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Saints Marching Back?
Does anyone else think the Saints can still take the NFL South? The Bucs have a major injury, the Panthers have their own issues, and the Falcons may struggle all season. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but they seem to have most of the same coaching/personnel as last season, and with a tough part of the schedule out of the way maybe they can rally. Sean Payton seems to be pretty brilliant at times, and maybe the bye week gives him just enough time to get that offense rolling again. We've also been hearing everything Reggie Bush can't do on the field, but what about all the things he can do? He won't be Joseph Addai, but I'd consider buying him low with that bigger role. Anyway, not saying it'll happen, but maybe the Saints will bounce back and take their division.

Posted by SHOE at 10/5/2007 12:39:00 PM
Comments (2)

Travis Henry availability
Does anyone with knowledge of the NFL CBA know what will happen should Henry lose his challenge to the NFL in testing his "B" urine sample for drug use? Does he face the one-year suspension effective immediately (I would suspect he does)? If so, if they have a choice, should Henry owners insure themselves with Selvin Young or Mike Bell?

Posted by Bret Cohen at 10/5/2007 11:37:00 AM
Comments (6)

How To Get It Wrong
There's a simple recipe for screwing up your fantasy team. It's one part poor information, one part rash descisions, and a sprinkle of panic.

More than any other year in recent memory, the first quarter of the season has been filled with fantasy-significant injuries. (Yes, I know the season is 17 weeks, but go with it ...) If you drafted well or drafted poorly, you could be in first or last -- either way. While pundits bemoaned having a late round pick, it turns out that this season wasn't as automatic as picking LaDanian Tomlinson. In 2006, the top three backs picked in almost every league were Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, and Larry Johnson. You know which one tanked.

In 2007, the three by-acclimation RBs were Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, and Frank Gore. So far, two of those haven't been worth the pick. While it's agreed that three of the top ten running backs will be busts due to injury or ineffectiveness, the degree of uncertainty seems far higher this season. In addition to those top three, the rest of the top ten -- Larry "370" Johnson, Joseph Addai, Laurence Maroney, Willie Parker, Shaun Alexander, Brian Westbrook, and Rudi Johnson -- has seen only ONE come out of Week 4 healthy and effective.

So by the book drafting left most with about a 50-50 proposition rather than the 70% shot we normally expect. Is that wrong or are we just missing on who the "right" top ten should be? I'm willing to wager that Ronnie Brown won't be the top RB at the end of the season, but not that he won't be in the top ten. Willis McGahee? Edgerrin James? Again, we saw the signs that this was a deep, deep class of running backs, all the way down to the 20s, but the point distribution looks the same as normal. Brown has scored 79 points according to ESPN standard rules, while Larry Johnson (at #21), has less than half of Brown's production with just 34 points.

It's more interesting to note that the top twelve fantasy QBs are more point-stable than the top 24 fantasy RBs. QBs are actually very comparable, point to point, if you go 24 deep, something that's not normal. WRs are also point-comparable and even TEs haven't been bad buys, with the top tier being as good as mid-tier RBs.

The lesson is two-fold. If the season ended today, we would have all had far too RB-heavy a draft strategy, but over the course of the season, we're likely to see the RB bias born out. In other words, after all we've seen in the first four weeks, one strategy still gets it right: use better information to make better decisions.



Posted by Will Carroll at 10/4/2007 9:02:00 AM

Comments (3)

NFL Notes
For those of you counting at home, that’s three straight impressive efforts from Joey Harrington. Despite a 1-3 record, I’m convinced Bobby Petrino can be a successful NFL head coach…Roddy White didn’t put up eye-popping stats Sunday, but he continued to be targeted and pulled in a terrific 34-yard catch. He’s going to be a solid WR3 from here on out…DeMeco Ryans might be the NFL’s best kept secret.

If you missed the first half of the Jets/Bills tilt, consider yourself lucky…Chad Pennington throws a pretty fade route, but the windy New York does no favors to his weak arm…Finally, the Jets have made a conscious effort to get Leon Washington involved…Trent Edwards had about as good of a first NFL start as one can hope for, and it looks like Lee Evans’ fantasy value isn’t dead after all.

R.I.P., vaunted Baltimore Ravens defense…Braylon Edwards is the NFL’s next superstar at wideout…The same could be said about Kellen Winslow at tight end…Derek Anderson is currently getting 8.3 YPA.

