Now that the NFL draft is complete, it's time for fantasy football drafts to start - at least for those of us in the industry of putting together magazines and preseason rankings. I got the sixth pick in the Fantasy Sports Magazine expert draft.
It wasn't a great draw.
The top five spots are pretty well set: Tomlinson, A. Peterson, Westbrook, Addai, S. Jackson. Maybe the order is somewhat different, but most leagues at this time of year probably have those five unless someone decides Tom Brady will be that much better than the rest of the QB field again.
So who do you take at No. 6? Here are the candidates:
Frank Gore (SF) RB: Had a "disappointing" year last season, but still had over 1,500 combined receiving and rushing yards. Had over 2,000 in 2006. But he seems injury prone, the SF offense needs to prove it can pass and has DeShaun Foster in the mix.
Tom Brady (NE) QB: If he throws 50 TDs again, and 14 more than the next QB, then he's probably the call here. But remember after Peyton Manning threw 49 TDs, he threw just 28 the next season. Plus it's against my religion to take a QB in the first round.
Randy Moss (NE) WR: Do you want to take a WR in the first round? I'd rather have an every-down RB here. Sure, Moss could get 15+ TDs again, but he'll need about that many to justify this spot. He may not be as motivated as last season to prove himself, and defenses may focus on him more than ever. You just don't win leagues taking WRs this high.
Marion Barber (DAL) RB: I don't like taking any RB this high who is in a time share. Felix Jones will cut into his playing time just like Julius Jones last season.
Larry Johnson (KC) RB: He's coming off a foot injury that limited him to eight games and I'm a believer that those 380+ carry seasons (he had a record 416 in 2006) trash a player's career.
Ryan Grant (GB) RB: I'm not investing a pick this high on a guy who hasn't even proven it for a full season without a prior body of work. Plus with Favre gone, defenses will focus on the running game.
Laurence Maroney (NE) RB: He's going to have a breakout season one of these days, but he was too injury prone and underused last year for this spot. Sammy Morris will be healthy to steal carries as well.
Marshawn Lynch (BUF) RB: Can Buffalo pass the ball? Is Trent Edwards really the answer? Lynch may not get much breathing room in the offense.
Clinton Portis (WAS) RB: Nice bounceback season last year, but he's an old 27 years old (1,710 career carries) and memories of Ladell Betts stealing carries in 2006 linger.
So given all my negativity, who would I take? My first advice would be to trade down. I'd rather get any of these guys six picks later. Our friends at Mock Draft Central show Brady going No. 6 in their ADP. I'd take Lynch. He seems to have the least downside since he'll get the bulk of carries and has room to improve in his second season with just an average passing game.
Luckily I didn't need to make the decision. Tom Brady went fifth in the Fantasy Sports Magazine experts draft. Joesph Addai was still on the board. It was a no-brainer pick. My guess is that those with the No. 6 spot won't have it as easy this summer.
Posted by Peter Schoenke at 4/30/2008 11:57:00 AM