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Favre Risk Matrix
I understand why the Favre situation went down like it did with his trade to the Jets. Sure, Favre was a bit of a prima donna and was unfair to the team by making his retirement decision so late (or changing his mind). The Packers were stubborn in not taking him back, when I think he clearly was the best option at quarterback to win in 2008. But I can see why they wanted to move on.

What I don't understand is the upside of the situation for Packers GM Ted Thompson in trading Favre.

Part of the problem is that coming off a 13-3 season with the team making it to the NFC Championship, the risk is just to the downside based on pure math that the Packers will do worse. So a decision of this magnitude is likely to go poorly in any scenario. But all the risk is to the downside for him in this situation. Let's take a look:

Scenario Impact on Thompson
Packers don't make playoffs. Favre plays well. Thompson looks bad. Fans miffed Favre wasn't kept.
Packers don't make playoffs. Favre doesn't play well. Still a loss for Thompson because team stunk.
Packers make playoffs. Favre doesn't play well. A clear winner for Thompson. Although there may still be people who feel Favre was a better choice if the Packers don't go as far as last year.
Packers make playoffs. Favre plays well. Split decision for Thompson. If the Packers don't do as well as last year (lose in the first round, are only a wild card) many will say the team would have been better with Favre. If the Packers make the NFC Championship game again, there's still a chance people feel they would have won with Favre (such as if Aaron Rogers has a bad game). If they win the Super Bowl, well it's a winner for Thompson in any scenario.

This is obviously an oversimplification, but 2 of the 4 scenarios are losers for Thompson. And a third is a split decision. That's a 62.5 percent chance this doesn't go well for Thompson.

Now lets look at if Favre had stayed.

Scenario Impact on Thompson
Packers don't make playoffs. Favre plays well. Thompson will look bad no matter what if the Packers lose, but Favre playing well may mitigate the negative impact.
Packers don't make playoffs. Favre doesn't play well. A loss for Thompson, but the impact may be mitigated. It's not like fans would know what Aaron Rogers would have done.
Packers make playoffs. Favre doesn't play well. Probably a winner for Thompson in any scenario because at that point it's hard to think fans would believe Rogers would have done better.
Packers make playoffs. Favre plays well. Pretty much a winner for Thompson in any scenario even if they didn't go as far as last season.

With Favre returning, 2 of 4 scenarios look good for Thompson and the other 2 are kind of split decision. So let's call that a 75 percent change keeping Favre works in Thompson's favor. Maybe it's less because the split decisions are a bit murky if you convert them to lower percentages. But either way it seems clear the odds look better keeping Favre on the roster. There's also a scenario where you keep Favre, he gets hurt or plays poor enough to get benched, and Aaron Rogers comes in and saves the day. That's a plus for Thompson.

I'm sure we can think of a 100 more, but I wanted to keep this simple just to show the basic risk for the GM/organization.

Now Thompson probably didn't take any of this into account. With no one owner (the team is community owned), he may have more job security than most and his status probably depends less on fan support. Plus the Packers are sold out every year, so it's not like the ticket base will decline with this decision. And team management seems firmly behind Thompson at this point. And do you really want a GM basing decisions on what the perception will be? Probably not.

Even so, this is a decision that I still think impacts his job status and certainly his legacy. And I think the odds are against it going well.

Lastly, has there been a player who was one of the top players for a franchise - a marketing icon for the organization - who was traded/let go while under contract and coming off a good year? The Oilers trading Wayne Gretzky in 1988 to the L.A. Kings is the biggest parallel. Maybe Joe Montana's trade to the Chiefs from the 49ers is close, but he wasn't coming off a great season (played one game to show he was healthy after missing almost two years due to injury). Still, the situation is rare regardless of the circumstances. Yet, both the 49ers and Oilers won titles just two years after the trades. Maybe those are good signs for the Packers.

Posted by Peter Schoenke at 8/7/2008 12:06:00 PM

Comments (9)

Draft Logistic Advice
What's the best way to do a fantasy football draft or auction? Here's some advice from someone who's in 30+ fantasy drafts/auctions per year.

First, it's always the most convinient to just hold your draft/auction with the service that hosts your league such as ESPN, Yahoo! Sports, FoxSports, NFL.com, Sports Illustrated, etc. [Don't want to leave out any of our partners here].

Or some commissioner services, such as MyFantasyLeague which powers RotoWire's Fantasy Football Commissioner, have their own draft rooms.

The upside here is clear. You draft in the same environment where you run your league and the commish doesn't have to go through the pain of re-entering rosters.

