Surviving Week 16
Last week saw some carnage with the Broncos, Eagles, Saints and Lions all going down. In the event your pool is still going, let's take a look at this week's slate:
|Team ||Opponent ||%Taken ||Vegas ML** ||Vegas Odds
|CHARGERS ||Raiders ||38.10% ||450 ||81.82
|49ERS ||Falcons ||15.40% ||750 ||88.24
|BENGALS ||Vikings ||12.30% ||350 ||77.78
|LIONS ||Giants ||10.50% ||450 ||81.82
|Broncos ||TEXANS ||4.90% ||562.5 ||84.91
|SEAHAWKS ||Cardinals ||3.60% ||525 ||84.00
|CHIEFS ||Colts ||3.20% ||275 ||73.33
|RAMS ||Buccaneers ||2.00% ||200 ||66.67
|Dolphins ||BILLS ||1.80% ||135 ||57.45
|JETS ||Browns ||1.30% ||125 ||55.56
|EAGLES ||Bears ||1.20% ||150 ||60.00
|Titans ||Jaguars ||0.90% ||220 ||68.75
Home team in CAPS
** Average of the two moneylines
As always, when we get to this part of the year, these percent-taken numbers are a very rough guide, and you should determine the "pot odds" by looking at the teams your fellow survivors have available.
1. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers have lost to good teams like the Seahawks, Saints, Colts and Panthers, but they usually destroy doormats, especially at home. Atlanta qualifies. I give the 49ers a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks haven't lost a home game in two years (unless you count the replacement ref fiasco against the Packers), and while the Cardinals are a strong team, they've also been considerably better at home this year. I give the Seahawks an 82 percent chance to win this game.
3. Denver Broncos
The Broncos have had 10 days to prepare for a Texans team that's lost 12 in a row, and I assume they'll be focused after losing to San Diego at home. But Matt Schaub
is probably an upgrade for the Texans, they're at home, and Denver's defense has not been good of late. I give the Broncos an 82 percent chance to win this game.
4. Detroit Lions
The Lions are a good team that makes bad mistakes. Fortunately, they'll face the Giants, a bad team that makes bad mistakes. The one concern here is the Giants defense that's still above average and Eli Manning
somehow getting time and snapping out of his funk. But we've been waiting for that all year, and it hasn't happened. I give the Lions an 82 percent chance to win this game.
5. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers looked great on Thursday night in Denver, and they have extra time to prepare. They're also in the playoff hunt and facing a terrible Raiders team that gets lit up by everyone. But Oakland for whatever reason always plays San Diego tough - in fact they beat them outright earlier in the year. I give the Chargers an 80 percent chance to win this game.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
This game looks good on paper, but the Vikings nearly beat the Ravens in Baltimore before smoking the Eagles at home. Still Cincinnati should exploit Minnesota's porous defense and fare decently against Matt Cassel
at home. I give the Bengals a 76 percent chance to win this game.
7. Tennessee Titans
The Titans face the Jaguars, who have been playing better of late, in Jacksonville, and this pick is certainly the weakest of the seven. But Chad Henne
has been bad this year, Justin Blackmon
and Cecil Shorts
are out, and the Titans should be able to move the ball effectively against the Jaguars defense. I give the Titans a 71 percent chance to win this game.
Kansas City Chiefs:
They've played better of late, and they're at home, but the Colts are a live dog and have a quarterback you don't want to be facing up only one score in the fourth quarter.
St. Louis Rams:
The Rams are playing better too, but I don't see much difference in quality between them and the Buccaneers. The home-field advantage helps, but the teams are too close.