Staff Picks: Backing the Bears

Last week we all went 2-2, except DDD who went 1-3. This week, we all like the Bears, and four out of five like the Patriots and Packers. The only 3-2 split was on the Steelers-Ravens, but both Pianowski and I like the Ravens as our best bets.

Enjoy the games.

	Erickson	Pianowski	Liss	Stopa	Del Don
Ravens +3 at Steelers	Steelers	Ravens	Ravens	Ravens	Steelers
Packers +2.5 at Falcons	Packers	Falcons	Packers	Packers	Packers
Seahawks +10 at Bears	Bears	Bears	Bears	Bears	Bears
Jets +9 at Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Patriots	Jets
Best Bet	Packers	Ravens	Ravens	Packers	Bears
Last Week's Record	2-2	2-2	2-2	2-2	1-3
Playoff Best Bet Record	0-1	0-1	1-0	1-0	0-1
2010 Record	129-122-5	134-117-5	126-125-5	136-115-5	134-117-5
Best Bet Record	7-9-1	9-7-1	9-8	10-6-1	11-5-1
Consensus Pick Record	31-21-1
2009 Playoff Record	5-6	4-7	1-10	6-5	5-6
2008 Playoff Record	6-5	5-6	5-6	8-3	4-7
2007 Playoff Record	8-3	3-8	6-5	N/A	2-9
2006 Playoff Record	7-4	N/A	4-7	N/A	N/A
2005 Playoff Record	5-6	N/A	3-8	N/A	N/A
2004 Playoff Record	6-5	N/A	4-7	N/A	N/A
2003 Playoff Record	6-5	N/A	4-7	N/A	N/A
2002 Playoff Record	6-5	7-4	5-6	N/A	N/A
2001 Playoff Record	6-4-1	7-3-1	4-6-1	N/A	N/A
2000 Playoff Record	6-5	7-4	6-5	N/A	N/A
2009 Record	123-130-3	132-121-3	131-122-3	130-123-3	126-127-3
2008 Record	132-114-10	128-118-10	124-122-10	125-121-10	130-116-10
2007 Record	127-120	118-129	127-120	N/A	130-117
2006 Record	118-129	N/A	139-108	N/A	N/A
2005 Record	121-126	N/A	127-120	N/A	N/A
2004 Record	124-124	N/A	130-118	N/A	N/A
2003 Record	121-126	118-129	124-123	N/A	N/A
2002 Record	113-136	123-126	141-108	N/A	N/A
2001 Record	124-113	117-120	118-119	N/A	N/A
2000 Record	123-117	134-106	141-99	N/A	N/A

Consensus Picks

This week we have one consenus pick: the Bears.

Last week we had no consensus picks, keeping us at 31-21-1 on the year. We finished 2009 at 19-23-1 on consensus picks, and were 24-19-2 on them in 2008.

Comments:

Writer	Comment
Erickson	Steelers-Ravens was my toughest pick. Basically, I went with the mindset that whichever team I thought would win would be who I would pick for that game, with a three-point line or less. Even then, it wasn't an easy pull... Mike McCarthy worries me, but I think that the Packers have the better talent than the Falcons... Even though the Seahawks won in Chicago earlier, that was when the Bears were in disarray. They're not now, and I think Seattle reverts back to being a road patsy... Yes, the previous blowout between the Pats and Jets overstates the difference between the two teams, but I'm still a buyer when it comes to the Pats' dominance.
Pianowski	The Steelers and Ravens will present the best argument possible against the 18-game schedule. Grab a bunch of elite athletes and mix passion and dislike; the result will be the most violent game of the year.
Liss	I see the Steelers/Ravens game as 50/50, and the three points are a gift.
Stopa	In recent years, the road team has won more frequently in the divisional round of the playoffs than in years past, but make no mistake - inferior teams get crushed in the divisional round. It's one thing to upset a wild card team; it's quite another to go on the road and beat a dominant team coming off a bye. Last year, for instance, the average margin of victory in the divisional round was 20.5 points. I guess what I'm saying is this - the Seahawks and the Jets - they have no chance. Yes, they beat the Saints and Colts, respectively, but both of those teams were injury-riddled. The Bears and Patriots have no such problems. The Bears defense is arguably the best in the NFL (6.6 YPA, 21 INTs, just 14 passing TDs allowed), and Jay Cutler and Matt Forte have had sneaky-good seasons. The Seahawks will prove this week why all nine of their losses were by 15 or more - they can't play from behind. Bears 31-10. The Jets defense is overrated, and here's the best illustration how - Pats have 25 INTs, Jets just 12. Patriots 34-13... The Steelers are better than the Ravens because of the disparity at the QB position. Flacco was fine last week, but can he carry the offense against an exceptional defense, particularly against the run (3.0 YPC, nobody else under 3.5)? I say no. In a game that should come down to a QB making a play in the fourth quarter, I trust Ben. That said, in a close-to-the-vest divisional rivalry, it wouldn't surprise me to see the Ravens win, and three points matters a lot in what should be a low-scoring game. I have to take the points. Steelers 16-14. My best bet is Green Bay. I don't care that the sharps seem to be on the Falcons - what difference does it make if the line is -1 or -2.5? I trust my eyes and my instincts, and both tell me the Packers are the better team, especially on defense. Packers 27-17.
Del Don	I expect Chicago to roll, but I had a hard time picking the Jets/Pats game. I could easily see another blowout, but it's pretty crazy how much this line changed from when these two teams met just six weeks ago.

The players:

•Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Value Meter. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

•Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

•Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes Beating the Book and Surviving the Week in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

•Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, Writes Working the Wire. 2010 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Bills.

•Dalton Del Don: RotoWire Senior Staff Writer. 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Game Capsules and the Barometer. Covers the Eagles and roots for the 49ers.