But sometimes that doesn't work out for your league. Maybe there are too many technically illiterate folks in your league. Maybe you'd rather do the draft in person or over the phone to get live smack talk. Or maybe you have a league with some quirky rules that don't fit the major providers.

In that case, MockDraftCentral and Fantasyauctioneer are great outlets. You may not be able to export the results to your commissioner service of choice, but the upside is that they run your draft/auction very fast (auto picks and a que really speed things up) and allow for a lot of flexibility. The downside is the technically challenged guy in your league is going to need some hand holding.

If you want to do a draft via conference call, then try freeconferencecall.com. There's no charge for the conference call itself, everyone has to pay their own long distance, however. If you're doing a weeknight or weekend draft, that's usually not a problem for those with cell phones since most plans have free minutes at night and on weekends. Another way to conference call is through skype. It works great with two caveats: 1) you need everyone in your league to download the software (tough for the tech challenged) and 2) you really need everyone to have headsets or the feedback from external speakers is a killer. But when everyone is set up, the conference call works great and includes a chat room and it's totally free.

And then there's the old standby of online chatrooms. AOL and Yahoo instant message services are the most used. Both are quick and efficient, but there are often delays in posts, which becomes a problem if you are doing an auction. And sometimes someone in your league can't figure out how to download the software or their online connection blocks or doesn't work well with the service.

And lastly if you go the non-online software route to run your draft, using Google Docs is a huge help. You can invite everyone in your league to check out a spreadsheet at the same time that can be updated online in real time. It's a must for an auction league if you have keepers and crazy in-draft trades (it really helped out for our 18-team mixed league, 40-man roster staff baseball league). There's also a chat room within the spreadsheet as well. I bet it's possible to do a full draft via Google Docs.

Hope that helps. Do you have any tips to help the readers here in order to make the most thankless job on the planet (being commissioner) better?

Posted by Peter Schoenke at 8/6/2008 9:47:00 AM

Comments (2)

RotoWire Staff "Steak" League Draft
We had our annual Steak League Draft on Monday, and I've posted the results below.

It's a tough league because it's 14 teams, we use IDPs and we added a third WR this year. That and the fact that if you're in the bottom half, you're shelling out for steak, shrimp cocktail and more than a couple drinks. (Last place buys his own and for TWO other people).

(Note: In seven years, I have yet to buy anyone a steak. I did have the indignity a few years ago of buying my own steak, as I finished in the middle once).

The parameters are: 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DL, 1 LB, 1 DB, 6 Bench.

Scoring is 3/6, 20/10. Kickers are face value, tackle = 1, sack = 3, INT = 5, TD = 6.

Dan Pennucci Erik Siegrist Mike Romanowski Jeff Erickson Josh Ross Herb Ilk Dalton Del Don
1 Ladainian Tomlinson Adrian Peterson Joseph Addai Brian Westbrook Steven Jackson Marion Barber Frank Gore
2 Jamal Lewis Jonathan Stewart Andre Johnson Tom Brady Willis McGahee Laurence Maroney Darren McFadden
3 Plaxico Burress Santanio Holmes Ronnie Brown Chad Johnson Reggie Bush Peyton Manning Brandon Marshall
4 Jason Witten Dwayne Bowe Carson Palmer Jerricho Cotchery Roy Williams Greg Jennings Calvin Johnson
5 Rashard Mendenhall Wes Welker Kevin Smith Antonio Gates Chris Chambers Marvin Harrison Nate Burleso
6 Matt Hasselback Patrick Crayton Chris Cooley Fred Taylor Patrick Willis Reggie Brown Matt Schaub
7 Bryant Johnson Chris Johnson Joey Galloway Ahmad Bradshaw Ronald Curry Dallas Clark Vincent Jackson
8 Darrell Jackson Eli Manning Bernard Berrian Ray Rice Pierre Thomas Devin Hester Tony Scheffler
9 Chris Perry Steven Smith Ahman Green Javon Walker Donovan McNabb Tatum Bell David Garrard
10 Matt Leinart Jason Campbell Philip Rivers Leon Washington Brandon Stokely Deuce McAllister Kenny Watson
11 Chad Jackson LaDell Betts Jared Allen Jerry Porter Todd Heap Derrick Mason David Harris
12 Will Smith Nick Barnett Brian Urlacher Leigh Bodden Adrian Wilson Angelo Crowell Trent Cole
13 DeMeco Ryans Tamba Hali Justin McCareins Maurice Morris Brian Calhoun Patrick Kerney DeAngelo Hall
14 T.J. Duckett Sean Jones Nate Kaeding Kevin Walter Darren Sproles Atari Bigby Greg Olsen
15 Antonio Bryant LJ Smith Lorenzo Booker K. VandenBosch Troy Williamson Isaac Bruce Tim Hightower
16 Rob Bironas Shaun Suisham Gibril Wilson Barrett Ruud Leonard Little Mason Crosby Andre Hall
17 Kerry Rhodes Earl Bennett Early Doucet Phil Dawson Josh Brown Jeff Garcia Ryan Longwell