I already have the October 14 Dallas vs. New England game circled on my calendar…Don’t look now, but the Cowboys defense has really improved with each passing game…Jason Witten has to be treated like the third best fantasy tight end from this point forward…I want to have Tony Romo’s children…The numbers don’t show it, but Brian Leonard looked like he’ll be a more than capable fill-in; if only the once potent Rams offense didn’t look like the worst in the league.

Call me crazy, but I’m not kicking the ball to Devin Hester…I want to give Brian Griese more than one start before rushing to judgment, but Chicago’s offense appears to be in big trouble this season…And part of the problem is Cedric Benson, who is simply a poor excuse for an NFL running back…Kevin Jones might not be a terrible buy-low guy right now.

Let me offer a personal apology to Raider fans: I’m sorry, this team is probably winning more than the 2-3 games I expected…There will never be a better fantasy game from a quarterback who threw for only 72 yards than Daunte Culpepper’s effort Sunday…I’m beginning to think Miami’s run defense just isn’t very good…If a fantasy draft were held today, I’m making Ronnie Brown a top-10 pick.

Quick, try to name the Vikings’ starting wide receivers…Certainly not from a fantasy standpoint – Brad Childress would have none of that – but Adrian Peterson right now is a top-5 NFL running back when on the field…Take a look at the NFC North standings. Can you say bizarro world?

The Carnell Williams injury was brutal – one of those where you just knew it was season-ending the moment it happened…If there’s someone in your league who still values DeAngelo Williams’ upside, go ahead and deal him for 75 cents on the dollar…This just in: David Carr is not a very good NFL quarterback…And to think, I almost had Ike Hilliard in my lineup…There hasn’t been a more overrated team over the past few years than the Carolina Panthers

Thank God I turned down 49er tickets this week – I became a worse football player just watching Trent Dilfer play the position Sunday…Gutsy call by Mike Nolan to start the second half with an onside kick. Too bad Dilfer spoiled it with a back-breaking INT immediately afterward – Remember, this guy has a Super Bowl ring…Somebody please get a body bag for Shaun Alexander...Is there anyone out there who actually enjoys Tony Siragusa as a commentator?

It’s official – teams with former coaches have an advantage when playing their previous employer…The Matt Leinart, Kurt Warner QB carousel means neither can be used in fantasy leagues…It’s time to stop considering a matchup with Arizona a good one for your fantasy players.

If Selvin Young is available in your fantasy league stop reading this and go change that immediately…As long as he’s healthy, Dallas Clark is a top-5 fantasy tight end…Can’t wait to see what Reggie Wayne does if Marvin Harrison misses some time.

Norv Turner is getting most of the blame, but the Wade Phillips to Ted Cottrell coaching switch on the defensive side of the ball might be the bigger and more important downgrade that was made over the offseason…I’m jealous of anyone who owns Antonio Gates in a fantasy league…Dwayne Bowe is an absolute beast. With every ridiculous play after the catch he makes, I’m less optimistic about JaMarcus Russell’s NFL future…This Kansas City defense is legit.

Osi Umenyiora might as well have been at an amusement park last night, as Winston Justice was a human turnstile. 12 sacks is a pretty good way to combat a subpar secondary…There probably isn’t a bigger high-risk, high-reward fantasy player than Brian Westbrook…If there’s a better red zone target than Plaxico Burress, I can’t think of one…Should be interesting to see what the Giants do with Brandon Jacobs back in the mix. Derrick Ward was awfully good in his stead.

Posted by Dalton Del Don at 10/1/2007 1:22:00 PM
Comments (5)

Romo Wasn't Built In a Day
Given how much of a copycat league the NFL has become, you have to wonder if other clubs will be patient enough to try and develop their very own Tony Romo's.

Romo sat on the practice squad, or held a clipboard on the sidelines, for three seasons before he got his first chance under center last season. Now that he's been given that chance, though, he's exploded -- Romo has 14 NFL starts, and has exceeded a 100 passer rating in *eight* of them. He's got a sick yards/pass attempt of 8.96 for his young career. And through four games in 2007, the Cowboys are not only the highest-scoring team in the NFL, they are the fourth-highest scoring team in the NFL's post-merger history. (Oh, and by the way, two of the three teams ahead of them on that list -- the '92 Bills and the '02 Raiders -- went to the Super Bowl).

