range by knocking down open jump shots. Speights bettered his teammate with averages of 18.2 points and 10.2 rebounds. What’s not to like about the two young big men? A lack of playing time.

With Elton Brand, Samuel Dalembert, Reggie Evans and Thaddeus Young ahead of the youngsters on the depth chart, it will take a trade or injury for Smith and Speights to see significant run. Remember their names for future seasons but don’t expect much this year.

Wilson Chandler, F, NY

The Knicks are another team that is in flux. Chandler gave the Knicks a glimpse of their future with his line of 16.2 points and 7.8 rebounds in five summer league games. The problem is that his game might not mesh well with the direction the team is headed in.

New head coach Mike D’Antoni will try to instill his fast paced offense that relies on three-point shooting. Chandler hit two shots from downtown during summer league action, but showed that he is better at attacking the rim. Quentin Richardson played small forward for D’Antoni in Phoenix and reportedly has spent the offseason on his conditioning. Expect Richardson to see the majority of minutes at small forward as the Knicks try to take advantage of his skills from the arc.

Donte Green, F, HOU

Let’s take a look at the some of the players on the Rockets’ summer league roster: Michael Harris, Bradley Kanis, Joseph Jones, and Chris Daniels. The next logical question would begin with a “Who?". The Rockets needed someone to pick up the scoring slack and Green decided to answer the bell by putting up 22.6 ppg.

Green showed an ability to hit the long range shot – he nailed 14 three-pointers in five games – but also showed that he needs a ton of shots to score. He threw up an alarming 87 shots in the five summer league contests. Do you think he’ll get that many running with Tracy McGrady and Rafer Alston? If Green becomes a more efficient shooter, he might develop into a fantasy asset along the way. Don’t expect it to happen during his rookie season.

Posted by Shannon McKeown at 7/21/2008 11:09:00 PM

Comments (1)

What Happens in Vegas...
...gets talked about in blogs! OK, so that's not exactly how the Vegas marketing statement goes, but it works better in this space. I made my yearly sojourn to Vegas this week to check out some basketball Summer League games, and help me get a jump start on evaluating what rookies might be fantasy relevant this season. This year I plan to do individual capsule blogs on the various rookies, so I'll put my on-court impressions there in the upcoming weeks. In the meantime, let me give you a taste of why in Vegas it can be more fun to pay attention to what is going on off the court.

The Summer Leagues are an interesting mix of young studs with guaranteed contracts, young players trying to hustle themselves onto an NBA roster, and vets that never made it and are just trying to get work. Likewise, the stands are full of an interesting mix as well. There are the coaches and GMs evaluating talent, there are journalists and bloggers looking for angles, there are agents and entourages looking to attach themselves to new talent, and there are groupies that are on a different kind of hunt. And just by being in the arena, an average fan can be right in the middle of the action since the players themselves walk around the arena and sit in the stands.

I was scouting the games with Dalton Del Don, and when we first got to the gym we spotted a group of extremely attractive young ladies walk in. We immediately pegged them as either player girlfriends, or “players” that wanted to be girlfriends. Sure enough, before the afternoon was over I saw one of the group trying to talk to Renaldo Balkman at the concession stand.

As I walked down a hallway I saw J.R. Smith talking with a group of older guys, laughing with them about how silly it was that Smith “of all people” played some point guard for the Nuggets last season when it is well known how much he likes to shoot and hates to pass.

But the best behind-the-scenes action happened while I was taking notes during the Grizzlies/Spurs game. I was sitting in the last seat of an aisle, and a few rows up from me across the aisle were a few of the Suns players and a group of females. At one point one of the players came out to the aisle and was talking to someone a few steps up from me. One of the young ladies he was sitting with approached him and started fussing him out for paying too much attention to the other girls. They walked down a couple of steps to get further away from their group…which put them directly on the step next to my right shoulder. They were so close that even with their voices lowered I couldn’t help but hear every word so clearly that I almost felt like I should join in. Here is a paraphrased transcript of their conversation, with cuss words removed…

Girl: “I can’t believe you were talking so much to that other … (girl) all up in my face.”

Player: (monotone) “You’re overreacting.”

Girl: (voice raising)“Overreacting, nothing. You can’t be disrespecting me like that.”

Player: (monotone) “You’re overreacting.”

Girl: (voice an angry hiss) “I’m getting sick of you! This is going to be all over California now…they’re gonna be saying I can’t even handle my man.”

Player: (monotone) “You’re overreacting.” (As he walks away from her and leaves her in place fuming).

