This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARDINALS | Ravens | 38.40% | 350 | 77.78% | 8.53 |
| RAMS | Browns | 11.20% | 220 | 68.75% | 3.50 |
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 8.20% | 400 | 80.00% | 1.64 |
| Falcons | TITANS | 8.10% | 200 | 66.67% | 2.70 |
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 7.80% | 200 | 66.67% | 2.60 |
| Bills | Jaguars*** | 6.80% | 230 | 69.70% | 2.06 |
| Seahawks | 49ERS | 5.30% | 275 | 73.33% | 1.41 |
| COLTS | Saints | 3.70% | 200 | 66.67% | 1.23 |
| DOLPHINS | Texans | 3.30% | 192.5 | 65.81% | 1.13 |
| PANTHERS | Eagles | 2.10% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.81 |
| GIANTS | Cowboys | 1.50% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.55 |
| REDSKINS | Buccaneers | 1.40% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.53 |
| Steelers | CHIEFS | 1.30% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.59 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game is in London on a neutral field
Vegas' easy top choice is the Patriots who are 80 percent favorites and only 8.2 percent used. The next highest probability team, the Cardinals, are 38.4 percent used, so it's a close call between them and the No. 3 team, the Seahawks.
To compare the two, let's assume a 100-person pool with an entry fee of $10 for a total pot of $1,000. Consider the odds of a Cards win/Seahawks loss (20.7%) vs. a Seahawks win/Cards loss (16.3%). That ratio is 1.27.
Now consider what happens if you win with the Cardinals and the Seahawks go down. In that case, five people (out of 100) would
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARDINALS | Ravens | 38.40% | 350 | 77.78% | 8.53 |
| RAMS | Browns | 11.20% | 220 | 68.75% | 3.50 |
| PATRIOTS | Jets | 8.20% | 400 | 80.00% | 1.64 |
| Falcons | TITANS | 8.10% | 200 | 66.67% | 2.70 |
| CHARGERS | Raiders | 7.80% | 200 | 66.67% | 2.60 |
| Bills | Jaguars*** | 6.80% | 230 | 69.70% | 2.06 |
| Seahawks | 49ERS | 5.30% | 275 | 73.33% | 1.41 |
| COLTS | Saints | 3.70% | 200 | 66.67% | 1.23 |
| DOLPHINS | Texans | 3.30% | 192.5 | 65.81% | 1.13 |
| PANTHERS | Eagles | 2.10% | 160 | 61.54% | 0.81 |
| GIANTS | Cowboys | 1.50% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.55 |
| REDSKINS | Buccaneers | 1.40% | 165 | 62.26% | 0.53 |
| Steelers | CHIEFS | 1.30% | 120 | 54.55% | 0.59 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game is in London on a neutral field
Vegas' easy top choice is the Patriots who are 80 percent favorites and only 8.2 percent used. The next highest probability team, the Cardinals, are 38.4 percent used, so it's a close call between them and the No. 3 team, the Seahawks.
To compare the two, let's assume a 100-person pool with an entry fee of $10 for a total pot of $1,000. Consider the odds of a Cards win/Seahawks loss (20.7%) vs. a Seahawks win/Cards loss (16.3%). That ratio is 1.27.
Now consider what happens if you win with the Cardinals and the Seahawks go down. In that case, five people (out of 100) would lose with Seattle, and another 19 with everyone else. That means 76 would be left for an equity share of $1000/76 = $13.16. But if the Seahawks win and Cardinals lose, 38 people would go down with the Cardinals, plus another 19 with other teams. That means 43 of the 100 would be left for an equity share of $23.26. The ratio of $23.26 to $13.16 is 1.77.
That means the payoff (1.77 to 1) for taking Seattle over Arizona outweighs the added risk (1.27 to 1.)
Of course, that assumes you agree with the Vegas odds.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
I was going to fade them because I assumed they'd be heavily owned, but it turns out most people who are still alive already used them. I don't like this matchup against arguably the best defense in the league, and the Jets offense is at least league average. But the Pats are playing at an historically high level, and they so rarely lose at home. I give New England a 78 percent chance to win this game.
2. Seattle Seahawks
This is Vegas' top choice after the Patriots, and they could easily roll against a weak Niners squad. My concern is the Niners have played better at home, and the Seahawks, even when they were at their best, weren't great on the road. I give the Seahawks a 71 percent chance to win this game.
3. Indianapolis Colts
It was close between them and the Seahawks. Indy's at home, and now that Andrew Luck's healthy, I expect him to light up the Saints weak pass defense. I give the Colts a 69 percent chance to win this game.
4. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are missing their two starting receivers, and their defense has not been as good as advertised. But the Jaguars can't stop anyone, and Blake Bortles is good for at least one big mistake per game. I give the Bills a 69 percent chance to win this game.
5. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals should light up the Ravens awful pass defense at home, and they'd be my No. 2 team were they not so heavily owned. But the Ravens should be able to move the ball, and they're a desperate and well-coached team. I give the Cardinals a 76 percent chance to win this game.
6. San Diego Chargers
The Raiders have given the Chargers problems in the past, but San Diego is at home, and they nearly took the Packers to overtime in Lambeau Field. I give the Chargers a 67 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions
St. Louis Rams - I'm not positive they're a better team than the Browns, and their strength, rushing the passer, might be negated by the Browns strong offensive line.
New York Giants - The Giants should handle the Matt Cassel-led Cowboys at home, but Odell Beckham isn't 100 percent, and their best cover corner, Prince Amukamara, is out.
Miami Dolphins - They woke up last week, but they're facing a talented Texans team that could easily beat them if it similarly got on track.
Atlanta Falcons - Tennessee's a doormat, but the Falcons aren't as good as their record, and they don't travel well.
