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According to the Data: Projecting Running Backs Based on Age

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales

Jonathan Bales is the author of the Fantasy Football for Smart People book series. In addition to RotoWire, Jonathan also provides content to the New York Times, Dallas Morning News, DallasCowboys.com, and NBC.

Projecting Running Backs Based on Age

Heading into the 2012 season, many fantasy owners were high on Benjarvus Green-Ellis. After proving to be a touchdown machine in New England, "The Law Firm" was set to rack up touches as Cincinnati's lead running back.
Green-Ellis did indeed see a heavy workload in 2012 with 300 total touches.

Despite finishing with the 10th-most touches for any running back in the league, Green-Ellis checked in at just 22nd in fantasy points at the position, due primarily to horrible efficiency; 3.9 YPC, 4.7 YPR, and a touchdown on just two percent of his touches.

So what went wrong? Green-Ellis was in a running back-friendly situation in Cincinnati. Further, at age 27, Green-Ellis was just entering the prime of his career, right? Maybe not.

I recently researched the production for all running backs with at least 100 touches in a season since 2000. Below, I charted those backs based on their total production

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