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Market Watch
UNDERVALUED

Maurice-Jones Drew (ADP 18) – Speed, power, elusiveness, MJD brings the whole package to the table. Sure, he’s not the starter by name, but he gets all of the goal line work and is a threat as a receiver. He also plays for a team that ran the football the third most times in the NFL last year. And in a division that features the Titans, Colts and Texans – three of the very worst run defenses in football – one can see why they pound the rock. He was given 13 carries inside the 10-yard line last season, and he converted seven of them into touchdowns, ranking second in the NFL with a 53.8 percent conversion rate. He averaged a league-best 5.7 YPC and led all players with at least 200 touches in yards per touch (6.5). In three of the first four weeks of last season, he received three carries or fewer. If you double his second half from last year, you get 1,718 yards and 20 touchdowns – and that was with Fred Taylor, one of the most fragile players of this generation, staying healthy. The Jaguars have a very good defense, and Jones-Drew is one Taylor injury away from becoming a top-three fantasy back. As is, I wouldn’t fault someone for taking him fifth overall. If you draft Jones-Drew in the second round of your fantasy league, I suggest you hire a good lawyer, because you’ll be looking at prison time for that robbery.

Marshawn Lynch (44) – Buffalo can talk committee until they are blue in the face, but they didn’t draft Lynch in the first round to share carries with Anthony Thomas. No one truly gets all of the work, but it’s safe to assume Lynch gets most of it in Buffalo. The fact that he can catch the ball is a big boon to his fantasy value. J.P. Losman got 7.5 YPA during the second half of the 2006 season, and Lee Evans is one of the most dangerous receivers in football and will command constant attention from opposing defenses. The Bills don’t boast an elite line, but it’s an emerging offensive unit – making Lynch a second round pick, not late fourth.

Jerious Norwood (53) – There’s no way around it; Joey Harrington starting at quarterback hurts Norwood’s fantasy value. That said, Warrick Dunn’s preseason injury gives him a further leg up in a competition he was likely already winning, since Bobby Petrino’s new power running game couldn’t be a worse fit for the aging and declining Done, er, Dunn. Norwood isn’t an ideal fit either, but he is explosive, and there’s no way he’s not the starter this season. Norwood might be the fastest running back in all of football, and he’s clearly a superior option at the goal line as well. He averaged an NFL-best 8.7 YPC in the 4th quarter last season, also leading the league in yards per touch (6.62) among players with at least 100 touches. Drafting backs on losing teams is never ideal, but Norwood should be off the board by the middle of round three at the latest.

OVERVALUED

Edgerrin James (19) – Really? Anyone drafting James in the middle of the second round this year either was out of the country for the duration of the 2006 season or starred in “Memento.” I’m all for buying low on bounce back candidates, but James averaged 2.8 YPC during the first eight games last year. Yes, he improved that number to 4.2 over the second half, and the new Arizona coaching regime plans to run more. But the line still isn’t very good, and James is unlikely to get goal line carries. You’re more likely to find me watching “Everybody Loves Raymond” reruns than drafting James this season. That show sucked.

Ahman Green (42) – Gary Kubiak’s system has produced big numbers from running backs in the past, and Green showed up to camp in the proverbial “best shape of his career.” Still, we are talking about a guy who is getting up there in age, is injury-prone and plays for quite possibly the worst team in football. Green averaged fewer than 4.0 YPC in seven of the final eight weeks last year. He’s on the decline, so do yourself a favor and make better use of a fourth round pick.

Randy Moss (35) – A happy, motivated Moss catching passes from Tom Brady certainly does sound enticing. But all these muscle injuries with his legs are a major concern moving forward. It’s not like Moss has ever gone over the middle, so if his speed isn’t there, he’s not much of a wide receiver away from the goal line. Clearly, there’s upside here, but Moss is too risky to be an early third round pick. Receivers with lower ADPs: Javon Walker, Lee Evans, Marques Colston, Andre Johnson and Plaxico Burress – all of whom I’d draft ahead of Moss without second thought.

Posted by Dalton Del Don at 8/10/2007 10:34:00 AM
Comments (6)

Ferris Bueller's Day Off
At least two NFL teams cancelled practice this week to engage in a team-building exercise. Arizona head coach Ken Whisenhunt cut short a morning workout to take his team to the movies, while New Orleans head coach Sean Payton brought his charges to a water park. I think this is great and shows that the game should be fun, even for multi-millionaires. I have no problem with players and coaches taking a brief respite from the grueling training camp schedule. It's easy to burn out in the NFL, especially in the August heat with no one to hit but your teammates.

