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Who's Catching the Ball in Miami?
The deadline deal sending Chris Chambers out to the west coast might end up saving Chambers' personal fantasy value, but it also leaves a hole at the top of the Dolphins receiving depth chart. The Miami offense isn't exactly high-powered, but *somebody* has to catch Cleo Lemon's passes, right? Let's take a look at the candidates:

Marty Booker - He's 31, but he does have a distant pedigree as a #1 receiver back in his Bears days, totalling 197 catches for 2260 yards and 14 TDs in '01-'02. Last year's numbers (55 catches, 747 yards, six TDs) were accumulated with Chambers basically being a non-factor anyway, so he should at least be able to duplicate that pace over the next 10 games. That puts him in line for about 3-4 catches and 45 yards a week, with a few scores. Hardly eye-popping numbers, but useful in a deeper league.

Ted Ginn Jr. - He instantly becomes a trendy upside play, but there isn't a whole lot of evidence just yet that he's ready for a prime time role. With Lemon under center he's caught just one pass a week, although both receptions were big gainers. If he does get more looks he could be explosive, but he could just as easily be a feast-or-famine WR, trading solid games with goose eggs. Be wary about spending too much to nab Ginn.

Derek Hagan - He's yet to impress in his second NFL season, but he did catch three passes for 30 yards last week against Cleveland, matching his reception total for the first five games. If he can translate his physical tools into on-field production he'll be a nice sleeper, and Lemon at least seems willing to look his way occasionally. He might be worth stashing on your bench in a deep league, just in case.

David Martin - Antonio Gates he isn't, but Dolphins coach Cam Cameron knows a thing or two about involving his tight end in the offense. Martin's two TD game last week certainly jumps off the page, but as yet he hasn't caught more than three passes in any game this year. Still, Lemon will have some ups and downs as the starter at QB and will need an outlet receiver when things break down. Unfortunately, Martin may have to compete with Ronnie Brown to be that outlet guy.

If I had to rank those four right now, in terms of who I'd want on my team, I'd list them Booker, Martin, Ginn, Hagan. The latter two just carry too much risk to be worth a roster spot right now, although if you feel you need to swing for the fences to make up some ground Ginn's worth a shot. Martin might even be #1, at least if you don't have someone like Gates or Jason Witten already slotted in as your every-week TE starter.

Posted by Erik Siegrist at 10/19/2007 12:28:00 PM

Comments (5)

Why the NFL is King
Seahawks rookie Brandon Mebane on what he learned after playing on the kickoff return team in the season opener:

"Youíve got dudes running down there screaming and hollering at you. I was like 'Whoa.' This one guy running down there had a visor on and I couldnít see his eyes. He was just hollering. .. He said something like, 'Iím going to take your soul today.'"

That's just awesome.

Posted by Jason Thornbury at 10/18/2007 12:42:00 PM

Comments (1)

Fantasy Season From Hell? Hardly
In most fantasy leagues you've probably heard the comment "the carnage this year is unbelievable" and had fellow league members lament all the first-round busts. But is this year that much different than the past? The answer may surprise you.

A few years back I did a study with my friend Jeff Buchbinder called Don't Buck History With Your Pick that compared the statistical results to the preseason conventional wisdom. It showed the top pick in the draft earns so much, for example, that it's not worth trading down in almost any scenario.

The 2007 preseason top 25 features four busts this season (based on APD data from www.mockdraftcentral.com):

ADP Player Pos Team Value*
1 LaDainian Tomlinson RB SD 69
2 Steven Jackson RB STL 0
3 Larry Johnson RB KC 6
4 Frank Gore RB SF 7
5 Joseph Addai RB IND 25
6 Shaun Alexander RB SEA 6
7 Brian Westbrook RB PHI 34
8 Reggie Bush RB NO 2
9 Willie Parker RB PIT 10
10 Rudi Johnson RB CIN 0
11 Laurence Maroney RB NE 0
12 Peyton Manning QB IND 19
13 Travis Henry RB DEN 10
14 Willis McGahee RB BAL 28
15 Chad Johnson WR CIN 32
16 Maurice Jones-Drew RB JAX 12
17 Steve Smith WR CAR 44
18 Marvin Harrison WR IND 0
19 Cedric Benson RB CHI 5
20 Edgerrin James RB AZ 32
21 Terrell Owens WR DAL 26
22 Reggie Wayne WR IND 17
23 Torry Holt WR STL 12
24 Larry Fitzgerald WR AZ 17
25 Ronnie Brown RB MIA 67
* Thanks to data from Profootballreference.com.

