This article is part of our Daily Games Cheat Sheet series.
TEAM ANALYSIS
Defenses to Avoid
New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets: The Rockets' defense has been dominant, and their starters are finally getting healthy. In their last five games, Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverley, and Isaiah Canaan have returned to the lineup, and Kostas Papanikolaou is questionable to return Thursday. That the Rockets retained their status as a top-three defense through the plague of injuries ought to place Kevin McHale in the Coach of the Year conversation – and, more importantly to fantasy players, it speaks to the quality of the Rockets' defensive scheme. Now, with defensive stalwarts Howard and Beverley back in action, the Rockets are arguably the most formidable fantasy opponent in the league.
Offenses to Use
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls: Thursday's slate features two bad defenses - the Knicks and the Bucks - but only one of those bad defenses faces a consistent offense. The Kings, at home against the Bucks, have done a lot of rotational tinkering since DeMarcus Cousins (illness) went out. On the other hand, predicting which Bulls big man would have a strong night has required little more than process of elimination and the pregame injury report. Bulls starters, especially Jimmy Butler and Pau Gasol, have ranked among the most consistent values on DraftKings this season. Then there is the matter of the Knicks, who don't get the credit they deserve for their desirability as a fantasy opponent. They rank among the most favorable teams in the league in opponent points per possession, opponent shooting efficiency, and rebounding percentage. Knicks opponents are also among the league leaders in steals and free throws attempted.
Teams on a Back-to-Back Set
First game of a back-to-back: Chicago Bulls, Oklahoma City Thunder
Second game of a back-to-back: Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks
DraftKings.com DAILY PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS
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Point Guard
Russell Westbrook, OKC (at GS), PG, ($11,700): As much as there is to like about Westbrook, there are also causes for concern among most of the other high-dollar players Thursday. Anthony Davis faces off against a Rockets frontcourt anchored by Howard, Kevin Durant goes against the smothering Warriors' wings and forwards, and Steph Curry will be guarded by Westbrook. Westbrook, on the other hand, faces the weakest part of the Warrior's system – their guards. Westbrook's worst game this season was a 40 fantasy point showing more than two weeks ago. He's tallied at least 45 fantasy points in every game since, and at least 50 in his last three. Westbrook has been as dominant as he's been consistent.
Other suggestions: Pablo Prigioni, NY (at CHI), PG, ($3,300); Patrick Beverley, HOU (vs NO), PG, ($5,500)
Shooting Guard
Jimmy Butler, CHI (vs NY), PG, ($7,200): Regular readers of the Daily Games Cheat Sheet might be getting tired of reading my weekly Butler paragraphs. But I don't feel badly, since Butler remains one of the most consistently underpriced players this season. Butler has broken 4.8 p/K (fantasy points per thousand dollars of salary) 16 times this season – only three players have hit that mark more often. The discount is sweetened by Thursday's cupcake matchup against the undermanned and defensively-challenged Knicks.
Other suggestions: Austin Rivers, NO (at HOU), SG, ($3,400)
Small Forward
Trevor Ariza, HOU (vs NO), SF, ($6,500): Ariza is a pretty low-risk pick, made even less risky by the Rockets' injury report. While the stars and starters have been returning to the lineup, bench role players have fallen out, with Jason Terry (personal) and Francisco Garcia (calf) joining the ranks of the unavailable. Even if Terry and Garcia return Thursday – both are questionable – Ariza has averaged 42 minutes per game in December. It's been nearly a month since Ariza failed to tally 25 fantasy points, and if Thursday's daily contests are lower scoring affairs – as they usually are with the short slate of games – then he'll need little more than that to profit.
Other suggestions: Harrison Barnes, GS (vs OKC), SF, ($5,000)
Power Forward
Jason Thompson, SAC (vs MIL), PF, ($4,900): Ever since Cousins was sidelined three weeks ago, determining which Kings big man will play starters' minutes has felt like Whack-a-Mole. No one has been truly consistent, but Thompson has come the closest, playing at least 30 minutes six times, and scoring at least 20 fantasy points in six of his last seven. As long as Cousins remains inactive Thursday (he's currently questionable), Thompson rates as a relatively low-risk play with high-reward potential.
Other suggestions: Marreese Speights, GS (vs OKC), PF, ($4,900)
Center
Dwight Howard, HOU (vs NO), C, ($9,000): For the second straight game, Howard was his typical dominant self Wednesday. He recorded 24 points, 16 rebounds, and four blocks for 53 fantasy points in 42 minutes. That was his second game back, and he has posted at least 24-13-3 and 53 fantasy points in each. When Howard is healthy, he is dominant, and he will probably be guarded by Omer Asik, not Anthony Davis, for most of Thursday's game. It's no insult to Asik to point out that he is not on Howard's level.
Other suggestions: None.
INJURY REPORT
Out
Doug McDermott (knee)
David Lee (hamstring)
Andrew Bogut (knee)
Terrence Jones (leg)
Jabari Parker (knee)
Andrea Bargnani (hamstring)
Cleanthony Early (knee)
Iman Shumpert (shoulder)
J.R. Smith (heel)
Mitch McGary (leg)
Game-Time Decision
Taj Gibson (ankle) is questionable.
Joakim Noah (ankle) is expected to return Thursday.
Kostas Papanikolaou (knee) is questionable.
Jason Terry (personal) is questionable.
Francisco Garcia (calf) is day-to-day.
Giannis Antetokounmpo (ankle) is a game-time decision after leaving Wednesday's game with the injury.
John Henson (foot) is a game-time decision.
Ersan Ilyasova (nose) is a game-time decision.
Reggie Evans (knee/hip) is questionable.
Omri Casspi (knee) is questionable.
Rudy Gay (Achilles) is probable.
DeMarcus Cousins (illness) is questionable.
