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Bleak Vikings Outlook
On the way to 3-13.

I think my 3-13 prediction for the Vikings this season is dead on. Next five games all should be losses: Chicago, Dallas, Philadelphia, San Diego and Green Bay.

The only possible wins I see on the rest of the schedule are at home against Oakland and Detroit.

Yes, it's that ugly.

Brad Childress is now 7-13 as head coach and the fan base is losing faith in the braintrust every day. Former Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Dan Barreiro and now KFAN 1130 AM in Minneapolis host wrote a great take on the Vikings situation:

http://www.kfan.com/pages/psn_danbarreiro.html [SOMEWHERE, CARL GERBSCHMIDT IS CHORTLING entry]

I'm not always a huge fan of Barreiro, but he nails this one. A must read for Vikings fans.

So while I may not be able to lay out as good a case for why the current Vikings braintrust is inept, here's my take:

1) No awareness of their talent/situation

When Brad Childress (and later GM Rick Spielman) took over in 2006 they inherited a 9-7 team that was seen as underperforming. Suddenly there's talk now of a long-term rebuliding effort. Rebuilding? In a weak division with an above-average defense? And when the Vikings have nearly the most room under the salary cap?

I'd look at that situation and think that maybe the time to make a push was now. Get a veteran QB and some wideout help and make the playoffs in 2007.

But that wasn't how this team went. Instead it went youth .. sort of. Tarvaris Jackson at QB. Rookies at WR. An offense that's almost the complete inverse of the Cris Carter-Randy Moss era.

2) Poor roster management

Ok, so maybe Tarvaris Jackson is going to to develop into a viable NFL quarterback. I haven't seen it so far other than a few glimpses in the 2006 preseason. But I'm willing to give the GM and coach the benefit of the doubt. But I do know that after 13 career games Brooks Bollinger isn't a viable NFL starter. So there's no way you can go into the season with only Jackson, who has little NFL experience, and Bollinger as your top two QBs.

Proof? The Vikes traded for a QB late in training camp (Kelly Holcomb) after coming to the same realization. Why overpay for cheap wares when the team could have traded for Trent Green or signed Jeff Garcia at low cost.

The same could be said for the running back situation. After drafting Adrian Peterson, why not trade Chester Taylor? And if not Taylor, why not trade Mewelde Moore? Too much talent at one position while there are holes at QB and WR.

3) Bad coaching

What's the mark of a great leader? Setting a plan and executing it. What were Childress' top priorities as coach? Ball security and execution on offense. How's he doing?

2006 2007
Penalities per game 7.7 7.25
Turnovers per game 2 2.25

[Stats thanks to http://www.startribune.com/vikings/story/1468595.html]

Funny how Childress' teams are among the most penalized in the NFL. He was supposed to be the disciplinarian.

It kind of reminds me how Mike Tice always listed turnovers as his No. 1 priority and the Vikings could never hold onto the ball. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. And I'm not even getting into detail about how Childress uses Adrian Peterson, by far his best offensive weapon, only two times in the second half against Green Bay.

Plus, God doesn't like the Vikings. So they are doomed.

What? You didn't know the almighty dislikes the purple?

Well Jon Kitna said that in Detroit's Week 2 win over the Vikings that god helped him recover from a concussion and re-enter the game. If that's true, then God must not favor the Vikings since he helped Kitna win the game.

With the coaching, personnel and god working against the Vikings, it's hard to see more than a few more wins.

Posted by Peter Schoenke at 10/10/2007 9:25:00 PM

Comments (6)

Monday Night Factoids
We have game data going back to the start of the 1983 season so I went through and looked up some tidbits relating to overcoming turnovers to win.

- Only five times since 1983 has a team thrown five interceptions and won the game, the most recent being a SEA at PIT game from 1992.

- Only once since 1983 has a visiting team thrown five interceptions and still won the game, a Dallas 26-10 win over Philadelphia in 1984. Dallas has now done it twice while no other visiting team has done it at all since 1983.

- Teams that threw five or more interceptions in a game were 5-97 since 1983.

- There have been eight games since 1983 where a team with a -5 or worse turnover margin has won, the most recent being Tennessee over Cleveland in 2000.

- Since 1983, no home team has lost a game in which they had a +5 or greater turnover margin, until last night. Home teams were 117-0 in that situation, visiting teams are 98-8.

-The granddaddy of all "overcoming turnovers to win" games appears to be a Pittsburgh over Tampa game from 1983 where Pittsburgh lost four fumbles and threw three interceptions but still beat a Tampa team that didn't turn the ball over one time.

