Last week, the Pats barely got by, the Chargers, Falcons and Raiders won easily, but the Steelers, Dolphins and Buccaneers went down, probably taking a least a few people with them. Let's take a look at this week's numbers:
|Team|| Opponent|| % Picked|| Vegas ML*|| Vegas Odds
|Eagles ||Vikings ||29.3% ||950 ||90.5%
|Jaguars ||Redskins ||28.7% ||290 ||74.4%
|Steelers ||Panthers ||15.0% ||975 ||90.7%
|Cowboys ||Cardinals ||12.1% ||275 ||73.3%
|Dolphins ||Lions ||2.7% ||165 ||62.3%
|Patriots ||Bills ||2.7% ||360 ||78.3%
|Buccaneers ||Seahawks ||2.2% ||240 ||70.6%
|Rams ||49ers ||1.7% ||130 ||56.5%
|Chargers ||Bengals ||1.6% ||320 ||76.2%
|Chiefs ||Titans ||1.1% ||182.5 ||64.6%
|Texans ||Broncos ||1.0% ||135 ||57.4%
|Other ||N/A ||1.9% ||N/A ||N/A
*average of the two moneylines
Keep in mind this late in the year, you want to check who's available to the remaining teams in your pool, as the above numbers are just averages across a large sample of pools. Moreover, as more owners get eliminated, the sample from which they're drawn shrinks, making it less reliable.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
If the same amount of people had taken the Eagles and Steelers, I'd probably go Philly by a slim margin, due to the Thursday game which creates a little chaos. But that's splitting hairs. I give the Steelers a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
They're the most popular choice, but it's less than 30 percent, so I wouldn't worry too much about odds unless a disproportionate number of people in your pool have them left. And even so, they're such massive favorites you'd probably take them anyway. I give the Eagles a 90 percent chance to win this game.
3. San Diego Chargers
I don't love the Chargers going on the road into a cold weather, smashmouth environment, but they have to win to have a chance, and the Bengals are missing their most explosive player. I give the Chargers a 77 percent chance to win this game.
4. New England Patriots
I could actually see New England dropping this one in Buffalo, but more likely, they'll move the ball at will and pull it out. I give the Patriots a 75 percent chance to win this game.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Seahawks are a bad team, especially on the road, but Tampa did lose at home to Detroit last week. I think the Bucs bounce back and Seattle falls into a three-way tie for first at 6-9. I give the Bucs a 72 percent chance to win this game.
6. Dallas Cowboys
Arizona's one of the league's true doormats, but the Cardinals blew out Denver at home a couple weeks ago, and Dallas with Jon Kitna
is merely an average team. I give the Cowboys a 72 percent chance to win this game.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars should bounce back at home after a tough loss to the Colts. The Redskins played hard last week behind Rex Grossman
, but they usually get up for Dallas, and they'll be traveling for the second straight week. I give the Jaguars a 72 percent chance to win this game.
8. Kansas City Chiefs
The Titans are playing a lot better the last six quarters, but going into Arrowhead and hanging with the Chiefs - now that Matt Cassel
's healthy again - will be a tall order. I give the Chiefs a 66 percent chance to win this game.
9. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are so Jeckyll and Hyde week to week, it's almost impossible to read them. I do like their chances at home coming off a loss, though. I give them a 63 percent chance to win this game.
Anyone not mentioned