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Deep Sleepers
Having just done several drafts, here's a list of deep (and I mean deep) sleepers. Think 14-team league with 16 rounds. My strategy when you draft before the preseason games start is to take as many reserve RBs as possible.

Don't draft backup QBs, Ks or any other positions, except maybe WR. You can ALWAYS get a reserve QB, TE, K or team defense (or IDPs) in free agency, especially right before the season starts or in the first two weeks. There are always injuries that happen that make stop-gap players available there for bye weeks. Don't take those as reserve in your draft. You should focus on lottery picks so that if someone like a Tiki Barber goes down in the preseason, you score big. Names to take here include: Maroney, Mike Bell, Ron Dayne, Marion Barber, Antwoin Smith, Brandon Jacobs, Justin Fargas, Michael Pittman ... the usual backups.

After they're gone, here are some high-risk, high-reward sleepers to take in no particular order:

Wali Lundy (HOU) RB - A stud in college, but injury prone. If Domanick Davis's knee injury doesn't get better, he could have a lot of upside.

Doug Gabriel (OAK) - Could luck into playing time if Porter is traded and Ronald Curry is still gimpy.

Ciatrick Fason (MIN) - Remember Correll Buckhalter's goal-line success under Brad Childress in Philly?

Maurice Drew (JAC) - The Jaguars backfield is wide open and he was a stud at UCLA.

Who do you think also fits this mold?

Posted by Peter Schoenke at 8/9/2006 11:17:00 AM

Comments (6)

Over-rated and going too early in drafts...
There are many players who will outperform their draft position this season as it happens every year but there are also those players who get drafted early because of their previous seasons numbers and end up really hurting fantasy owners. Last year there were players like Deuce McAllister, Jamal Lewis, Priest Holmes, Randy Moss, Julius Jones and Kevin Jones who all went in the first two rounds of most fantasy drafts and ended up disappointing. Let me know what you think of this list. Steve Smith - Smith had a magnificent 2005 season that cannot be overlooked. He had 103 receptions for 1563 yards and 12 touchdowns. He was the focal point of the Panthers offense and Jake Delhomme looked in his direction early and often. Smith hurt his hamstring early in camp and the injury isn't believed to be serious but it is something to keep an eye on. Hamstring injuries tend to linger and speed is the most important part Smith's game. The Panthers brought in Keyshawn Johnson as the second receiver and will definitely take some looks away from Smith. Some "experts" will tell you this can only help Smith because defenses will now have to worry about Keyshawn as well, but don't buy into it. The other receivers were virtually non-existent last season so Delhomme had no choice but to force the ball to Smith. Smith will lose targets, receptions and maybe even a couple touchdowns because of it. In some leagues, Smith will go at the end of the first round and most likely early in the second. Why not let someone else take that risk while you can take someone more reliable and who has consistently put up numbers over the past couple of years like Torry Holt or Chad Johnson? Domanick Davis - The Texans made a crucial mistake taking Mario Williams instead of Reggie Bush. Dom Davis has not been able to stay healthy over the course of a 16-game season. Heading into this season, he is already experiencing pain and swelling in his surgically-repaired knee. How can a player stay healthy throughout a season if he can't even stay healthy while siting out in the off-season? Davis has shown everyone that he has the skills to be a number one back in the NFL but not the durability. His stock is slowly falling. Before the news of his knee, he was being taken on average in the second round of fantasy drafts but has now slipped into the third round and in some leagues even the fourth. I would be surprised if he played 12 games over the course of the season. Let someone else get burned by him. Santana Moss - Moss was another wide receiver who surprised everyone with his dominant play. He likely went in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts last season and is now being taken in the third or fourth round on average. There are a number of reasons to stay away from him this season unless you get him late. Moss had a huge first half of the season but really tailed off down the stretch as opposing teams knew what to expect and focused on stopping him. The Redskins signed Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randle El in the off-season. They brought in Al Saunders from Kansas City to boost the running game. And Mark Brunell is another year older. Maybe you could make a case to take Moss in the fourth round of your draft but I would prefer to land guys like Roy Williams, Donald Driver or Chris Chambers just after Moss.

Posted by Cat at 8/7/2006 10:17:00 AM
Comments (4)

Insanity
I'm participating this year in what I've unofficially dubbed the Craziest Fantasy League in the History of the World Ever and Then Some.

The main reason it earns its title is our roster construction. There are 16 owners, and we each need to draft the following, all of whom (except for the benchies) will start every week:

2 QBs; 3 RBs; 5 WRs; 2 TEs; 2 RB/WR; 2 WR/TE; 2 K, 2 DEF; 10 Bench

Yup, between us we will be drafting every starting QB, K, and DEF in the NFL, plus every half-decent backup we can get our hands on. If any intrepid owner decides to snag a third starting QB as a bye week sub, mass hysteria will probably ensue. (I have my eye on Philip Rivers for just that purpose.)

