This article is part of our On Target series.
After Week 1, we return to "On Target." It was a great Week 1 for all of you hopefully, as we finally have football back in our lives. For those unfamiliar with this column, it's my weekly analysis of wide receivers and tight ends and their roles in their teams' passing games. The best way to analyze these roles is by looking at playing time (snap count) market share (percentage of a teams targets that a pass catcher receives) and red-zone market share (percentage of teams red-zone targets that a pass catcher receives, generally indicative of future touchdowns). Here are the top 20 targeted players from Week 1 and then four pass catchers who deserve analysis.
Davante Adams
While James Jones had the big fantasy
| PLAYERS | TARGETS | REC | YARDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 17 | 15 | 166 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 14 | 7 | 88 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 13 | 10 | 102 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 13 | 9 | 98 | 2 |
| Rashad Greene | 13 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Tyler Eifert | 12 | 9 | 104 | 2 |
| Julian Edelman | 12 | 11 | 97 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 12 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 12 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 11 | 9 | 141 | 2 |
| Antonio Brown | 11 | 9 | 133 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 11 | 6 | 105 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 11 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 11 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 11 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 11 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 11 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 11 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 10 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 10 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
Davante Adams
While James Jones had the big fantasy
After Week 1, we return to "On Target." It was a great Week 1 for all of you hopefully, as we finally have football back in our lives. For those unfamiliar with this column, it's my weekly analysis of wide receivers and tight ends and their roles in their teams' passing games. The best way to analyze these roles is by looking at playing time (snap count) market share (percentage of a teams targets that a pass catcher receives) and red-zone market share (percentage of teams red-zone targets that a pass catcher receives, generally indicative of future touchdowns). Here are the top 20 targeted players from Week 1 and then four pass catchers who deserve analysis.
Davante Adams
While James Jones had the big fantasy day Sunday, Adams actually lead the Packers in targets. I have my doubts over Adams' skill level; he was one of the least efficient wide receivers last season despite getting some serious run over the last eight games of the season for Green Bay. That said, a potted plant has value in the Packers offense as long as its on the field. With Randall Cobb playing through a shoulder injury, it's likely Adams continues to be heavily involved. The cost you paid for Adams on draft day post-Nelson injury was too high, but it's not a sunk cost. It's not an ideal matchup against the Seahawks this week, but Adams has value this week and beyond.
Jarvis Landry
Landry received 12 of the Dolphins' 34 pass attempts last week, which is good for a 35 percent market share of targets. While 35 percent is probably on the high side, Landry is a good bet to be one of the four or five wide receivers who finishes the season with a greater than 30 percent market share of his team's pass attempts. The punt return touchdown added a nice six points to his stat line that won't be there most weeks, however. Landry's skillset doesn't really transition well to the red zone. He isn't too athletic, but he's sure handed and runs the type of routes that convert on third down and pick up six or seven yards a pop. Landry likely will never be an efficient player, but he's almost always a safe bet for double-digit points in good matchups. You aren't going to want him in your lineups against elite slot corners because he doesn't have the athleticism to fight them off the line.
DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins might be the most predictable dominator of targets on this list. With Arian Foster out, he is the best player his team has on offense. If they want to move the ball and score points, they have to get Hopkins the ball. The game script went in Hopkins' favor early against the Chiefs, but a rotating QB circus and no reliable running back likely will lead to a lot of three-and-outs for the Houston offense, which will put them behind. It's not an ideal matchup this week against Josh Norman, but I actually think Hopkins ends this season leading the NFL in targets after garnering 28 percent of his team's attempts in Week 1. In games that the Texans are projected to trail, Hopkins likely will have a double-digit target floor. In seasonal leagues, if you can trade for Hopkins, do that in a heart beat.
