Football Draft Kit: 2016 Sleepers & Busts

Fantasy owners love to debate sleepers and busts. But the terms "sleeper" and "bust" do not accurately reflect the actual topic of the debate, nor do they accurately reflect the purpose of this article. So, let's be accurate and term it what it is — "undervalued" and "overvalued." The goal of this article is not to predict unknown players who will be great this year, nor is it to predict name-brand players who will be terrible. It is simply to identify players whose likely average draft position (ADP) makes them either undervalued or overvalued.

Like everything else in life, fantasy drafts are about opportunity cost—the potential gain given up by not drafting Player A to instead draft Player B. To determine that, owners must consider the costs and benefits of each player relative to his ADP. This article will help owners make those decisions. But remember, calling DeAndre Hopkins overvalued, or a bust, does not mean he will be awful this year. It simply means the risk he carries this year outweighs the likelihood that he will return his ADP value.

We polled our NFL writers for their favorite undervalued and overvalued players entering the 2016 season. For our purposes, we limited the "busts" to a top-10 QB/TE or top-20 RB/WR who is likely to be overpriced.

UNDERVALUED

Jerry Donabedian

Tyrod Taylor, QB, Bills

While yet to commit to Taylor for the long term, Buffalo didn't bring in any serious competition, leaving Taylor as the unquestioned starter. He's the second-best runner among starting NFL quarterbacks, coming off a 104-568-4 rushing line in 14 games last season, supported by surprisingly efficient passing stats – 63.7 completion percentage, 8.0 YPA and 20:6 TD:INT. If Sammy Watkins is healthy and the Bills become just a bit more aggressive, Taylor could push for mid-QB1 value. When looking for a QB in the late rounds, I'd rather take a stab at rushing upside with Taylor or Marcus Mariota, as opposed to settling for a Matt Ryan or Ryan Tannehill type.

Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs

An annual first-round selection, 29-year-old Charles is now falling to the second round in most drafts; understandably so, considering he suffered the second torn ACL of his career in October. Of course, his recent injury isn't to the same knee as the first one, and he bounced back from the 2011 ACL tear to post a career-high 1,509 rushing yards in 2012, followed by a season with 2,000-plus scrimmage yards in 2013. Charles has scored 38 touchdowns in his last 35 games, showing no signs of slowing down prior to the injury. Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware, while clearly capable replacements, probably won't provide much competition for a healthy Charles.

Kevin Payne

Kamar Aiken, WR, Ravens

This space was initially reserved for 2015 first-round selection Breshad Perriman, who suffered a partial ACL tear in June. It thus appears Aiken could have another chance to lead the Baltimore wideout group, after emerging from obscurity to catch 56 passes over the final nine weeks of last season for an injury-ravaged team. The Ravens did sign deep threat Mike Wallace, but with both Perriman and Steve Smith uncertain, Aiken is sneakily a threat to become Joe Flacco's favorite target.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans

Injuries limited Mariota to 12 games last season, and the rookie didn't look overmatched when on the field. His 7.62 YPA ranked 10th, and he completed 62.2 percent of his passes — all in an offense that offered no rushing threat and so little help in the passing game that the tight end was the team's only reliable receiver. An outstanding athlete, Mariota gains valuable fantasy points with his rushing ability. He averaged 21 rushing yards per game last season and rushed for two touchdowns, adding a dimension quarterbacks like Drew Brees or Eli Manning don't have. He was a top-3 fantasy player at his position three times last year and should continue to develop in his second season with a better supporting cast.

Chris Liss

Torrey Smith, WR, 49ers

Sure, the situation is awful, but with Anquan Boldin gone, someone has to catch Colin Kaepernick/Blaine Gabbert's passes. Smith has always been a field-stretcher with decent size, and there's virtually no experienced competition for targets. Some places have him ranked in the 70s among WRs, which makes no sense for someone who should see at least 100 targets and possibly many more.

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks

Lockett was productive as a rookie, but Doug Baldwin was the main beneficiary of Russell Wilson's second-half explosion. That could change this season, as Baldwin's production was out of nowhere and likely unsustainable, given his modest physical skills, historic catch rate and lack of red-zone use. Enter Lockett, a deep threat with 4.40 40 speed, who in Year 2 should experience significant growth.

Erik Siegrist

Duke Johnson, RB, Browns

The Browns did nothing to re-stock their RB depth chart this offseason, which leaves just the underwhelming Isaiah Crowell between Johnson and a starting job. His receiving skills give him a solid foundation for value, especially considering Cleveland likely will play from behind more often than not once again, and his 5.5 YPC over the last four weeks of 2015 also hints at some improvement to come on the ground.

DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins

Once he got healthy last season, Parker went on a tear over the last six weeks that equated to a 16-game pace of 59 catches for 1,187 yards and 11 TDs. New Miami head coach Adam Gase got the most out of Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and Alshon Jeffery during his stints as offensive coordinator in Denver and Chicago, and Parker could emerge as a true No. 1 WR in his scheme.

Luke Hoover

DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins

Get Parker while he's still discounted, because by mid-August he may be a runaway hype train. He's the strongest candidate for an Allen Robinson-esque explosion this year. Similarly built to Robinson at 6-foot-3, 218, Parker proved to be a major downfield weapon for Ryan Tannehill when he finally cracked the starting lineup late in his rookie year. He snagged a pass of more than 30 yards in five of the last six games while turning in at least 80 yards receiving in four and scoring in three. A prelude for a huge Year 2.

Matt Forte, RB, Jets

Yes, Forte is 30. Yes, he's on a new team. And yes, his body has endured more than 2,500 touches in 120 career games. The leader in scrimmage yards since 2008, however, might have saved his best for last. Offensive Coordinator Chan Gailey squeezed nearly 1,400 total yards out of a then-30-year-old Fred Jackson during his second season in Buffalo – in just 10 games. Forte, who has a remarkably similar build and playing style to Jackson, went for nearly 1,300 yards in 13 games last year and has enough left in the tank for another run at the top tailback spot.

Andrew Laird

Jarvis Landry, WR, Dolphins

Landry finished sixth in targets last season, ahead of receivers like Odell Beckham, Allen Robinson and A.J. Green, but his fantasy-point total was limited because he caught only four touchdown passes. However, he was a popular option in close, as his 14 targets inside the 10-yard line trailed just two players in the NFL. If he can catch a few more of those Ryan Tannehill passes in the end zone, Landry has a legitimate shot at double-digit touchdowns just on target volume alone. And don't forget that Miami let its top running back, Lamar Miller, leave in the offseason.

Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers

Allen was one of the best wideouts in the league last year, especially in PPR formats, before he suffered a season-ending lacerated kidney in Week 8. He had double-digit targets in five of his first seven games, including four times with at least 13, and he surpassed 130 receiving yards three times. He's the clear No. 1 option in San Diego, and with the running game spearheaded by bust-candidate Melvin Gordon and scatback Danny Woodhead, there's little reason to believe Allen's targets will decline.

Davis Mattek

Dion Lewis, RB, Patriots

Lewis is somehow the 23rd RB off the board in 2016 despite leading all running backs in 2015 in targets per game. There was also a marked difference in the New England offense after Lewis went down with an ACL injury. The Patriots will continue to the be Patriots, running more plays than almost other team in the league and scoring more points than them too. All indications are that if Lewis is healthy, he will return to his role as the primary pass-catching back and red-zone weapon that he was in the early weeks of 2015.

Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks

Lockett going as the 34th wide receiver in drafts ignores both his floor and ceiling. He scored six touchdowns on 69 targets last season and started only 8 games. After posting 13 yards per reception (far better than I expected of him as a slot player), Seattle has found the perfect role for him as a player who is dynamic down the field and also on screen passes. Rookie wide receivers rarely do anything but flash their ceilings, and in the post-Marshawn Lynch era, there is much more room for passing in Seattle.

OVERVALUED

Jerry Donabedian

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings

Now 31, Peterson impressively bounced back from his lost 2014 campaign to produce a 327-1,485-11 (4.5 YPC) rushing line in 2015 as the centerpiece of Minnesota's offense. He'll still be a huge part of the gameplan, but the Vikes seemingly want to open up things a bit for Teddy Bridgewater, having used a first-round pick on WR Laquon Treadwell. Given his name value and lack of receiving contribution, Peterson is highly unlikely to exceed expectations for his draft position, particularly in PPR leagues. Running backs like Devonta Freeman and Ezekiel Elliott – both capable receivers – offer higher ceilings and are usually available later in drafts.

Randall Cobb, WR, Packers

Cobb failed to take advantage of his time as the Packers' No. 1 wideout, catching just 79 passes for 829 yards and six touchdowns in Jordy Nelson's absence last season. The narrative has since been reversed to excuse Cobb's performance, blaming either a nagging shoulder injury or the lack of options to move coverage away from him. There may be some validity to the shoulder concern, but Cobb simply didn't look like his old self last season – he was a step slower and had some ugly drops. Sure, he'll still be the No. 2 receiver in a highly productive offense, but it'll likely be a distant second to the returning Nelson.

