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Injury Opportunities
I have the second pick in the draft in an upcoming "Experts" League ... and please note that Expert is a term thrown around very loosely these days. Second is almost like being fourth last season; you knew Tomlinson, Alexander, and Johnson were coming off the board in most drafts and we know now that you had a 66% chance of being happy whichever you got. This season there's the problem of how many possibilities there are and the costs it poses in your head.

At the second pick, there's several guys who should be credible picks. There's Steven Jackson, who's probably the consensus #2. There's Frank Gore, who my boys at Pro Football Prospectus drop in at #2. There's Johnson again, assuming he signs. But the depth at RB is crazy - you could look all the way down to #20 and say "You know, this guy could put up elite level numbers" and not have people look at you funny. At least not too funny.

Which brings me back to Gore. The worry there isn't that the Niners offense stinks (it's not bad), that the schedule is off (it's not), or even that he broke his hand in the pre-season (so what.) It's that he has a long history of injuries. The risk of pulling the Alexander card out of the deck this season, of drafting an injury that high, is one that has to be addressed.

Yes, the upside is enough that I can consider it, but I started thinking about something new and I'll admit two things right off the bat -- I'm thinking out loud and have no idea if this is anything. I made a couple calls to see if those "in the know" -- one to a scout and one to a doctor -- to see what they thought about what I'm calling "graduated risk."

In essence, an injury has a set cost -- a certain number of games and an expected number of lost points. An injury in pre-season, assuming no carryover into week 1 and beyond, has no costs. Call this the "Kevin Jones scenario" - Jones, coming back from his foot injury, might not be back until Week 6 (if PUPed) or could be back in Week 1 (if you buy what he's saying.) Now, with Alexander last season, his foot injury was relatively predictable, happened in the middle of the season, but had a high cost. He was back for the fantasy playoffs, where the cost gets even higher.

Since injuries happen, normally, in one specific game, is there any way to tell whether there's an increased risk in any given game and thereby adjust the risk. "Yes," says the scout. "It has to be that way and it's mostly based on the defense. You play the Bears or Eagles and you're going to feel it." I thought that made sense, but the injuries don't really back that up. Spectacular, memorable injuries don't seem to occur more frequently against powerful defenses or even defenses that are keyed on the blitz.

The doctor had the opposite thought. "Traumatic injuries aren't quite random, but it's close. An ankle rolls or a guy ends up going low and takes out someone's knee. I mean, who took out Donovan McNabb last season?" (I not only don't know, I couldn't find out with a search.) If traumatic injuries are essentially incalcuable beyond the knowing risk, there's no real way to break them down to any graduated scale.

It's an interesting thought that I'd like your feedback on -- how can we better gauge injury risk on a more granular level? What I do know is that by talking to scouts, doctors, and trainers, I'm making sure that you get the best injury information out there. If your source isn't ... well, you have to wonder where they get their information.

Posted by Will Carroll at 8/17/2007 11:59:00 AM

Comments (4)

Leagues Where Return Yardage Counts
I've come across quite a few Ask An Expert questions wanting to know some players who might get return yards in addition to offensive or defensive stats, and rather than having to research it every time, I figured I'd just post my list. Feel free to add to it if I'm missing anyone, or if you don't think these guys will get the chance to return enough kicks. (I purposely left out players who are return-men only, i.e., who get almost all of their yardage from returns.