Posted by Herb at 10/9/2007 8:41:00 AM

Comments (0)

AFC Least?
The Patriots could actually win more games this season than the other three teams in the division COMBINED. That's never happened before, has it?

Posted by SHOE at 10/8/2007 1:43:00 PM
Comments (3)

NFL Notes
The next time I hear someone proclaim that this team beat that team and therefore relating past events to future predictions, I’m changing the channel. If you haven’t learned the transitive property doesn’t apply to the NFL by now, you never will. Onto my thoughts from Week 5 from around the league:

The Trent Green block was shady, but watching Travis Johnson stand over someone unconscious and taunt a possibly paralyzed man was brutal. Unfortunate circumstances all around…The scarecrow wasn’t the one missing courage, by the way. That would be the lion…With Green’s concussion history, it would seem like a long shot that he plays again this season, wouldn’t it?…Owen Daniels is having one of the better fantasy seasons that’s flying under the radar…All things considered, Ron Dayne’s performance against the league’s worst rush defense was very disappointing…If a fantasy draft were held today, would Ronnie Brown be a top-5 pick?

Anyone who started Jacksonville’s defense in fantasy leagues has to be frustrated – they had a shutout until the last play of the game…Not sure why Maurice Jones-Drew was limited to nine carries, but it was nice to see him finally break one off. Expect more big plays from MJD moving forward…Larry Johnson is averaging 3.3 YPC and has yet to score a TD this season.

I’m liking Derek Anderson more and more as a fantasy quarterback; the poor Cleveland defense ensures the Browns have to pass a lot, as will the inept running game. Also, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow represent legitimate options in the passing game, with Joe Jurevicius a solid red zone target to boot. He’s getting 7.9 YPA and has thrown 10 touchdowns during his four starts. However, because Brady Quinn is almost certainly going to take over at some point, Anderson’s value is only short-term…I’m beginning to think Tom Brady is pretty good at this quarterback business…Sammy Morris is better than I thought.

I preached patience before, but you simply cannot start Drew Brees in fantasy leagues at this point. He has 11 times as many turnovers as he does touchdowns this season…For all of Sean Payton’s much-deserved praise last year, remember, this is a guy who once had play-calling duties relinquished mid-season by Jim Fassel…Put a fork in these Saints, they’re done…Nice to see Devery Henderson is alive and breathing…If you can trade Steve Smith for Plaxico Burress, do it.

Paging Kellen Clemens – Chad Pennington’s status as starter has an expiration date…Is there a worse run blocking unit other than the Jets’?…Brandon Jacobs looked great Sunday, exhibiting both power and the speed to get to the outside. He was a bogus holding penalty away from adding another 25-yard TD run onto an already impressive return from a knee injury. I’d treat him like a top-15 fantasy back right now – make sure your league mates do as well.

Santonio Holmes, everyone involved would appreciate it if you time your injuries a little differently from now on…Home/road splits are typically an unimportant stat in the NFL, but there’s something to it when it comes to Willie Parker. Last year, he averaged 3.5 YPC on the road and 5.2 YPC at home. This season, it’s 3.2 YPC when playing away and 4.8 YPC while at home…Shaun Alexander has averaged fewer than 4.0 YPC in 12 of his last 15 games. He has two favorable matchups coming up, but after that, I’d be trying to sell that stock like I’m Arthur Frobisher.

In Gus we trust? Hardly, but Frerotte was an obvious upgrade over an injured Marc Bulger, at least for fantasy purposes…Larry Fitzgerald is a top-5 and maybe even top-3 fantasy WR every game he plays without Anquan Boldin…Go ahead and make Kurt Warner your top waiver priority this week. He has the weapons and plays in the right division to be a QB1 for as long as Matt Leinart is sidelined.

The Falcons/Titans game was unwatchable. The quarterbacks combined for five interceptions with zero TDs. In all, there were seven turnovers, and the defenses accounted for more touchdowns (2) than the offenses (1) did…The Tose is Loose! Artose Pinner averaged 49.0 YPC Sunday…I’m telling you, Roddy White is going to finish with some nice numbers this season.

After a couple of lackluster performances and the bye week coming up, see how much it’d take to pry Kevin Jones off an opponents’ hands. He’ll be closer to 100 percent when he next takes the field (Week 7), and his touches are only going to increase from here on out. Despite Sunday’s evidence to the contrary, it’s a good Detroit offense, and he’ll be very active in the passing game. He’s the type of player to gamble on who could end up winning your league for you…Mike Sellers made some vicious runs Sunday, and now Clinton Portis owners have to hope he’s not the team’s new goal-line back.

