In the end I'm infatuated with picking early – way early actually – when the odds are at their most rotund. Can you see me licking my chops just thinking about it? This is the very obsession that drives my drafting fantasy teams so early too; only it actually pays off in that realm. So maybe I'm that dork who dominates Dungeons & Dragons in the basement but mistakenly tries to parlay that into a fireball spell aimed at the schoolyard bully because my friend wasn't there to stop me. Hey, I'm okay with it. All I know is that
In the end I'm infatuated with picking early – way early actually – when the odds are at their most rotund. Can you see me licking my chops just thinking about it? This is the very obsession that drives my drafting fantasy teams so early too; only it actually pays off in that realm. So maybe I'm that dork who dominates Dungeons & Dragons in the basement but mistakenly tries to parlay that into a fireball spell aimed at the schoolyard bully because my friend wasn't there to stop me. Hey, I'm okay with it. All I know is that when it comes to fantasy football, it works. I literally scout the leagues that open up the absolute earliest, which also usually happen to be money leagues. That, of course, makes it all the more enticing for a fiend like me. I like the fact that everyone is working on gut feeling and raw research at that point and not some preseason explosion…be it touchdowns or crucial ligaments. What can I say? I'm obsessed with rolling the dice, and you can't be obsessed without obsessing. Right now I happened to be obsessing over my receiver picks for the upcoming year.
I guess it's because it feels like a big shakeup at the top. I tend to ignore the expert rankings and just target a few guys that I like and then determine the stage in a draft I'd be willing to take them, so here's my top five.
Andre Johnson: Is he the undisputed king of receivers this year, finally? You bet. With Fitzgerald in limbo, Andre's the giant. If Weird Science had featured two nerdy fantasy footballers instead of those prototypical horn-dog eighties boys, Andre Johnson would've emerged from that computer and not Kelly LeBrock. He's flawless – no drama; no mouth; big, talented hands; and enough touchdowns to couple those big yardage totals and sky-high targets on cold nights…which Houston doesn't really have but you know what I mean.
Matt Schaub is going to throw the ball, and then he's going to throw the ball… and then he's going to drop back and throw the ball. Andre is the no-brainer in this class. Now, what about the contract situation? All the important stuff will be worked out before you spin the wheel so what are you worried about? I seriously doubt he's going to hold out, but if this thing suddenly gets ugly, you simply draft accordingly. Hopefully the Texans pay him some of that old oil money and we can all move on.
Larry Fitzgerald: Speaking of infinite talent and a closed mouth, I'm a huge Fitzgerald fan. I mean, who isn't? When Kurt Warner emerged as the guy throwing him all those touchdowns I became a smitten teenage girl, and Kurt & Larry were my new favorite boy band. "Oooh, Kurt's the sensitive one!"
I can't even remember the last time I didn't spend my second pick on Fitzy. Once I used my No. 1 pick on the receiver, admittedly, but you do what's necessary to get who you want. This was no ordinary receiver either. This was the second coming of the San Francisco treat. You simply couldn't go wrong. Of course that was then and this is now. Warner rode off into the Arizona sunset and with him went Fitzgerald's certainty. This year it's anybody's guess. I find myself rooting for Derek Anderson to win the job in Arizona, only I really don't care. Larry is Larry, plain and simple. He's far too talented to leave out there, and I for one refuse to do it. Sure, they're going to run it more in the desert this year, and Lefty McUseless might end up at QB for a while, but again, I don't care. This is Larry Fitzgerald, people.
Brandon Marshall: Marshall is a stud, like Rutger Hauer's horse in Ladyhawke kind of a stud. Think T.O. in his prime with better hands. I'm thinking high yardage and targets more than touchdowns for 2010 because these are the Dolphins, but I can't resist. Marshall is that kind of a talent, and new team or not – to put it plainly – he could surpass being a mere Dolphin and emerge as the fabled "Sparkling Celestial Dream-Porpoise," and that'd be special.
It's true the division he now plays in places an emphasis on defense, but with a running game like they have in Miami and an emerging big-arm QB, I won't be the only one rolling the dice on him. There's a little concern that he's had another surgery, but not enough to back off. As long as there's ample video of him running and catching in camp with a big smile on his face, it's Marshall Law in Miami.
Calvin Johnson: I don't look like the crypt keeper (you'll just have to take my word on that). I have decent pronunciation and I can breathe with my mouth closed, but I may be more like Al Davis than I previously thought…I'm willing to give Calvin Johnson another shot this year based on raw, freakish measurable potential and not much more. But I swear to the Matt Millen in the sky, if he gets hurt again this year without so much as getting touched, I'm done with him forever. He's got a QB, some help at receiver, and a stud tight end with a new scat-back…I want to see some touchdowns!
Don't call me a sucker for drafting in Detroit either, because many of you laughing right now were so convinced you drafted this guy in his rookie season. It's more than possible that he won't be the most talented receiver ever to emerge from Georgia Tech when it's all said and done, but I'm not thinking about Demaryius Thomas just yet. The big-boy in Motown with the sticky hands and the quick feet better emerge this year or he could get left out – not Mike Williams or Charles Rogers left out, but a bust in his own right all things considered.
Anquan Boldin: The Brandon Marshall theory applies here too: his team likes to run, but when they throw, it's likely going to this guy. The similarities don't end there either. Anquan will enjoy a young QB who can chuck it and a defense to get him back on the field quickly. He's a bruiser too, a real tough guy, and with that badass Raven on his helmet he looks even more intimidating. He should've just left his jaw wired shut and said nothing, stared at people, and flashed his mouth full of metal like that guy in the James Bond movie. Will he be as effective without Fitzgeraled shouldering the emphasis? Why not? What are the other options here?You could take Rowdy-Roddy White, or Sidney Rice, or Reggie Wayne, but Roddy always finds a way to let you down (mostly with drops) and Sidney has one good year under his belt as a sample size. As for Reggie, Manning will seemingly throw it to a seventh-round tackle if need be, so targets can be inconsistent; you need a guy you can count on no matter who's at QB and who's on the field lined up with him. Anquan is simply one of those guys.
Sleeper pick of the season? It seems the only thing that can ruin a good sleeper pick is when you inevitably wake up. Still, no fantasy football pulp would be complete without at least one, and here's the guy I'm keeping an eye on most.
Roy Williams: With the emergance of Miles Austin, the already present Jason Witten situation and now Dez Bryant, it's easy to forget about Roy "The Receiver" Williams. This year could actually be different though. You have to pay attention to what teammates are saying, and despite the constant brooding, you have to listen to what he's saying too. Ego will provoke the mouth but at times, but it will also inspire a little elbow work, and hopefully it produces some grease. It reminds me of Ocho Cinco last year; everyone thought the talk of how good he would be was the usual verbal stroking, but if you looked at how he was preparing and what people close to the situation were saying, Chad was a value pick, and for me it paid off. Draft him just like that, a No. 3 that could end up being a nice No. 2. Boil it down: does he have enough talent to warrant potential? Are people likely to shove him aside for someone else? If so, take that chance…nobody has egos like receivers, and he could easily become relevant again.
