This article is part of our Beat the Cap series.
Beat the Cap: The Price is Wrong
The search for value comes in many forms. Over the past few weeks, we've looked at finding value in lower priced players. However, the downfall of a minimum-priced player failing to produce is far less than when a mid-priced or high-priced player lays a dud.
Often times, sites are a little slow or too quick in their pricing and misrepresent the actual statistical value of players. It leaves players overpriced and underpriced. Finding profit potential in higher priced players is a substantial advantage.
One way to analyze a player's salary is how Las Vegas attempts to set their spreads. Vegas aims to receive equal action on both sides of a spread. Consider a player's salary a spread and analyze both sides of why it is potentially too high or too low. After weighting the pros and cons, there are essentially three outcomes: the price is justified, the price is too high and the price is too low. You want to avoid the overpriced players, obviously.
Two examples immediately stand out using Tuesday's FanDuel salaries: Jamie Benn ($8,800, 16.0% of cap and 3.3 FanDuel fantasy points per game) and Vladimir Tarasenko ($6,400, 11.6% of cap and 5.9 FanDuel fantasy points per game). It is no secret Tarasenko has been one of the hottest scorers in the NHL this season, whereas Benn has just three assists over his last 10 games. At first glance, there is a huge difference in profit potential.
However, taking the time to weight the pros and cons for investing in either is still recommended. Perhaps, Benn is just having bad luck. He is averaging 3.8 shots per game over his last 10, and he still has 13 points through 18 games this season. A strong case can be made that Benn is due. Alternatively, Tarasenko has 36 shots over his past 10 games, which have resulted in nine goals and a 25 percent shooting percentage. A similar case could be made that Tarasenko is due for a downtick in production.
Other considerations include the matchup and recent schedule, for example. Ultimately, Benn would likely be a significantly more viable option at Tarasenko's price. Interestingly, on Draft Kings, Benn was cheaper than Tarasenko and therefore a more attractive option Tuesday.
For comparison's sake, this is how it shakes down on Draft Kings: Benn ($6,400, 12.8% of cap and 3.7 Draft Kings fantasy points per game) and Tarasenko ($7,400, 14.8% of cap and 5.3 Draft Kings fantasy points per game).
As mentioned, a lot of the focus to date in Beat the Cap has been on filling out lineups in the endgame and finding value in low-priced players. This analysis is designed to help select the right lineup building blocks.
The Ebb
The Tarasenko and Benn examples are fitting on a number of levels. While they represent two players trending in opposite directions, they also highlight the pricing procedures for both sites.
FanDuel takes the tortoise approach to their salaries. Slowly they adapt to recent trends. Another fitting example is Cody Franson ($3,600, 6.5% of cap and 2.9 FanDuel fantasy points per game), who has a six-game point streak, yet his price doesn't reflect it. Franson's salary at Draft Kings on Tuesday was $5,300.
Draft Kings' prices are updated and adjusted significantly quicker to reflect recent trends. Over his past 10 games, Justin Faulk's salary has climbed from $4,200 to $7,800 and Tuesday, his price tag was $6,700. On FanDuel, Faulk's cost was just $4,200 Tuesday.
A last example is also worth highlighting. Milan Lucic has four points over his past ten games. His salary on Draft Kings was all the way down to $3,800 Tuesday, whereas FanDuel still had him at $6,200. Those prices are 7.6 percent and 11.3 percent of the cap, respectively. It is a significant difference.
The scoring settings on the two sites are significantly different, too, though, which obviously has an impact on how they calculate their salaries. However, when you're spending up for mid-priced and high-priced talents scoring is the priority, not padding your point totals with peripheral statistics.
Additionally, chasing value based on salaries being inaccurate isn't the main focus. Instead, considering the frequency of salary changes and the emphasis on how salaries are weighted is important. Draft Kings prioritizes recent performance to a greater degree, whereas FanDuel's salaries are a little more stagnant.
Taking the time to acknowledge why a player has a particular salary and determining whether or not it is just will make you a better daily player. It is particularly helpful when you're indentifying the core players of your daily lineups.
The Flow
Here are 15 mid- to high-priced forwards to keep in mind. Their current salaries should present profit potential in the immediate future. Positions are based on the site the player is listed under.
Draft Kings
T.J. Oshie, C, St. Louis: It has been a tough season to date for Oshie. He has struggled to produce offense, and he missed time with a concussion. However, points in back-to-back games could have his salary on the rise soon.
Patrik Elias, C New Jersey: A two-assist game in his last outing should kick-start Elias' offense. His price is near the minimum, yet he has proven to be a reliable point producer throughout his career.
Bryan Little, C, Winnipeg: Going pointless in four consecutive games will drop a salary in a hurry, but Little still has 11 points in 19 games this season. Expect an uptick in production aligning with his recent-career marks.
Nicklas Backstrom, C, Washington: He has 510 points in 512 career games. Backstrom's price tag settles at approximately 10 percent of the cap, which screams profit.
Kyle Okposo, W, New York: He is having a great season, and he has an assist in consecutive games. Why his price is so low is a mystery, especially considering his center and usage on the team.
Marian Gaborik, W, Los Angeles: When healthy, Gaborik has been stuck in neutral to start the season. A recent lineup swap has Gaborik skating with the team's top-two scorers.
Josh Bailey, W, New York: Now skating with John Tavares and Okposo, the former first-round selection also has a point in four straight games. The room for profit may be dwindling.
FanDuel
Jori Lehtera, C, St. Louis: In the midst of a seven-game point streak and centering on of the league's top trios, Lehtera is underpriced. There is no reason to expect him to slow down significantly, either.
Ryan Kesler, C, Anaheim: He is considerably cheaper than a player with seven points over his past six games should be. Kesler is developing chemistry with Jakob Silfverberg, and he gets top-unit duty with the man advantage.
Nick Spaling, C, Pittsburgh: Now flanking Evgeni Malkin, expect Spaling's price to take awhile to catch up to his production. He passed the eye test Friday against the Maple Leafs and posted an assist Saturday against the Rangers.
Alex Galchenyuk, LW, Montreal:Inconsistency will likely plague the youngster, but his offensive upside is unlimited. In favorable matchups, turn to Galchenyuk with confidence, especially while his price is low.
Valtteri Filppula, LW, Tampa Bay: His price doesn't reflect the 12 points over his last 10 games. As long as Filppula is clicking with Steven Stamkos and Ryan Callahan, his price should be a closer to 12 percent of the cap.
Nick Foligno, RW, Columbus: Producing a career-best pace, Foligno is thriving alongside Ryan Johansen. His price is high, but it isn't inline with his output to date, although he's been inconsistent game-to-game.
Ryan Callahan, RW, Tampa Bay: Similar to Filppula, Callahan has consecutive multi-point games and 15 points through 14 games this season. He is grossly underpriced at less than 10 percent of the cap.
Josh Bailey, RW, New York: See above, Bailey's price is too low on FanDuel, too.
If you have additional questions or would like to see anything specifically covered in Beat the Cap contact me in the comments below or via Twitter @naparker77.