Jason Thornbury Chris Liss Derek VanRiper Tim Schuler Tim McCaigue Peter Schoenke Joe Sheehan
1 Marshawn Lynch Randy Moss Ryan Grant Clinton Portis Reggie Wayne Larry Johnson Braylon Edwards
2 Steve Smith Michael Turner Marques Colston Larry Fitzgerald Brandon Jacobs Terrell Owens Maurice Jones-Drew
3 Earnest Graham Drew Brees Matt Forte Willie Parker Tony Romo Rudi Johnson Anquan Boldin
4 Jeremy Shockey Roddy White Torry Holt T.J. Houshmandzadeh Julius Jones Kellen Winslow Jr. LenDale White
5 Lee Evans Thomas Jones Edgerrin James Hines Ward Santana Moss DeAngelo Williams Derek Anderson
6 Bobby Engram Anthony Gonzalez Tony Gonzalez Selvin Young Ryan Torain Donald Driver Kevin Curtis
7 D.J. Hackett Alge Crumpler Laveraneus Coles Felix Jones Sidney Rice Jay Cutler Owen Daniels
8 Ricky Williams Chester Taylor Ben Roethlisberger Vernon Davis Mark Clayton Justin Fargas Jerious Norwood
9 Chris Brown Reggie Williams Nate Clements Marc Bulger Brandon Jackson Donte' Stallworth Steve Slaton
10 Aaron Rodgers Robert Meachem Jake Delhomme Vince Young Justin Gage Jamaal Charles Ted Ginn Jr.
11 Ernest Wilford Brett Favre Aaron Kampman Fred Jackson Jon Kitna Antonio Chatman Kellen Clemens
12 Michael Jenkins Justin Tuck Drew Carter Heath Miller Jacob Hester Mario Williams DeShaun Foster
13 Kirk Morrison Derrick Ward Jon Beason Nick Folk London Fletcher-Baker Kevin Jones Michael Bush
14 Elvis Dumervil Jonathan Vilma S. Gostkowski E.J. Henderson Jason Taylor Shawne Merriman Marcus Trufant
15 O. Atogwe Adam Vinatieri Mike Hart Drew Bennett Clinton Hart LaMont Jordan Osi Umenyiora
16 Shayne Graham Kenny Phillips Zach Miller Aaron Schobel Ben Utecht Bob Sanders Zach Thomas
17 Jamarcus Russell Alex Smith Darius Walker Donte Whittier Josh Scobee Kris Brown Neil Rackers


Posted by Chris Liss at 8/5/2008 9:32:00 AM

Comments (9)

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8/5/2007 - 8/11/2007
7/29/2007 - 8/4/2007
7/22/2007 - 7/28/2007
7/15/2007 - 7/21/2007
7/8/2007 - 7/14/2007
7/1/2007 - 7/7/2007
6/24/2007 - 6/30/2007
6/17/2007 - 6/23/2007
6/10/2007 - 6/16/2007
6/3/2007 - 6/9/2007
5/27/2007 - 6/2/2007
5/20/2007 - 5/26/2007
5/13/2007 - 5/19/2007
5/6/2007 - 5/12/2007
4/29/2007 - 5/5/2007
4/22/2007 - 4/28/2007
4/15/2007 - 4/21/2007
4/8/2007 - 4/14/2007
4/1/2007 - 4/7/2007
3/25/2007 - 3/31/2007
3/18/2007 - 3/24/2007
3/11/2007 - 3/17/2007
3/4/2007 - 3/10/2007
2/25/2007 - 3/3/2007
2/18/2007 - 2/24/2007
2/11/2007 - 2/17/2007
2/4/2007 - 2/10/2007
1/28/2007 - 2/3/2007
1/21/2007 - 1/27/2007
1/14/2007 - 1/20/2007
1/7/2007 - 1/13/2007
12/31/2006 - 1/6/2007
12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006
12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006