Romo didn't exactly seem unusual coming out of college either. He played well at a small school (Eastern Illinois) and clearly had physical gifts, but he was also raw in the skills department and needed time to polish his game. There seems to be a handful of QBs like that in every draft class. Three years is an eternity in NFL terms, though, especially for a high-profile position like QB, and Romo also had some highly-qualified tutors along the way such as Bill Parcells and Drew Bledsoe. It's possible that the conditions that produced Romo were perfect in Dallas, and where they got a diamond other organizations who give the process a try will get only graphite. ('Train' Rex Grossman's career, for instance, has some similarities to Romo's, in terms of how long it took him to get a shot at the starting job.)

Still, looking around the NFL, there are plenty of clubs with question marks at QB either right now or coming in the very near future (Chicago, obviously; Green Bay if Favre finally retires; Kansas City; Miami; etc.) And then there are forward-thinking orgzanizations who have no need at QB, but might consider a three-year Romo plan just to give them another marketable asset (the Patriots, for instance, or the Colts; who better to apprentice the next Romo under than Brady or Peyton?)

What have any of those teams got to lose by stashing a project QB on the practice squad, and fully committing to give that project the time it needs to produce results?

Posted by Erik Siegrist at 10/1/2007 11:31:00 AM

Comments (3)

Sunday Live Blogging
I'm going to post here over the course of the day with observations seen from Week 4 action. Once again, we had a case of an "unreviewable call" hurting a team from getting the right call. Jon Kitna clearly fumbled on a first quarter sack by the Bears, but because he was already ruled down, the Lions retained possession and kick a field goal. We'll see if that comes back to haunt them.

Posted by Jeff Erickson at 9/30/2007 10:16:00 AM
Comments (18)

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4/22/2007 - 4/28/2007
4/15/2007 - 4/21/2007
4/8/2007 - 4/14/2007
4/1/2007 - 4/7/2007
3/25/2007 - 3/31/2007
3/18/2007 - 3/24/2007
3/11/2007 - 3/17/2007
3/4/2007 - 3/10/2007
2/25/2007 - 3/3/2007
2/18/2007 - 2/24/2007
2/11/2007 - 2/17/2007
2/4/2007 - 2/10/2007
1/28/2007 - 2/3/2007
1/21/2007 - 1/27/2007
1/14/2007 - 1/20/2007
1/7/2007 - 1/13/2007
12/31/2006 - 1/6/2007
12/24/2006 - 12/30/2006
12/17/2006 - 12/23/2006
12/10/2006 - 12/16/2006
12/3/2006 - 12/9/2006
11/26/2006 - 12/2/2006
11/19/2006 - 11/25/2006
11/12/2006 - 11/18/2006
11/5/2006 - 11/11/2006
10/29/2006 - 11/4/2006
10/22/2006 - 10/28/2006
10/15/2006 - 10/21/2006
10/8/2006 - 10/14/2006
10/1/2006 - 10/7/2006
9/24/2006 - 9/30/2006
9/17/2006 - 9/23/2006
9/10/2006 - 9/16/2006
9/3/2006 - 9/9/2006
8/27/2006 - 9/2/2006
8/20/2006 - 8/26/2006
8/13/2006 - 8/19/2006
8/6/2006 - 8/12/2006
7/30/2006 - 8/5/2006
7/23/2006 - 7/29/2006
7/16/2006 - 7/22/2006
7/9/2006 - 7/15/2006
7/2/2006 - 7/8/2006
6/25/2006 - 7/1/2006
6/18/2006 - 6/24/2006
6/11/2006 - 6/17/2006
6/4/2006 - 6/10/2006
5/28/2006 - 6/3/2006
5/21/2006 - 5/27/2006
5/14/2006 - 5/20/2006
5/7/2006 - 5/13/2006
4/30/2006 - 5/6/2006
4/23/2006 - 4/29/2006
4/16/2006 - 4/22/2006
4/9/2006 - 4/15/2006
4/2/2006 - 4/8/2006
3/26/2006 - 4/1/2006
3/19/2006 - 3/25/2006
3/12/2006 - 3/18/2006
3/5/2006 - 3/11/2006
2/26/2006 - 3/4/2006
2/19/2006 - 2/25/2006
2/12/2006 - 2/18/2006
2/5/2006 - 2/11/2006
1/29/2006 - 2/4/2006
1/22/2006 - 1/28/2006
1/15/2006 - 1/21/2006
1/8/2006 - 1/14/2006
1/1/2006 - 1/7/2006