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Staff Picks: Broncos, Vikings, Bills, Raiders and Seahawks

Chris Liss

Chris Liss

Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.

Pianow won the week at 10-5, to take a three-game lead at 18-12-2 on the year. No one else is over .500. We have a lot of picks in common this week, including five consensus choices and six instances where the split was 4:1.

Enjoy the games.

Erickson Pianowski Liss Stopa Del Don
Jaguars +3.5 at Panthers Panthers Jaguars Jaguars Jaguars Panthers
Broncos +7 at Titans Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos
Texans +4 at Saints Texans Texans Saints Saints Saints
Lions -3.5 at Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings
Giants +5* at Eagles Giants Giants Giants Eagles Eagles
Patriots -9 at Bills Bills Bills Bills Bills Bills
Dolphins +2 at Browns Browns Browns Browns Dolphins Dolphins
49ers +2.5 at Bengals Bengals Bengals Bengals 49ers Bengals
Jets -3.5 at Raiders Raiders Raiders Raiders Raiders Raiders
Ravens -4 at Rams Ravens Rams Rams Rams Rams
Chiefs +15 at Chargers Chargers Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
Falcons +1 at Buccaneers Falcons Buccaneers Buccaneers Buccaneers Buccaneers
Packers -3.5 at Bears Bears Packers Bears Bears Bears
Cardinals -3.5 at Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks Seahawks
Steelers -11 at Colts Steelers Colts Colts Colts Colts
Redskins +4.5* at Cowboys Cowboys Redskins Redskins Cowboys Cowboys
Best Bet Seahawks Bills Vikings Broncos Bengals
Last Week's Record 9-6-1 10-5-1 6-9-1 6-9-1 6-9-1
2011 Record 15-15-2 18-12-2 14-16-2 15-15-2 13-17-2
Best Bet Record 1-1 0-1-1 1-1 1-1 1-0-1
Consensus Pick Record 1-3
2010 Record 129-122-5 134-117-5 126-125-5 136-115-5 134-117-5
2009 Record 123-130-3 132-121-3 131-122-3 130-123-3 126-127-3
2008 Record 132-114-10 128-118-10 124-122-10 125-121-10 130-116-10
2007 Record 127-120 118-129 127-120 N/A 130-117
2006 Record 118-129 N/A 139-108 N/A N/A
2005 Record 121-126 N/A 127-120 N/A N/A
2004 Record 124-124 N/A 130-118 N/A N/A
2003 Record 121-126 118-129 124-123 N/A N/A
2002 Record 113-136 123-126 141-108 N/A N/A
2001 Record 124-113 117-120 118-119 N/A N/A
2000 Record 123-117 134-106 141-99 N/A N/A
Consensus Picks

This week we have five consensus picks: the Broncos, Vikings, Bills, Raiders and Seahawks. We went 1-0 on consensus picks in Week 2 to put us at at 2-3 on the year. We went 32-21-1 on consensus picks in 2010.

Comments:

WriterComment
EricksonGoing really ugly with the best bet, but the Seahawks have one of the best home field advantages in the game, and what has Arizona really done to merit being a road favorite, with a half-point hook no less? ... Call me a square, but I would have gone up to 17 points at least on the Chargers. ... Weirdly enough, the toughest pick for me was the Steelers-Colts game. That line is so high, it just wants to make you take the Colts - it's a trap line. So I'll go along with what will probably end up being the public line.
PianowskiNew England's such a public darling; you'll have to pay the freight all year if you want to back them. The Bills have their holes and issues, but this offense is pretty good, and it should score 20-plus on the Pats . . . Home field never seems to mean that much in NFC East games. Happy to take points in those matchups, especially when the line is over 3.
LissTons of home dogs, not sure I can pass them up two weeks into the season where so much is still unknown.
StopaThis week had a recurring theme - lines of 3.5 or 4 where the team giving the points is better and, in many cases, significantly better. These all strike me as traps. I mean, what's 3.5 points when the Panthers, Jets, Ravens, Lions, Packers and Cardinals are better than the Jaguars, Raiders, Rams, Vikings, Bears, and Seahawks, respectively? Well, that's what I thought about Broncos/Bengals, Bills/Raiders, and Cardinals/Redskins last week, and despite being correct in each instance about who would win the game, the 3.5 points caused me to lose ATS. More than a FG matters, especially at home (as 4 of those 6 are home dogs). I'll take more than a FG with dogs that the public doesn't want. Remember, Vegas isn't giving it away. ... Bills/Pats is interesting because a significant majority of the public is on the Pats, as usual, yet the line has gone from 10.5 to around 9. That means the sharps are on the Bills (perhaps recognizing the Pats are 31st in the NFL in defense), so I'll side with the sharps and trust the Bills to keep it close at home. ... Similar dynamic with the Chiefs and Colts, where the line has gone down despite the public being on the Chargers and Steelers, respectively, so I'll hold my nose. ... Best bet is Broncos, who strike me as similar to the Titans yet getting more than a TD because the Titans had what will likely go down as their best game of 2011. I also love how that line moved from +4.5 to over 7.
Del DonIt feels weird giving 3.5 points with a team that's 2-16 over their last 18 games, but such is the case with the Panthers...I actually expect the Raiders to beat the Jets outright this week...The Seahawks look like a true doormat, but I can't see Arizona laying more than a field goal having to play in a tough Seattle environment...After being just three-point dogs (which turned out to be spot on) last week against the Cowboys, the 49ers are getting less than three in Cincinnati? Clearly, Vegas respects San Francisco more than I do.


The players:

Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Value Meter. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and Surviving the Week in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Working the Wire. Roots for the Bills.

Dalton Del Don: RotoWire Senior Staff Writer. 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Game Capsules and the Barometer. Covers the Eagles and roots for the 49ers.