On top of that though, we're doing the draft online on a message board. Which is great for trash talking, but also means -- due to our various schedules -- that we're crawling along at about 12-14 picks a day right now. The later rounds should be hysterical, as we scramble for any warm body we can find who might actually contribute something. If a starter at any position actually goes down late in camp, the dynamic between how close your next pick is and how quickly the news is spreading would probably be thesis-worthy.

At any rate, I'm doing OK through my first four picks. From the #9 slot, I grabbed Ronnie Brown (#9), Chad Johnson (#24), Donovan McNabb (#41) and Deuce McAllister (#56). The talent level among the other owners is good, but four of the sixteen teams have already hurt themselves by clumping their bye weeks (two have their first three picks all off for Week 3, while two others have three of their first four picks out for Week 6), and ringing up an all-but-automatic loss before the season even begins. Unless they manage to play each other those weeks.

The craziest picks in this crazy draft have all been centered around the Chiefs so far -- Trent Green in Round 2 (#30 overall) and Eddie Kennison in Round 4 (#55) with players like Donald Driver, Andre Johnson and Lee Evans still on the board. Two different owners too.

13 picks to go until I'm next on the clock... plenty of time to get a family reunion out of the way, and maybe read Ulysses too while I ponder who to take. Ah, the joys of summer.

Posted by Erik Siegrist at 8/6/2006 5:26:00 AM

Comments (3)

Shell Game
As the Raiders beat writer, it seems appropriate to go on record with a prediction for the 2006 season. So here it is ... 9-7, no playoff spot.

9-7 feels like a bold statement, and not just because they went 4-12 last year and had a decent shot at landing the #1 pick until late in the season. There is also the fact that they play in the mighty AFC, which features no less than nine teams that look like legit playoff squads. There is the fact that the AFC West in particular looks like a monster, with Denver, San Diego, and KC all teams capable of winning 10 or more games. Finally, there is the fact that they have a coach implementing an archaic system, two egotistical receivers that tend to make T.O. look stable and cooperative, a quarterback that the Saints didn't want (let that sink in for a minute), and a defense coming off a record-setting season for futility where interceptions are concerned (they picked off a whopping five).

So why, despite all that, am I forecasting a record better than .500? Am I insane? Am I drinking the Al Davis Kool-Aid?

Before you answer, allow me to forward my own possible solutions to this riddle:

1. To quote the annoying teenyboppers populating malls, movie theatres, and Maroon 5 concerts, the problem might be one of "TMI." That's right, too much information. Every day I read five different Bay Area newspapers in search of tidbits like "Ronald Curry was able to get out of his car without snapping his Achilles tendon today," and when you do that, you tend to get some of the fluff pieces as well. And I have to tell you, these Raiders beat writers are an optimistic bunch. They LOVE Art Shell. They LOVE rookies Thomas Howard and Michael Huff. They LOVE the assistant coaches, the practice facility, and Jerry Porter's belt. I'm telling you, these people are buying what Al Davis and Art Shell are selling. And after a while, I started to believe them. You read enough, "Aaron Brooks is picking up the playbook at an alarming rate!" stories and you start to think these guys are pretty great. Throw in the fact that I am universally ignoring the same over-indulgent stories about every other team and you can see why I might have blinders on.

2. The other factor is a better attempt at intelligent thinking (and less about being persuaded by propaganda) but a bigger stretch: I really believe that this Raiders team has a "the sum is better than the individual parts" feel to it. Shellís schemes might be outdated, but I think Oakland will play hard and cut down on mistakes. The defense is young, but they have more playmakers now. There are plenty of skill position players that will make each other better, most notably Brooks and Moss, who may be able to tap into some of the things that made Culpepper and Moss so tough in Minnesota. Brooks needs a big time downfield threat and he has that in Moss, and Moss needs a mobile quarterback that can buy time for routes that go long (both in distance and in time) and he has that in Brooks. I think they can make it work. I think this whole roster can make it work, despite ample evidence to the contrary.

Overall, I just get a good vibe from this Raiders team. The question is which of the aforementioned reasons turns out to be real reason why this is the case. Do I like Oakland because they are going to be this yearís young, unexpected team that puts it all together, or do I like Oakland simply because I am too close to it all now and canít see the forest for the trees? Stay tuned.



Posted by A Hoff at 8/6/2006 12:15:00 AM

Comments (3)

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7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006