According to the Data: Second-Year Running Backs Offer Potential Value

Second-Year Running Backs Offer Potential Value

In my book Fantasy Football for Smart People, I discuss the historic value provided by rookie running backs. In general, rookie running backs fall too far in fantasy drafts because of the uncertainty that surrounds them. As we've seen in 2012 with backs like Trent Richardson, Doug Martin and Alfred Morris, rookie running backs can provide an immediate return if they're placed in high-volume situations.

Heading into the 2013 season, the values of Richardson, Martin and Morris will dissipate. That's not to say any of them will have poor seasons, but rather that the cost to obtain their services will make it improbable that they provide the same return-on-investment as they did in their rookie seasons. It's not a reason to avoid them in drafts per se - most highly-drafted players fail to outperform their ADP - but it's important

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