RBs: Maurice Jones-Drew, Reggie Bush (occasionally), Marcel Shipp, Maurice Hicks, Michael Turner, Leon Washington, Kevin Faulk

WR: Santonio Holmes, Antwaan Randle El, Devin Hester, Greg Jennings, Bobby Wade, Troy Williamson, Nate Burleson, Samie Parker, Dennis Northcutt, Wes Welker, Ted Ginn, Jr., Roscoe Parrish

DB: Ellis Hobbs, Terrence McGee

Posted by Chris Liss at 8/17/2007 12:19:00 AM

Comments (8)

Market Watch
UNDERVALUED

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (ADP 35) Ė Heís missed a couple of games each of the past two seasons, but donít let that mask the fact heís one of the elite receivers in the NFL today. Houshmandzadeh may have the best hands of anyone in the game and excels in traffic. He also plays for one of the best offensive units that should only be better with Carson Palmer one more year removed from knee surgery. He also wonít be competing with Chris Henry (suspension) for looks over the first half of the season, which leaves nine scores from last season on the table. He caught the best percentage of balls thrown his way last year (69 percent) of any WR in the league and received twice as many red zone looks (22) as teammate Chad Johnson, so heís definitely the favorite to score the most TDs in Cincy, at least through the air.

Braylon Edwards (71) - He entered training camp this season no longer running his gums but letting his play do the talking and with a brand new attitude. Yes, Iím concerned about Clevelandís QB situation, and no, playing four games against Pittsburgh and Baltimore secondaries isnít ideal. However, Edwards is talented and has shown solid progress over his first two years in the league. Expect continued natural progression in this his third-year as a pro, and donít forget, he played all of last year while recovering from a torn ACL, so he wonít truly be back to full strength until this season. 884 receiving yards and six touchdowns are nothing to write home about, but itís all in context. Those numbers from a second year guy at less than full strength in a poor offense suggests his future could be special.

Adrian Peterson (59) Ė Peterson has questions surrounding his collarbone and overall durability. He also plays for a team with a shaky quarterback and wide receivers. That said, this isnít just any rookie running back, as Peterson is a special talent. The Vikings boast one of the best offensive lines in football with Bryant McKinnie, Steve Hutchinson and Matt Birk leading the way. Minnesotaís No. 1 ranked run defense is also a plus for Petersonís value, as even if their defense allows points, time of possession should almost always favor the Vikings. It remains to be seen how stubborn Brad Childress is with incumbent starter Chester Taylor, but the franchise didnít draft ďADĒ with the seventh overall pick to sit him. This is exactly the type of player who can win you a fantasy league.

OVERVALUED

Chester Taylor (58) Ė How Taylor sports a higher ADP than Adrian Peterson is beyond comprehension and reason. Taylorís most notable accomplishment last year was durability, as he was able to rack up more than 1,200 rushing yards for no other reason than getting 303 carries. He wore down badly toward the end of the season and represents nothing more than an average NFL running back at best. Cutting last yearís totals in half looks like a solid estimation for his 2007 numbers.

Peyton Manning (14) - According to MockDraftCentralís data, the latest Manning was drafted in 508 drafts over the past week was at No. 24, meaning he lasted past the second round in zero leagues that were 12-teams deep. This is crazy. The only way Manning even begins to become 2nd round value is if he throws for 49 TDs again. If he tosses 28.25 touchdowns, which is his average season if you take away the 2004 outlier and a far more likely outcome, heís worth nothing more than a late fourth and probably early fifth round pick. He might be the best NFL player of all-time, but unless fantasy leagues start drastically changing scoring systems or your league typically selects 15 QBs in the first couple rounds of your draft, it makes the most sense to wait on the position. Later options like Tony Romo and Ben Roethlisberger will get 75 percent of Manningís production. You simply will not be able to do the same with the running back position. One caveat, in leagues that count 6-points per TD pass, Manningís value does increase.

Marion Barber (37) - I actually really like Barber as a football player, but I donít trust Wade Phillipsí ability to share my judgment. Yes, Barber led the NFC in touchdowns last season in limited playing time, but if Jones gets 75 percent of the carries, and heíll be motivated in a contract year, Barber is simply too risky to be a third round pick. This situation is far from settled, and early indications point to Phillips preferring Jones as his guy.