Cole Beasley, Terrance Williams
I just want to take this space to talk about the Dallas offense. Some will make the mistake of thinking Williams is the surefire play in the Dallas offense, and they likely are off base. Williams will play his same position, while others fill in the "X" position that Dez played and mostly run block. Dallas wants to control the tempo of games and not let the speed be dictated. In my mind, this will logically lead to Beasley being feed with targets in the flat and on short slants. Williams had a 14 percent market share of Dallas' passes last season, and I expect that his ceiling for target share is about 20 percent. He's going to be the deep-ball guy for Dallas still and might see a few extra shots per game, but in the red zone, the team will run or involve tight ends Jason Witten and Gavin Escobar, not Williams. If I had one add to make here, it would be Beasley.
| PLAYERS | TARGETS | REC | YARDS | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 17 | 15 | 166 | 0 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 14 | 7 | 88 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 13 | 10 | 102 | 0 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 13 | 9 | 98 | 2 |
| Rashad Greene | 13 | 7 | 28 | 1 |
| Tyler Eifert | 12 | 9 | 104 | 2 |
| Julian Edelman | 12 | 11 | 97 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 12 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 12 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 11 | 9 | 141 | 2 |
| Antonio Brown | 11 | 9 | 133 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 11 | 6 | 105 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 11 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 11 | 5 | 78 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 11 | 7 | 63 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 11 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 11 | 4 | 51 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 11 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 10 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 10 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
Davante Adams
While James Jones had the big fantasy day Sunday, Adams actually lead the Packers in targets. I have my doubts over Adams' skill level; he was one of the least efficient wide receivers last season despite getting some serious run over the last eight games of the season for Green Bay. That said, a potted plant has value in the Packers offense as long as its on the field. With Randall Cobb playing through a shoulder injury, it's likely Adams continues to be heavily involved. The cost you paid for Adams on draft day post-Nelson injury was too high, but it's not a sunk cost. It's not an ideal matchup against the Seahawks this week, but Adams has value this week and beyond.
Jarvis Landry
Landry received 12 of the Dolphins' 34 pass attempts last week, which is good for a 35 percent market share of targets. While 35 percent is probably on the high side, Landry is a good bet to be one of the four or five wide receivers who finishes the season with a greater than 30 percent market share of his team's pass attempts. The punt return touchdown added a nice six points to his stat line that won't be there most weeks, however. Landry's skillset doesn't really transition well to the red zone. He isn't too athletic, but he's sure handed and runs the type of routes that convert on third down and pick up six or seven yards a pop. Landry likely will never be an efficient player, but he's almost always a safe bet for double-digit points in good matchups. You aren't going to want him in your lineups against elite slot corners because he doesn't have the athleticism to fight them off the line.
DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins might be the most predictable dominator of targets on this list. With Arian Foster out, he is the best player his team has on offense. If they want to move the ball and score points, they have to get Hopkins the ball. The game script went in Hopkins' favor early against the Chiefs, but a rotating QB circus and no reliable running back likely will lead to a lot of three-and-outs for the Houston offense, which will put them behind. It's not an ideal matchup this week against Josh Norman, but I actually think Hopkins ends this season leading the NFL in targets after garnering 28 percent of his team's attempts in Week 1. In games that the Texans are projected to trail, Hopkins likely will have a double-digit target floor. In seasonal leagues, if you can trade for Hopkins, do that in a heart beat.
Cole Beasley, Terrance Williams
I just want to take this space to talk about the Dallas offense. Some will make the mistake of thinking Williams is the surefire play in the Dallas offense, and they likely are off base. Williams will play his same position, while others fill in the "X" position that Dez played and mostly run block. Dallas wants to control the tempo of games and not let the speed be dictated. In my mind, this will logically lead to Beasley being feed with targets in the flat and on short slants. Williams had a 14 percent market share of Dallas' passes last season, and I expect that his ceiling for target share is about 20 percent. He's going to be the deep-ball guy for Dallas still and might see a few extra shots per game, but in the red zone, the team will run or involve tight ends Jason Witten and Gavin Escobar, not Williams. If I had one add to make here, it would be Beasley.
