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According to the Data: Checking in With Rookie Running Backs and Wide Receivers

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. In addition to RotoWire, Jonathan also provides content to the New York Times, Dallas Morning News, DallasCowboys.com, and NBC.

Rookies are intriguing because so much mystery surrounds their first year in the NFL. Generally viewed as high-risk/high-reward options, I showed in the preseason that you should view rookies differently based on their positions. Specifically, I showed that rookie running backs are often quite undervalued because owners are generally risk-averse, fearing the unknown.

Few late-round picks have provided the upside of rookie running backs over the past half-decade. Despite only three rookie runners getting selected in the top-20 running backs over that time, nine (Chris Johnson, Matt Forte, Kevin Smith, Steve Slaton, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Reggie Bush, Joseph Addai and Maurice Jones-Drew) have finished in the top 20 by season's end. Seven of those nine have actually finished in the top 12 running backs, making them legitimate No. 1 players at the position.

How about the value of some o

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