This article is part of our NFL Barometer series.
RISING
Branden Oliver, RB, SD
There probably wasn't a more unlikely clincher in fantasy football last week than Oliver, an undrafted rookie out of Buffalo who went into training camp as little more than a presumed practice squad candidate behind Ryan Mathews, Donald Brown and sixth-round pick Marion Grice. A strong preseason earned Oliver an unlikely roster spot ahead of the previously favored Grice, however, and injuries to Mathews (knee) and Brown (concussion) gave Oliver the chance to secure a big role against the Jets on Sunday. Oliver couldn't have played much better than he did, running for 114 yards (6.0 YPC) and a touchdown while catching four passes for 68 yards and a touchdown. Even if Brown plays against the Raiders this week, it seems like the Chargers are compelled to start Oliver until Mathews returns in a couple weeks.
Andre Williams, RB, NYG
Rashad Jennings will likely miss at least one game with the MCL sprain he suffered against the Falcons on Sunday, and he could sit out through the Giants' Week 8 bye. That leaves the Giants with Williams as the starting runner. A fourth-round pick out of Boston College, Williams has a recent history of high-level production (2,177 yards, 18 touchdowns on the ground in 13 games in his senior season last year), and he tested well at the Combine, particularly for a 230-pound runner. Playing against a Philadelphia defense allowing 26.4 points per game, Williams seems like a solid RB2 play
RISING
Branden Oliver, RB, SD
There probably wasn't a more unlikely clincher in fantasy football last week than Oliver, an undrafted rookie out of Buffalo who went into training camp as little more than a presumed practice squad candidate behind Ryan Mathews, Donald Brown and sixth-round pick Marion Grice. A strong preseason earned Oliver an unlikely roster spot ahead of the previously favored Grice, however, and injuries to Mathews (knee) and Brown (concussion) gave Oliver the chance to secure a big role against the Jets on Sunday. Oliver couldn't have played much better than he did, running for 114 yards (6.0 YPC) and a touchdown while catching four passes for 68 yards and a touchdown. Even if Brown plays against the Raiders this week, it seems like the Chargers are compelled to start Oliver until Mathews returns in a couple weeks.
Andre Williams, RB, NYG
Rashad Jennings will likely miss at least one game with the MCL sprain he suffered against the Falcons on Sunday, and he could sit out through the Giants' Week 8 bye. That leaves the Giants with Williams as the starting runner. A fourth-round pick out of Boston College, Williams has a recent history of high-level production (2,177 yards, 18 touchdowns on the ground in 13 games in his senior season last year), and he tested well at the Combine, particularly for a 230-pound runner. Playing against a Philadelphia defense allowing 26.4 points per game, Williams seems like a solid RB2 play this week at the very least.
Ronnie Hillman, RB, DEN
With Montee Ball (groin) set to miss time and C.J. Anderson falling down the depth chart, it appears that the Broncos will have little choice but to lean on Hillman and, to a lesser extent, Juwan Thompson for however long Ball sits. Although he doesn't possess even a hint of power as a runner, Hillman is very fast and has pass-catching ability, making him an enticing big-play threat in the NFL's most prolific offense. He ran for 64 yards on 15 carries against the Cardinals on Sunday, and he'll likely serve as the lead runner this week against a Jets squad that just got obliterated by Oliver.
Ben Tate, RB, CLE
Tate (knee) returned from his two-game absence against the Titans on Sunday, and he looked pretty good doing so. Playing 51 of Cleveland's offensive snaps, he ran for 123 yards on just 22 carries, good for 5.6 yards per rush. Durability will never be one of Tate's strong suits, but so long as he's healthy he has the traits necessary to remain productive in the Browns offense. They're a run-heavy team with a talented offensive line, and Tate has the size and athleticism to profile as a productive lead runner.
Justin Hunter, WR, TEN
Hunter's obvious breakout potential has been held back by a shaky Tennessee passing game and a limited play count, holding the 6-foot-4, 4.4-running wideout to just 237 yards and one touchdown on 12 catches through five games. While the Tennessee passing game will probably remain questionable, it looks like Hunter is on the verge of earning a higher play count going forward, which could be enough for him to start breaking out. He led the Titans wideouts with 66 offensive snaps against the Jaguars on Sunday, and the result was three catches for 99 yards and a touchdown on five targets.
FALLING
Calvin Johnson, WR, DET
It's been an extremely disappointing season for Megatron owners, as the universal first-round fantasy pick could miss one or two games with an ankle sprain that held him to three catches for 19 yards over the last two weeks – two games he probably shouldn't have played in, anyway. It's almost a best-case scenario for Johnson to sit out at this point – he's no use to fantasy owners playing on one leg, and he might not fully recover if the Lions don't give him time to rest. The Falcons gained nothing by playing half-strength Roddy White last year, so the Lions would be wise to take a different approach.
Toby Gerhart, RB, JAC
Be it due to injury, circumstances or skill level, Gerhart has been almost useless this year. A sprained ankle in Week 1 and a sprained foot in Sunday's game against Pittsburgh have no doubt made life harder for Gerhart, but it's still difficult to rationalize a total of 206 yards from scrimmage and as many lost fumbles (1) as touchdowns through five games. After already losing touches to backup Denard Robinson, Gerhart's early exit from the Steelers game allowed another backup, rookie Storm Johnson, get his foot in the door by running for 27 yards on four carries.
Donald Brown, RB, SD
Not only did Brown suffer a concussion against the Jets on Sunday, but he allowed himself to get vastly outdone by Oliver, an undrafted rookie out of Buffalo. Brown has been awful for the most part since arriving in San Diego, running for just 126 yards on 59 carries, good for an average of 2.1 yards per carry. Even if Brown is able to suit up against the Raiders this week, the Chargers have almost no choice but to make Oliver the feature back after torching the Jets for 182 yards and two touchdowns from scrimmage.
Andy Dalton, QB, CIN
The Bengals were widely expected to go to a more run-heavy offense this year under offensive coordinator Hue Jackson's leadership, posing a threat to Dalton's fantasy value in the process. It so far seems like the fears have come true, as Dalton heads into his fifth game with just 926 yards and four touchdowns through the air. He's attempted just 108 passes, leaving him on pace for 432 attempts after throwing 586 attempts a year ago. It's particularly concerning that the Bengals somehow called just 24 pass plays against the Patriots on Sunday – a game where they got blown out 43-17.
Jason Witten, TE, DAL
Witten is averaging a respectable average of 7.68 yards per target this year – a negligible improvement over last year's average of 7.67 – but his prominence in the Dallas offense has decreased relative to where it was last year. He has just 28 targets to this point, leaving him on pace for 90 targets after finishing 2013 with 111. As a result, he heads into his sixth game with just 19 catches for 215 yards and no touchdowns. If it hasn't already started, Witten's physical decline is probably imminent. Although his age (32) isn't prohibitively high, he's in the midst of his 12th NFL season, and he's taken a lot of punishment by catching 898 passes in 180 games.