I define a bust as someone who wouldn't qualify as a starter at the end of the season in a 12-team league that starts 1 QB and 2 RB and 2 WR(so top-12 for a QB, top-24 for RB or WR). No flex players to keep things simple.

How does that compare to previous seasons?

Year Zeros
2007 4
2006 9
2005 9
2004 6
2003 6
2002 4
2001 8
1999 10
1998 10
1997 5
1996 8
1995 4
1994 5
1993 10

As you can see, 2007 actually has less carnage than most seasons - well below the average of seven busts per season since 1993. The 1999 season was ugly. Four of the top five projected picks were all busts:

1. Terrell Davis - Season-ending knee injury

2. Fred Taylor - Just 10 games due to hamstring injury.

3. Jamal Anderson - Torn ACL

4. Dorsey Levens - Finished 12th overall

5. Steve Young QB - Career-ending concussion

How soon we forget. Or maybe most were not playing fantasy football back then.

This year's top-25 projected picks (based on ADP) are producing less than the last few years, however. So far the average 2007 player in the top 25 has produced just 11 percent on average compared to the top overall player. That figure hasn't been below 20 percent since 1994 and often is as high as 30 percent.

The 2007 data is a bit skewed because not everyone in the top 25 has had a bye week yet, so it's not a true comparison. So while there may not be more busts than in previous years, it's possible this year's preseason conventional wisdom was worse overall than in the past decade. But as Week 6 performances from Tomlinson and Larry Johnson show, it's pretty early for some of the top picks to be called busts.

But if Randy Moss or Tom Brady can keep their current pace they may accomplish something we haven't seen since Terry Allen in 1996 - a number one overall fantasy point producer who wasn't in the preseason top 20.

Posted by Peter Schoenke at 10/16/2007 10:24:00 PM

Comments (8)

Useless Fantasy Football Info Dep't
Usually, it's considered in poor taste in the fantasy community to toot one's fantasy team's horn, but that is not the purpose of this post -- it is more one of curiosity. I think that, this week, I may have set the record for the fewest percentage of team points contributed by running backs in a winning (and coincidentally a leaguewide-week-high) effort in a competitive, relatively traditional scoring league. It's a deep, 12-team league starting 2 QB, 4 WR, 3 RB, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF with 7 bench spots. Important stats are 6 points for passing/rushing/receiving TDs, 0.2 per completion, 1/30 per pass yard, 1/10 per rush yard, 1/15 per receiving yard, .25 per reception.

This week, with Jamal Lewis out, Travis Henry on Bye, and Rudi Johnson in should-I-start-him-or-should-I-not limbo (and Kenny Watson on my bench), I started Johnson (0.8 points), Sammy Morris (1.4), and Justin Fargas (2.32) for a total of 4.52 points. I won my game by a score of 140.91 to 113.21 with high-scorers Derek Anderson (36.82), the Baltimore defense (24), Eli Manning (21.25), Tony Gonzalez (21.05), Plaxico Burress (13.97), and Terrell Owens (11.9). Therefore, my running back points constituted a meager 3.2% of my points for the week.

Yes, it helps to start two quarterbacks, with such a quarterback-point-heavy scoring system. But still, the way it worked out, I thought it was interesting. Now I'll just sit back and wait for the deriding "Omigosh, I can't stand when people talk about their fantasy team" posts (if any) to roll in...

Posted by Bret Cohen at 10/15/2007 11:30:00 PM

Comments (6)

Sunday Live Blogging
Ok, Jared Allen is one helluva a pass rusher, but my goodness, what a dweeb. Does he always do that silly pose every time he makes a tackle or a sack?

The Bengals are so thin at LB right now that they moved Robert Geathers from DE to OLB. Tony Gonzalez is going to go nuts.

Why does anyone punt to Devin Hester? As RotoWire president Peter Schoenke suggests, is he worth starting as a 3rd WR if you get credit for his punt return TDs?

So far, Curtis Benson is averaging 5.9 yards/carry. Yeah, I'm surprised.

Fred Taylor goes from being a game-time decision to breaking out a long run on the first carry. Of course, John Carney misses the chip shot.

Posted by Jeff Erickson at 10/14/2007 10:47:00 AM

Comments (42)

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5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006