This article is part of our Survivor series.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken | Vegas ML* | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Titans | 38.10% | 450 | 81.82 |
| CARDINALS | Rams | 15.80% | 300 | 75.00 |
| Broncos | RAIDERS | 14.20% | 600 | 85.71 |
| SEAHAWKS | Giants | 9.20% | 450 | 81.82 |
| Cowboys | Jaguars** | 6.40% | 265 | 72.6 |
| Steelers | JETS | 6.20% | 220 | 68.75 |
| BENGALS | Browns | 3.90% | 245 | 71.01 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 3.60% | 320 | 76.19 |
| EAGLES | Panthers | 1.00% | 250 | 71.43 |
*Average of the Vegas moneylines
** in London
There are a lot of possibilities this week, though this far into the season, I imagine few people have Denver or Seattle still available. The Broncos are the easy top choice, given their 86 percent Vegas odds and relatively low usage, with the Seahawks (according to Vegas) an easy second (though I trust them quite a bit less.)
My Picks:
1. Denver Broncos
While it's hard to see them losing outright to the Raiders - especially off a bad loss in New England last week - the Raiders lost by only six to the Seahawks in Seattle last week, are desperate, play the Broncos twice per year and are at home. Still, if I have Denver available, I'm using them given my other top team, the Ravens, has 38 percent of pools on them. I give
| Team | Opponent | %Taken | Vegas ML* | Vegas Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAVENS | Titans | 38.10% | 450 | 81.82 |
| CARDINALS | Rams | 15.80% | 300 | 75.00 |
| Broncos | RAIDERS | 14.20% | 600 | 85.71 |
| SEAHAWKS | Giants | 9.20% | 450 | 81.82 |
| Cowboys | Jaguars** | 6.40% | 265 | 72.6 |
| Steelers | JETS | 6.20% | 220 | 68.75 |
| BENGALS | Browns | 3.90% | 245 | 71.01 |
| PACKERS | Bears | 3.60% | 320 | 76.19 |
| EAGLES | Panthers | 1.00% | 250 | 71.43 |
*Average of the Vegas moneylines
** in London
There are a lot of possibilities this week, though this far into the season, I imagine few people have Denver or Seattle still available. The Broncos are the easy top choice, given their 86 percent Vegas odds and relatively low usage, with the Seahawks (according to Vegas) an easy second (though I trust them quite a bit less.)
My Picks:
1. Denver Broncos
While it's hard to see them losing outright to the Raiders - especially off a bad loss in New England last week - the Raiders lost by only six to the Seahawks in Seattle last week, are desperate, play the Broncos twice per year and are at home. Still, if I have Denver available, I'm using them given my other top team, the Ravens, has 38 percent of pools on them. I give the Broncos an 86 percent chance to win this game.
2. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are not close to last year's team with a weak offensive line, not much pass rush, and no downfield passing game of which to speak. The Giants are a disaster and could easily get blown out in Seattle, but they're also a wounded animal off some embarrasing losses and have the personnel to get to Russell Wilson. I give the Seahawks a 79 percent chance to win this game.
3. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are stout on both sides of the line, and while injuries in the secondary have hurt, I think they'll throttle Tennessee at home. The only reason I have them behind Seattle is their 38 percent usage rate - and even then it's close. I give the Ravens an 83 percent chance to win this game.
4. Green Bay Packers
The Bears are always dangerous given their offensive weapons, but Lambeau has been a house of horrors for Jay Cutler, and their defense can't stop anyone, let alone Aaron Rodgers at home. I give the Packers a 75 percent chance to win this game.
5. Arizona Cardinals
The Rams knocked off the Seahawks and the Niners, so why not the Cardinals? St. Louis had eight sacks last week, and their pass rush is key to having any chance on defense. But the Cardinals stop the run, and that means Austin Davis will have to beat them in their own building, something that strikes me as unlikely. I give the Cardinals a 75 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Dallas Cowboys: With the game in London, and Tony Romo's status up in the air, I want no part of this. Even if Romo plays, you have to wonder whether he'll be himself.
Pittsburgh Steelers: They looked great the last two weeks, but those were home games, and the Jets are a desperate animal with an NFL QB and decent weapons going against a weak defense.
Cincinnati Bengals: I don't think much of the Browns, but the Bengals were life and death with the Jaguars midway through the fourth quarter last week. There are too many better options here.
Philadelphia Eagles: Sure, Chip Kelly's a genius, and maybe he can turn Mark Sanchez into this year's Josh McCown. But I'm not staking my survivor entry on it against a non-doormat until I see it for more than one half.
