Staff Picks: Lions, Chiefs, Texans and Rams

After an 8-6 week, Pianowski reclaimed first place over Stopa, but the top four writers (everyone but me) are all pretty close - within four games. We have four consensus picks: Lions, Chiefs, Texans and Rams.

Enjoy the games.

	Erickson	Pianowski	Liss	Stopa	Del Don
Bears +1.5 at Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Bears	Dolphins
Bills +5.5 at Bengals	Bills	Bills	Bengals	Bills	Bengals
Lions +7 at Cowboys	Lions	Lions	Lions	Lions	Lions
Cardinals +7.5 at Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs
Texans +7 at Jets	Texans	Texans	Texans	Texans	Texans
Browns +1 at Jaguars	Browns	Jaguars	Jaguars	Browns	Browns
Raiders +7.5 at Steelers	Raiders	Steelers	Raiders	Steelers	Steelers
Ravens -10 at Panthers	Ravens	Panthers	Panthers	Ravens	Ravens
Packers -3 at Vikings	Vikings	Packers	Vikings	Packers	Packers
Redskins +6 at Titans	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Redskins	Titans
Falcons -3 at Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams	Rams
Buccaneers +3 at 49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers	Buccaneers	49ers
Seahawks +12 at Saints	Saints	Seahawks	Seahawks	Saints	Saints
Colts +4 at Patriots	Patriots	Colts	Colts	Colts	Colts
Giants +3 at Eagles	Giants	Giants	Eagles	Giants	Giants
Broncos +10 at Chargers	Chargers	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos	Broncos
Best Bet	Rams	Colts	Lions	Packers	Chiefs
Last Week's Record	8-6	8-6	7-7	5-9	8-6
2010 Record	74-65-5	76-63-5	67-72-5	75-64-5	72-67-5
Best Bet Record	3-6-1	4-5-1	5-5	6-3-1	5-4-1
Consensus Pick Record	22-13-1
2009 Record	123-130-3	132-121-3	131-122-3	130-123-3	126-127-3
2008 Record	132-114-10	128-118-10	124-122-10	125-121-10	130-116-10
2007 Record	127-120	118-129	127-120	N/A	130-117
2006 Record	118-129	N/A	139-108	N/A	N/A
2005 Record	121-126	N/A	127-120	N/A	N/A
2004 Record	124-124	N/A	130-118	N/A	N/A
2003 Record	121-126	118-129	124-123	N/A	N/A
2002 Record	113-136	123-126	141-108	N/A	N/A
2001 Record	124-113	117-120	118-119	N/A	N/A
2000 Record	123-117	134-106	141-99	N/A	N/A

Consensus Picks

This week we have four consensus picks: the Lions, Chiefs, Texans and Rams.

Last week we went 1-1 on consensus picks, putting us at 22-13-1 on the year. We finished 2009 at 19-23-1 on consensus picks, and were 24-19-2 on them in 2008.

Comments:

Writer	Comment
Erickson	Both the Rams and the Falcons are vastly different teams home and on the road... I'm not backing a lot of favorites this week, but strangely I'm backing the favorites with the bigger numbers. ... Went back-and-forth on Ravens/Panthers. On one hand, can Pike really be that much worse than Clausen? On the other hand, Clausen was bad enough.
Pianowski	It's another "go ugly" kind of slate. Not trying to be a hero here, just looking to survive.
Liss	I think the Panthers and Vikings are the obvious contrarian plays, but the Bengals are more subtle. The Lions getting a touchdown against the Cowboys is an amazing thing given that Detroit would have been favored on a neutral field a week ago.
Stopa	I still don't think the Bucs are going to win a playoff game, but in the topsy-turvy, back-and-forth, unpredictable game that is the NFL, the Bucs have become predictable. They're beating all the mediocre and bad teams, losing only to the Steelers, Saints and Falcons. That makes getting three points against a 3-6 Niners squad a nice bet... I know it's the sucker side, but the Vikings are cooked, and it will be a cruel irony that Favre's burial takes place against the Packers. Barring a sudden return of the 2009 version of Sidney Rice, I'll be astounded if the Vikings win that game... The Jaguars are overrated right now, perhaps best shown (cue Salfino) by their net YPA of negative 1.3. The Browns, meanwhile, don't have the record to prove it, but they've played like a playoff team the past month... Brady = Manning, but the rest of the Colts are better than the rest of the Patriots. To illustrate, the Colts allow 6.7 yards per pass, the Patriots 7.6... I don't like having three big favorites (Chiefs, Ravens, and Saints), but the Cardinals and Panthers are the two worst teams in the NFL right now, and it's hard to get a backdoor cover with such bad QB play. The Ravens and Chiefs should bounce back, and the Saints should be focused at home off a bye... I struggled with Lions and Cowboys. I feel like Dallas is the savvy play, but ultimately I couldn't lay that many points with a two-win team that can't run the ball and is starting its backup QB.
Del Don	I can't think of a week with more teaser possibilities ever. I almost went with the 49ers as my best bet but decided to back Kansas City instead. The Chiefs are coming off back-to-back losses, including an embarrassing blowout against the Broncos last week, and they should take care of a bad Cardinals team at home.

The players:

•Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Value Meter. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

•Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

•Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes Beating the Book and Surviving the Week in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

•Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, Writes Working the Wire. Roots for the Bills.

•Dalton Del Don: RotoWire Senior Staff Writer. 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Game Capsules and the Barometer. Covers the Eagles and roots for the 49ers.