Projecting Quarterback Production Based on Age
Heading into the 2013 season, there are a handful of big-name quarterbacks nearing the tail end of their careers; Drew Brees (34), Tom Brady (36) and Peyton Manning (37) are still playing at a high level, but how long can they maintain it? Maybe longer than you think.
Last week, I
broke down historic running back production by age, showing that the total production for most running backs peaks around age 26. Further, the average running back produces his top efficiency at age 22, meaning most running backs are near their best from the time they enter the league and slowly decline from that point on. They produce superior fantasy numbers as they acquire heavier workloads, but most runners are an "anti-wine" - getting worse with age.
Quarterback play is much different. Below, I charted the production for starting quarterbacks over
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