Week-to-Week Consistency, Part II
Last week, I published an
article that attempted to explain the possible illusion of week-to-week consistency. As I wrote there, I think the majority of what people perceive as consistency is simply the result of a limited sample of games.
While certain players possess more season-to-season consistency than others, the short NFL season makes over-analysis of each game unavoidable. When a baseball player goes 1-for-10 over a two-game period, we often chalk it up to being unlucky. Meanwhile, when a quarterback turns in two poor performances in a row, the sky begins to fall in fantasy land.
Imagine cutting up the MLB season into 16-game segments. Each player would have a few segments of really poor play and a few periods of outstanding play. Over the course of the entire 162-game season, those peaks and valleys tend to even out, which is why ba
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