Posted by Dalton Del Don at 8/14/2007 10:03:00 AM
Comments (0)

First Draft Thoughts
I did my first draft late last week and it didn't go exactly how I expected. It was a public league and was filled with a varied crew. There was a "homer" who only drafted Saints, one guy who had a Wisconsin bias, and another that was drafting straight down the ranked list. If you think you know how your draft is going to go, you're probably wrong. What you don't want to do is what one guy did, drafting Warrick Dunn in the fourth round. That's fine, maybe, if he hadn't just had neck surgery, but it's almost as bad as calling out a guy that's already been drafted. It goes to show that, especially in online leagues, you're likely to get opportunities you never expected. With the 10th pick (of 10), I got Brian Westbrook. Yeah, I got the 8th guy on the Rotowire board (6th on mine - not touching Larry Johnson or Laurence Maroneu in the top 10.) Why? Because someone picked Peyton Manning at 1-4 which was followed by a homer pick of Drew Brees at 1-5. I followed Westbrook on the turnaround pick (11th overall) with a bit of a reach, going with Roy Williams. I couldn't pull the trigger on Maurice Jones-Drew at 11, something I may regret, and I like Williams over Steve Smith at WR. He's an Odessa boy, so it's a bit of a homer pick and a bit of faith in Mike Martz. I took Thomas Jones in the third and Jon Kitna in the fourth, both decent value there. Some other notable picks -- Marshawn Lynch in the fifth (couldn't pass up the value), Vincent Jackson in the ninth (need and value), Fred Taylor in the tenth (again, value), Green Bay D in the thirteenth (I get the #6 ranked D by being patient), and finally, took Rex Grossman with the final pick of the 15th. Grossman? What? Look at this stage, it was about upside. I actually considered not drafting a second QB, but Dallas Clark was picked just ahead of me. It was either Jason Campbell or Grossman and I figure that at worst, I dump Grossman and hit the waiver wire if he's not improved. You have to be ready for anything, even Drew Brees in the first round.

Posted by Will Carroll at 8/12/2007 2:40:00 PM
Comments (7)

Special Texans
The Texans still have work to do on offense, scoring just one touchdown in five red-zone trips in a loss to the Bears on Saturday, but special teams may be a strength of this team. Placekicker Kris Brown connected on four field goals, but that's not what I'm talking about. Predicting field goal attempts is hard to do, and Brown's been below the league average in terms of FGAs in four of his five seasons with Houston. However, if Houston's kick returners are effective as they were Saturday night, Brown may be in line for a record number of attempts this year. Most notable on special teams Saturday was Houston's returners, who may be among the best in the league. Jerome Mathis, a former Pro-Bowler and healthy for the first time in two years, had a 78-yard kickoff return. And rookie Jacoby Jones had a nifty 22-yard punt return that could have been more had he not made the wrong cut. Unfortunately, the Texans' offense could do little with the advanced field position the returners gave them, setting for two field goals. It's early, I know, but if you use kick- and punt-returners in your fantasy leagues, Mathis and Jones are two guys to keep an eye on.

Posted by johnny at 8/12/2007 8:36:00 AM
Comments (0)

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6/3/2007 - 6/9/2007
5/27/2007 - 6/2/2007
5/20/2007 - 5/26/2007
5/13/2007 - 5/19/2007
5/6/2007 - 5/12/2007
4/29/2007 - 5/5/2007
4/22/2007 - 4/28/2007
4/15/2007 - 4/21/2007
4/8/2007 - 4/14/2007
4/1/2007 - 4/7/2007
3/25/2007 - 3/31/2007
3/18/2007 - 3/24/2007
3/11/2007 - 3/17/2007
3/4/2007 - 3/10/2007
2/25/2007 - 3/3/2007
2/18/2007 - 2/24/2007
2/11/2007 - 2/17/2007
2/4/2007 - 2/10/2007
1/28/2007 - 2/3/2007
1/21/2007 - 1/27/2007
1/14/2007 - 1/20/2007
1/7/2007 - 1/13/2007
12/31/2006 - 1/6/2007
12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006
12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006