It’s official – there need not any more evidence that running back is the most fungible position in football. Hello Kenton Keith…Do you realize Ike Hilliard has five more catches and just two fewer yards than Joey Galloway this season?…Mewelde Moore is a sneaky guy to stash in fantasy leagues right now. Already in trade talks with Tampa Bay, the Bucs will be even more eager to deal now that Michael Pittman is injured. MeMo is a dynamic back, averaging 4.9 YPC throughout his career and is a terrific receiver out of the backfield. He’s a deep sleeper who could pay major dividends down the road.

So maybe this Broncos team has some problems, after all…It looks like Jay Cutler’s path to Canton might hit a few unexpected bumps; still, his peripherals are pretty impressive, so expect more TD passes moving forward…Anyone who owns Michael Turner but not LaDainian Tomlinson should go try to hijack the LT owner with Turner’s performance fresh in mind…I was wrong stating in the preseason that Antonio Gates was a terrific third round pick – he should have been going in round 2…San Diego looked great and Tomlinson added 73 receiving yards, but his 3.2 YPC is actually pretty worrisome considering the game’s conditions and the fact Denver entered with the league’s second worst run defense. The 3.2 YPC was actually his second best effort of the season…Travis Henry to take a lie detector test? Let’s hope he doesn’t watch “Melrose Place.”

If you didn’t watch “Curb Your Enthusiasm” Sunday, you’re really missing out. If you didn’t watch the Ravens/49ers game Sunday, I’m jealous.

Looks like all of that FAAB spent on DeShawn Wynn may pay off, after all…If Cedric Benson performed his job this way in any profession other than football, he’d almost certainly be demoted by now…Greg Olsen is going to be a very good tight end in this league…I’m not sure if I’d rather own Donald Driver or Greg Jennings in fantasy leagues right now, but I do know it’s a toss up.

Posted by Dalton Del Don at 10/8/2007 1:14:00 PM
Comments (14)

Trent Green vs. Travis Johnson
A different perspective on the Trent Green - Travis Johnson play, and Olbermann's righteous indignation following. I still think Olbermann does a fantastic job on Sunday night, but the more I think about it, the poster here has it right.

Posted by Jeff Erickson at 10/8/2007 12:13:00 PM
Comments (4)

Sunday Live Blogging
Is Willie Parker/Najeh Davenport evolving into a Freeman McNeil/Brad Baxter or Tony Paige situation? In touchdown-heavy leagues, the decline in Parker's red zone usage has to be pretty frustrating.

Maurice Jones-Drew's owners have to be breathing a sigh of relief, although Greg Jones is still stealing away goal line carries. Larry Johnson's owners, on the other hand, have to be more than a little concerned. I really thought he was turning the corner after last week.

Posted by Jeff Erickson at 10/7/2007 12:20:00 PM

Comments (26)

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11/25/2007 - 12/1/2007
11/18/2007 - 11/24/2007
11/11/2007 - 11/17/2007
11/4/2007 - 11/10/2007
10/28/2007 - 11/3/2007
10/21/2007 - 10/27/2007
10/14/2007 - 10/20/2007
10/7/2007 - 10/13/2007
9/30/2007 - 10/6/2007
9/23/2007 - 9/29/2007
9/16/2007 - 9/22/2007
9/9/2007 - 9/15/2007
9/2/2007 - 9/8/2007
8/26/2007 - 9/1/2007
8/19/2007 - 8/25/2007
8/12/2007 - 8/18/2007
8/5/2007 - 8/11/2007
7/29/2007 - 8/4/2007
7/22/2007 - 7/28/2007
7/15/2007 - 7/21/2007
7/8/2007 - 7/14/2007
7/1/2007 - 7/7/2007
6/24/2007 - 6/30/2007
6/17/2007 - 6/23/2007
6/10/2007 - 6/16/2007
6/3/2007 - 6/9/2007
5/27/2007 - 6/2/2007
5/20/2007 - 5/26/2007
5/13/2007 - 5/19/2007
5/6/2007 - 5/12/2007
4/29/2007 - 5/5/2007
4/22/2007 - 4/28/2007
4/15/2007 - 4/21/2007
4/8/2007 - 4/14/2007
4/1/2007 - 4/7/2007
3/25/2007 - 3/31/2007
3/18/2007 - 3/24/2007
3/11/2007 - 3/17/2007
3/4/2007 - 3/10/2007
2/25/2007 - 3/3/2007
2/18/2007 - 2/24/2007
2/11/2007 - 2/17/2007
2/4/2007 - 2/10/2007
1/28/2007 - 2/3/2007
1/21/2007 - 1/27/2007
1/14/2007 - 1/20/2007
1/7/2007 - 1/13/2007
12/31/2006 - 1/6/2007
12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006
12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006