Over the past few weeks, I've attempted to determine whether weekly consistency exists on an individual basis. My original hypothesis was that the majority of what we often label as consistent week-to-week play is really an illusion - the result of a small sample of games that are inherently more random than most people realize.
In past articles, I've used baseball as an example of why we place too much emphasis on each individual football game. We'd never watch a string of 16 MLB games and conclude that a player who hits .450 over that stretch is really a .450 hitter. We'd likely claim that his hitting over that stretch was very consistent, but we wouldn't suggest he's inherently consistent with such a small sample of games to study.
Since 16 games is all we have to analyze NFL players, however, we often draw far-reaching conclusions based on a single season. Is Wes Welker really as
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