What a glorious fantasy season it was. I hope that all RotoWire subscribers had the best of luck in their finals. It was certainly a tumultuous week with many of the elite quarterbacks doing absolutely nothing (Aaron Rodgers
, Andrew Luck
and Drew Brees
combined for two touchdowns), but pass catchers did their best to carry us to titles. Odell Beckham
, Dez Bryant
, Randall Cobb
, Jordy Nelson
, Antonio Gates
and Sammy Watkins
did their fantasy owners properly in the final week of the season. Now that the redraft season is behind us, I'd like to look back at the target spectrum for the year.
It shouldn't surprise any of us to see Antonio Brown
and Demaryius Thomas
atop this list. They will be drafted very high in 2015, and they'll likely be worth their tag. If Peyton Manning
retires, I do believe that there may be a significant drop in DT's redraft ADP, and I am inclined to believe that could create profit potential. Thomas is the best player in that offense and regardless of the quarterback, he will still see a ton of targets and add touchdown potential. It is interesting to note that only AB and DT played a full healthy season and averaged more than 10 targets per game.
was a close third, and I think his 2014 season set up a great redraft price tag in 2015. Dynasty players are already heavily invested in the young Atlanta Falcon but re-drafters are prone to recency bias. Jones has had a down year due to a lack of touchdowns, but there is an easy path to regression. He's massive and quick, which already paints illustrious touchdown potential, but look at the players around him in sheer targets -- Brown, Demaryius, Nelson, Alshon have similar targets and have double-digit touchdowns. If Jones' redraft tag falls into the third round next year, it's going to be hard to not draft him repeatedly. There is also the added benefit of Roddy White
getting another year older and slower; as White has aged over the last several seasons, Jones' role in the offense has grown.
could also scream touchdown regression, except ... he's 31, plays for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and is opposite one of the most talented wide receivers in football. Mike Evans
severely limits VJax's ceiling on a week-to-week basis because he is so much better at scoring touchdowns due to this athleticism and size advantage. Evans is basically Kelvin Benjamin
with less targets and way more explosiveness, which should bode well for drafters hoping to take advantage of his slow finish to the season. The Bucs are liable to draft a quarterback with their first pick next year, and if they do, both Jackson and Evans could end up being nice redraft values next season, though I would be cautious of falling into the Larry Fitzgerald
trap with Jackson. When big, tall receivers get old, they age in a hurry. It's uncommon for 6-foot-4, 220, wide receivers who rely on speed and quickness to get open to post WR1 or even high-end WR2 numbers after age 31.
I have beat this discussion to death, but Rob Gronkowski
absolutely deserves to be a first-round draft pick. He scores touchdowns per game at a greater rate than Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson
and Demaryius Thomas
and scores almost .3 more touchdowns per game than Jimmy Graham
. Graham, on other hand, will basically be entirely off my board come next season. He has one 100-yard game this season, his quarterback is in rapid decline and it is clear that we are not dealing with the Saints of old. They are a bad football team, and at this point, Graham is basically Martellus Bennett
. Marty B has seen 117 targets this season, while Graham has 116. Bennett has a slightly more yards, while Graham has four more touchdowns. That difference in touchdown scoring is to be expected as the Black Unicorn is the fourth option on his team in the passing game whereas Graham is the clear No. 1. That said, something dramatic would have to happen for Graham to return to prominence as a viable second- or third-round draft pick.
Finally, I think Odell Beckham
is going to be worth whatever he costs next season. Jordy Nelson
and Calvin Johnson
are close to entering their age 30 seasons, and I always prefer to invest in youth over experience. Beckham was limited as a college player by the offense he was in, but in the NFL, there is a system in place that can stop him. No quarterback, no offensive coordinator, no cornerback has the ability to stop Beckham from scoring touchdowns, and that is worth getting on your team even though it takes a first-round pick.