According to the Data: Why You Should Gamble on Late-Round Rookie Running Backs

Why You Should Gamble on Late-Round Rookie Running Backs

Since I wrote Fantasy Football for Smart People, I've received a lot of e-mails asking about rookie running backs. The most common topic is how to project the stats for Trent Richardson, Doug Martin and the rest of the rookie backs who have no history of NFL production.

My answer is I don't think there's a great way to project the stats for rookie running backs; by now, RotoWire readers know I'm all about objective stat analysis, but I think projecting rookies involves more subjectivity than is required for other players. There are just too many variables to create any sort of totally objective projection.

However, gambling on rookie running backs is often a wise move. Whereas rookie wide receivers rarely post outstanding fantasy numbers, runners have the ability

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