Ah, Las Vegas. Ah, Summer League. Only here would the action off the court be so much more interesting than the action on it.



Posted by Professor at 7/20/2008 12:59:00 PM
Comments (5)

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1/4/2009 - 1/10/2009
12/28/2008 - 1/3/2009
12/21/2008 - 12/27/2008
12/14/2008 - 12/20/2008
12/7/2008 - 12/13/2008
11/30/2008 - 12/6/2008
11/23/2008 - 11/29/2008
11/16/2008 - 11/22/2008
11/9/2008 - 11/15/2008
11/2/2008 - 11/8/2008
10/26/2008 - 11/1/2008
10/19/2008 - 10/25/2008
10/12/2008 - 10/18/2008
10/5/2008 - 10/11/2008
9/28/2008 - 10/4/2008
9/21/2008 - 9/27/2008
9/14/2008 - 9/20/2008
9/7/2008 - 9/13/2008
8/31/2008 - 9/6/2008
8/24/2008 - 8/30/2008
8/17/2008 - 8/23/2008
8/10/2008 - 8/16/2008
8/3/2008 - 8/9/2008
7/27/2008 - 8/2/2008
7/20/2008 - 7/26/2008
7/13/2008 - 7/19/2008
7/6/2008 - 7/12/2008
6/29/2008 - 7/5/2008
6/22/2008 - 6/28/2008
6/15/2008 - 6/21/2008
6/8/2008 - 6/14/2008
6/1/2008 - 6/7/2008
5/25/2008 - 5/31/2008
5/18/2008 - 5/24/2008
5/11/2008 - 5/17/2008
5/4/2008 - 5/10/2008
4/27/2008 - 5/3/2008
4/20/2008 - 4/26/2008
4/13/2008 - 4/19/2008
4/6/2008 - 4/12/2008
3/30/2008 - 4/5/2008
3/23/2008 - 3/29/2008
3/16/2008 - 3/22/2008
3/9/2008 - 3/15/2008
3/2/2008 - 3/8/2008
2/24/2008 - 3/1/2008
2/17/2008 - 2/23/2008
2/10/2008 - 2/16/2008
2/3/2008 - 2/9/2008
1/27/2008 - 2/2/2008
1/20/2008 - 1/26/2008
1/13/2008 - 1/19/2008
1/6/2008 - 1/12/2008
12/30/2007 - 1/5/2008
12/23/2007 - 12/29/2007
12/16/2007 - 12/22/2007
12/9/2007 - 12/15/2007
12/2/2007 - 12/8/2007
11/25/2007 - 12/1/2007
11/18/2007 - 11/24/2007
11/11/2007 - 11/17/2007
11/4/2007 - 11/10/2007
10/28/2007 - 11/3/2007
10/21/2007 - 10/27/2007
10/14/2007 - 10/20/2007
10/7/2007 - 10/13/2007
9/30/2007 - 10/6/2007
9/23/2007 - 9/29/2007
9/16/2007 - 9/22/2007
9/9/2007 - 9/15/2007
9/2/2007 - 9/8/2007
8/26/2007 - 9/1/2007
8/19/2007 - 8/25/2007
8/12/2007 - 8/18/2007
8/5/2007 - 8/11/2007
7/29/2007 - 8/4/2007
7/22/2007 - 7/28/2007
7/15/2007 - 7/21/2007
7/8/2007 - 7/14/2007
7/1/2007 - 7/7/2007
6/24/2007 - 6/30/2007
6/17/2007 - 6/23/2007
6/10/2007 - 6/16/2007
6/3/2007 - 6/9/2007
5/27/2007 - 6/2/2007
5/20/2007 - 5/26/2007
5/13/2007 - 5/19/2007
5/6/2007 - 5/12/2007
4/29/2007 - 5/5/2007
4/22/2007 - 4/28/2007
4/15/2007 - 4/21/2007
4/8/2007 - 4/14/2007
4/1/2007 - 4/7/2007
3/25/2007 - 3/31/2007
3/18/2007 - 3/24/2007
3/11/2007 - 3/17/2007
3/4/2007 - 3/10/2007
2/25/2007 - 3/3/2007
2/18/2007 - 2/24/2007
2/11/2007 - 2/17/2007
2/4/2007 - 2/10/2007
1/28/2007 - 2/3/2007
1/21/2007 - 1/27/2007
1/14/2007 - 1/20/2007
1/7/2007 - 1/13/2007
12/31/2006 - 1/6/2007
12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006
12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006