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Interesting John Clayton Article
Of all the ESPN football guys, I like John Clayton the best. The whole schtick he had with Salisbury picking on him all the time was ridiculous. Salisbury is the NFL version of Screamin A. Smith. Neither talks much sense, but they're just really loud. Either way, Clayton has an awesome article on ESPN today.

He created the best 53-man roster possible while staying under the cap. Really interesting article, but one part of it seems more theoretical than realistic. He says that the cover-2 costs less to build than a 3-4 defense and that teams use it to save money. If you look at the Colts and Bucs, I guess early on they didn't spend much because players they targeted like Ronde Barber or Bob Sanders were considered undersized and could be had cheaper. The Cover-2 hides their weaknesses and plays to their speed. But, with more teams running the cover-2 is it still true today?

Posted by Eddie at 7/13/2006 8:11:00 AM

Comments (1)

Don't B.S. the Reader
I've been reading too much fantasy football copy that substitutes bluster for analysis and certainty for what should merely be a reasoned lean. Don't tell me that player x is a bust, and it's stupid to draft him, or that player y was a reach in the fourth round. Nobody knows what's going to happen this year. If you don't like player x, tell me what his negatives are and what I should be concerned about. And leave room for the possibility that those concerns are unwarranted.

Sounding like you're certain about who's a sleeper and who's a bust is foolish. Give the facts and the analysis and also entertain the opposite argument - what would have to happen for that player to be a good value after all? How likely is it? I think Rudi Johnson is going to be a bust (Former first round pick Chris Perry's around, Carson Palmer's not 100 percent healthy, and Johnson doesn't catch passes). But if you draft him at No. 6, could he pan out? Absolutely - he could be the exclusive goal line back in a top offense that doesn't throw to its tight ends much from in close. Johnson is on my bust list, and I'm not drafting him where I'd have to, but I'm not going to front like I'm certain about it, or that you're an idiot if you do draft him.

I realize people want their experts to be experts and go out on a limb, and we do that all the time. We rank our players, we compile our lists and we give our reasons. But if you oversell your leans to pander to the reader that wants things to be black and white, you're doing him a disservice. It's no different than political talking heads from the extreme left or right that bludgeon all nuance out of the argument. It might be entertaining, but does the reader really want "infotainment" from a fantasy site, or an insightful analysis of the pertinent facts as they relate to player value, team tendencies and overall strategy? As someone who has a hand in RotoWire's football content, I'm betting on the latter.

Ask yourself this: how often do the teams you think are the best right after your draft actually pan out that way at season's end. In any reasonably decent 12-team field of owners, if anyone wants to pick out the top four teams after the draft, and leave me the rest, I'd lay even money on one the "worst" eight winning the league. (Of course, this bet would require that no one knew the identities of the owners and just saw the rosters).

Uncertainly is a major part fantasy football and rather than acting like we're above it, it's better to be honest about it and incorporate it into our strategies. (It's a good reason to draft multiple high upside players in the middle rounds, giving yourself the best chance of one panning out). It's also why you should be flexible and willing to draft a player you're not high on if he slips in your draft.

While we don't know what's going to happen specifically, we can position ourselves to take maximum advantage of the ways things tend to happen generally. We can understand that wide receivers tend to break out in their second and third seasons, that running backs tend to break down after 1500 carries or age 30, that kickers and defenses are notoriously unreliable from year to year. And we can knowingly go against those trends where we feel it's warranted. But either way, we're all flying blind to an extent together, and winning your league is more a matter of positioning yourself wisely and being on top of what's going on week to week, than having special powers of prediction.



Posted by Chris Liss at 7/13/2006 12:16:00 AM

Comments (3)

Gamblers Unite!
Congress this week passed overwhelmingly a bill to prevent people from using credit cards and other payment forms to gamble online. We'll put aside the issue of priorities -- as the apocalypse marches ever near Congress wastes time on online gaming? -- because that's the usual M.O. for these people. But ...

1. The hypocrasy is obvious. More and more, states are relying on lotteries, casinos (Indian and otherwise), slots and other gambling to fund their coffers. 40-plus states run lotteries, a game that has the worst odds in the history of gambling. And they market it to the people that can least afford to play -- the poor.

2. The contradictions are obvious. The bill exempts horse racing. Gambling, like alcohol, can be destructive. And like the alcoholic who runs out of Jim Beam satiates himself with Thunderbird, a gambling addict will bet the ponies online if sports or cards are unavailable.

