NFL Barometer: Rising Running Backs, Falling Megatron

RISING

David Johnson, RB, ARZ

It's safe to say Johnson is the real deal. After torching the Eagles for 187 yards and three touchdowns on 29 carries, adding four catches for 42 yards, Johnson gave coach Bruce Arians every reason to forget about Andre Ellington in anything more than a Jerious Norwood-type role. Explosive as Ellington is, Johnson offers similar explosiveness at around 225 pounds with better durability. With 517 yards (4.9 YPC) and seven touchdowns on the ground, not to mention 30 catches for 335 yards and four more touchdowns, Johnson projects as both an elite runner and receiver. He'll be a top fantasy pick next year and is arguably the top fantasy running back going forward in 2015.

Sammy Watkins, WR, BUF

Watkins is only about a week past 22.5 years old, yet there's no doubt that he's one of the top receivers in the NFL right now. His truly rare explosiveness is starting to show on a consistent basis, despite the issues with durability and his team's passing volume, especially earlier this year. He's been lethal over the last month, catching 19 passes for 459 yards and six touchdowns on 36 targets. Watkins has a skill set and athletic profile similar to that of former Green Bay great Sterling Sharpe – it's a crime that he's not in an offense that throws the ball more effectively and/or frequently.

Christine Michael, RB, SEA

You never want to bet too much on any particular outcome with Michael – he's about as unreliable as they get, it seems – but Sunday's game against Cleveland was clearly the high point of his NFL career, and he more importantly made a strong showing while his competition (Bryce Brown) mostly had to watch. Brown did fine for himself, taking nine carries for 43 yards, but Michael's 16 carries for 84 yards indicate a slight bit of favoritism over Brown, at least on Sunday.

James White, RB, NE

White is unlikely to see much rushing work and is unlikely to do much with the carries he does receive, but his impact as a pass catcher has been awfully impressive. Useless as his nine carries for 27 yards and one touchdown over the last five weeks might be, his 35 targets over that span resulted in 25 catches for 261 yards and three touchdowns. With LeGarrette Blount (hip), Danny Amendola (knee) and Julian Edelman (foot) out, White should keep seeing targets.

Jared Abbrederis, WR, GB

"He can get open. He's a good route runner. He needs to be on the field more." In an offense that has struggled all year, largely due to remarkably poor separation at receiver, a statement like this from Aaron Rodgers obviously carries some weight. Rodgers basically identified Abbrederis as a solution to an actual problem, so the Packers have real reason to act on the idea. Davante Adams is in the midst of one of the worst wide receiver seasons of all time, totaling just 43 catches for 387 yards and one touchdown on 82 targets, and Abbrederis has the route-running ability to give Green Bay a much-needed separation boost. Green Bay would be smart to play Abbrederis outside – he's faster than Adams and James Jones – and let Abbrederis run some double-moves in likely single coverage, but even if Green Bay primarily plays Abbrederis inside he'll have a chance to produce in a Rodgers offense. Abbrederis is desirable lottery ticket in dynasty formats and might even be worth owning in redraft leagues of 14 or more teams just in case he displaces Adams.

FALLING

Ryan Tannehill, QB, MIA

This guy probably isn't very good. The NFL's current pass-favoring rules allow players like Tannehill to post QB ratings that seem palatable enough – 87.3 in 2015, for instance – but the visual evidence is not nearly as convincing. Tannehill rarely looks comfortable in the pocket, showing both a fear of and unawareness of the pass rush while struggling to decode coverage. The wheels have fallen off in the last three weeks, and after Sunday's 30-14 loss to San Diego, Tannehill has completed 54-of-94 passes (57.4 percent) for 538 yards (5.7 YPA), two touchdowns and five interceptions despite playing two of the league's worst pass defenses (Baltimore and the Giants) in the other two contests. Tannehill will be 28 in the summer and has shown little progression in the last three years. I'd be trying to pawn him off in dynasty leagues.

Calvin Johnson, WR, DET

I'm skeptical that Johnson's 2015 struggles project to enduring struggles beyond this year, but there's no doubt that this season has been a big disappointment. Durability troubles and questionable offensive scheming have conspired to make Johnson hit-or-miss all year. He has just one game over 100 yards (Week 6), and he has failed to score in nine of his 14 games. Currently playing through an ankle injury, Johnson has just two catches for 35 yards on six targets over the last two weeks. I'm inclined to think he might be a good buy-low target in dynasty formats – a player with Johnson's incredibly rare size-athleticism combination should similarly prove an exception to the general rules of physical decline, or at least, his decline will still leave him at a point relatively higher than most receivers younger than him – Either way, Johnson's 2015 season seems difficult to salvage if the ankle doesn't get better.