Whisenhunt has made a particular effort to vary the routine, scheduling practices at different times each day, including under the lights. During spring minicamps, he cancelled one session in favor of a group bowling trip. I wish more high school teams would take after these pros and keep the game fun. Skipping one practice can produce a lot more good than bad. Just don't tell that to Saints linebacker Scott Fujita, who came back from the water park on crutches after sustaining a foot injury.

Posted by Ted Rossman at 8/9/2007 8:59:00 AM

Comments (4)

Market Watch
Since the terms sleeper and bust have pretty much become irrelevant at this point, I think a better description is undervalued and overvalued. And if early draft returns are any indication, the following players fall directly into those categories:

UNDERVALUED

Vince Young – Typically going in rounds 7-10, Young might pay bigger returns than any fantasy player this season. Over the second half of last year, Young got 6.9 YPA and ran for 415 yards and five touchdowns. In fantasy football, his legs make him gold. I’ve often heard him referred to as a boom or bust type player from week-to-week, but I couldn’t disagree more. The 40-60 rushing yards essentially make him slump proof and allows for a rather high floor. His ceiling, similarly, is sky-high. Young is an injury risk while running so much, and his teammates aren’t great, but the best fantasy QBs often play for poor real life teams. While Tom Brady will be methodically protecting second half leads week after week, Young will be compensating for a porous defense by constantly throwing after halftime, which will also lead to more rushing yards. Quarterbacks make wide receivers and not vice versa, so don’t overrate the fact that you can’t name Tennessee’s wideouts. He’s also the team’s best goal line option. Young is ranked No. 3 on my QB board.

Reggie Brown – With an average draft position (ADP) of 55, Brown is simply going too late in fantasy leagues. Sure, the Eagles typically spread the wealth, but the team calls more pass plays than any other unit in football. With Donte Stallworth out of town, Brown becomes the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver. Donovan McNabb is an injury risk, but all indications point to him being fully recovered from last year’s knee injury. Brown is entering the magical third-year in the league and averaged a sparkling 17.7 YPC last season. The fact Hines Ward is typically being drafted ahead of him is Gary Busey insane.

Calvin Johnson – Believe the hype. Johnson has the right head on his shoulders and physical tools to break the typical rule of rookie WRs struggling out of the gate. He has to share looks with Roy Williams, and Jon Kitna isn’t the ideal QB throwing him passes, but Mike Martz is an offensive genius, and the Lions called the fewest run plays of any team in football last season. Johnson is explosive and has tremendous hands; it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he turns in a similar rookie campaign as Randy Moss’ 1998 season. Chris Chambers, who had the worst season a wide receiver has ever had in the history of the NFL in 2006, currently sports a higher ADP.

OVERVALUED

Shaun Alexander – Alexander has virtually no competition for touches in Seattle’s backfield and plays in a fairly weak division against the run. However, there’s not a whole lot else to like here. He’ll be 30 years old when the season starts, and the Seahawks’ offense is officially in decline. Their lack of big named receivers isn’t a huge concern, but the offensive line play is. Walter Jones fell off dramatically last year, and Seattle fans will have to hope it was just due to injury, and he comes back healthy and back in his prime this year. The loss of Steve Hutchinson certainly didn’t help matters, and Alexander offers zero as a pass catcher (50 catches combined over the past three years). The biggest worry of all, however, is Alexander himself. If you take away one Monday night game against Green Bay, he averaged a pathetic 3.28 YPC – the worst in the league for backs reaching the minimum amount. He’s also been worked extremely hard over his career, including last season’s 403-carry pace when he was on the field. I’m fine with Alexander as a late first round pick, but his current 4.95 ADP is off. At minimum, Joseph Addai and Willie Parker have to go ahead of him.

Jamal Lewis – This one is too easy, but the numbers indicate Lewis is once again being overvalued, with an ADP of 46. If you are spending a fourth round pick on a guy who hasn’t averaged more than 3.6 YPC since 2004 and doesn’t catch the football, something is amiss. He’ll now take his indecisive running and happy feet to an inferior team in Cleveland, where he won’t have the luxury of playing with one of the game’s finest defenses like he did in Baltimore. I wouldn’t draft Lewis in the first 10 rounds in fantasy leagues.

Deion Branch – In theory, Branch looks good. Seattle is typically a high-powered offense with a strong QB at the helm and Darrell Jackson jettisoned. However, the game isn’t played on paper, and Branch is getting drafted way too early as a fifth-sixth round pick. He’s not fast nor big and is a poor red zone option; maybe Seattle will stop trying to make him a deep threat and utilize his biggest strength, which are underneath routes, but D.J. Hackett is Seattle’s best wide receiver. Branch will get plenty of looks, but the Super Bowl MVP continues to cast an overrated cloud over this thoroughly average receiver.

Posted by Dalton Del Don at 8/7/2007 9:53:00 AM
Comments (10)

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10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006