3. The disingenuousness is obvious. The American Gambing Association, which represents casinos, opposes online gambling. Of course it does. It wants gamblers to patron its casinos, not gamble at home in their underwear.

4. The P.R. ploy by the NFL, NBA, MLB and NHL, all of whom favor the bill, is obvious. The leagues don't want to be perceived as liking gambling, no matter the NFL, at least, was built on gambling. Leagues should want gamblers to bet online, rather than with a bookie. An online book will never ask heavily debted gamblers, say, college students, to help fix games (nor will they break legs). And online gambling has a built-in mechanism to discourage athletes from gambling -- the financial records. How much easier to verify would the Pete Rose affair have been had he bet online?

There are more reasons why this is so silly. The problem, though, is there's a limited lobby for internet gaming because internet casinos are run off-shore. The Senate apparently doesn't have a companion bill yet, so this absurdity has a ways to go. But do your part now and call your Senators and tell them to get back to working on the important things -- like regulating the amount of water in a toilet.

This is the voting record on the bill, H.R. 4411.

Posted by Jason Thornbury at 7/12/2006 7:09:00 PM

Comments (2)

L'affaire Zidane: Fools All
The aftermath of Zidane's headbutt heard 'round the world might be more distressing than the actual play. Sure, the what-could-you-possibly-be-thinking meltdown has tarnished Zidane's marvelous career, but everyone else involved the continuing drama is proving a fool, too.

First, Materazzi was assumed to have called Zidane, of Algerian descent, the “son of a terrorist whore," or so said a lip reader. A lip reader? Yeah, that's a reliable source. So reliable in fact that another lip reader told the BBC that Materazzi wished Zidane "an ugly death to you and your family" followed by "Go f*** yourself." Interview other players, coaches, the ref? No, let's hire a lip reader to crack the case. Quality journalism.

Next, Materazzi is a stooge. Denying the allegations, he said, "I'm not cultured and I don't even know what an Islamic terrorist is." What? Are you really trying to sell that one, Marco? OK, fine, the next time you take the pitch in London, Madrid or Bombay, ask the locals about Islamic terrorists.

That brings us to Algerian president Abdelaziz Bouteflik, who defended Zidane by saying, "We are just human beings, our duty is not to judge, our duty is to understand." Yeah, that's great advice for the French. How'd that work in 1940?

Then, we have the asinine droolings of clown Bernard Henri-Levy in the Wall Stree Journal (sorry, no link, subscription only):

"Here is a man of providence, a savior, who was sought out, like Achilles in his tent of grudge and rage, because he was believed to be the only one who could avert his countrymen's fated decline. Better yet, he's a super-Achilles who—unlike Homer's—did not wait for an Agamemnon (in the guise of coach Raymond Domenech) to come begging him to re-enlist; rather, he decided himself, spontaneously, after having "heard" a voice calling him, to come back from his Spanish exile and—putting his luminous armor back on, and flanked by his faithful Myrmidons (Makelele, Vieira, Thuram)—reverse the new Achaeans' ill fortune and allow them to successfully pull together.

"And then this valiant knight who is a hair's breadth from victory and just minutes from the end of a historic match (and of a career that will carry him into the Pantheon of stadium-gods after Pelé, Platini and Maradona); this giant who, like the Titans of the ancient world, has known Glory, then Exile, then Return and Redemption; this redeemer, this blue angel dressed in white, who had only the very last steps to scale to enter Olympus for good, commits a crazy incomprehensible act that amounts to disqualification from the soccer ritual—the final image of him that will go down in history and, in lieu of apotheosis, will cast him into hell."

Is this guy for real? Ease up on the meds, dude.

Finally, Zidane today came clean about what made him snap: Materazzi talked smack about his mom and sis. No, No, not that! Single-handidly ruining France's World Cup chances because of wisecracks about your sister's holiest of holies? Yeah, that's reasonable. What's worse is this: "I can't regret what I did because it would mean that he (Materazzi) was right to say what he said." I guess we shouldn't be surprised with that kind of logic from the French.

Oh, by the way, Zidane denied Materazzi called him an Islamic terrorist. Fire the lip readers.

Even the "controversies" in soccer, sorry, futbol, are stupid.

Posted by Jason Thornbury at 7/12/2006 12:33:00 PM

Comments (0)

Portis
I think Portis could be in for a big year with Saunders there and some decent talent at receiver/tight end to keep people honest.

Posted by Tim Schuler at 7/10/2006 12:17:00 AM
Comments (2)

World Cup Refs...
are the worst in sports...

Posted by Mike D. at 7/9/2006 1:21:00 PM
Comments (5)

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11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006