Kevin Payne

Lamar Miller, RB, Texans

Miller is expected to lead the rushing attack in Houston this season, but his likely late first-round ADP seems high, considering he's never been a true workhorse who consistently received 20 touches per game. The Texans have an inexperienced quarterback in Brock Osweiler, putting a lot of pressure on the running game, and Alfred Blue and Jonathan Grimes are still around to vulture touches. Miller should make for a fine No. 2 fantasy RB, but using a first-round or early second-round pick on him is expecting a lot.

Vincent Jackson, WR, Buccaneers

Injuries cut short Jackson's season by six games last year, and he has scored only five touchdowns in his last 26 appearances. Mike Evans is clearly the No. 1 receiver, and it wouldn't be surprising to see TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins surpass Jackson as the second option. In addition to facing more competition for targets, Jackson turned 33 in January and no longer possesses the speed to get open downfield. He had five or fewer targets in six of his 10 games last season, proving that he isn't the instrumental piece of the offense he once was.

Chris Liss

Brandon Marshall, WR, Jets

Marshall had a fantastic season, but he turned 32 in March, and the Jets' quarterback situation is up in the air with Ryan Fitzpatrick still unsigned. Marshall keeps himself in fantastic condition, so he might age better than most, but there's significant bust risk with any WR in his 30s, and it's probably better to pass on his going rate off a career year.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans

Hopkins should see plenty of volume, has rookie Will Fuller to stretch the defense and could see a significant upgrade with Brock Osweiler taking over for Brian Hoyer. But Hopkins was inefficient as a No. 1 WR (7.9 yards per target), wasn't especially explosive (only three catches for 40-plus yards on 192 targets) and scored 11 TDs thanks only to massive volume in the red zone (29 looks, T-1st.) His floor is high due to the guaranteed opportunity, but give me the bigger, more physical and more explosive Allen Robinson instead.

Erik Siegrist

Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars

The Jaguars' offense features a lot of exciting young talent and an array of weapons, so it's easy to fall in love with Bortles' upside, but his low completion percentage (58.6) and YPA (7.3) could make it tough for him to even repeat last season's production, much less improve on it. His team also figures to field a better defense this season, which could mean fewer big deficits to overcome and therefore fewer attempts for Bortles.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Titans

Just two years removed from his rushing title with the Cowboys, Murray now finds himself with a Titans team that seems to be gearing up for a power running game to take the pressure off Marcus Mariota, but which also drafted Heisman Trophy winner and Mack Truck impersonator Derrick Henry in the second round. Even if Murray retains a lead role, he won't come close to the volume of touches he had in 2014 and could lose goal-line carries to the rookie, as well.

Luke Hoover

Jordy Nelson, WR, Packers

Returning from a torn ACL, Nelson will resume his spot atop the wide receiver depth chart in Green Bay, surely a great place for fantasy production. But Nelson's career high in targets is 151, which came in 2014 with a bare cupboard at WR. It's not likely he surpasses that this season. As gifted as Aaron Rodgers is, he's thrown more than 550 passes in a season twice, last year's 572 a career high. Nelson's numbers will be fine, but they won't match his hefty price tag.

Allen Robinson, WR, Jaguars

The Jaguars had the 31st-ranked scoring defense (28.0 points per game allowed) and the sixth-worst rushing offense (92.1 yards per game) in 2015, a combination that resulted in 606 Blake Bortles throws. More than 25 percent of those went in the direction of Allen Robinson. An influx of defensive playmakers and the signing of Chris Ivory, however, will result in tighter games and a more balanced offense, meaning fewer opportunities for a receiver who relied on big plays to produce top-10 fantasy numbers. A decrease from his league-leading 31 grabs of 20-plus will contribute to a tumble from the top 10.

Andrew Laird

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys

With many focused on the positives for Elliott (prolific college numbers, best offensive line in the NFL, high-powered offense), he's being pushed into the first round of fantasy drafts. However, replicating DeMarco Murray's 2014 season is way too aggressive, as it took 392 carries to finish one fantasy point per game better than the second-best running back. Elliott would have to get nearly every carry for the Cowboys this season to justify that upside, something that could be tough given Alfred Morris and Darren McFadden's presence on the roster.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Texans

Hopkins was a target machine in the first half of last season, getting 112 in the first eight games. However, he wasn't nearly as popular after the Texans' Week 9 bye, with 80 in the final eight games - still high, but a significant drop. The Texans added a number of key offensive pieces in the offseason, including quarterback Brock Osweiler and running back Lamar Miller. While that could open more space for Hopkins, he may find it tough to get as many targets, particularly from in close given Miller's success near the goal line.

Davis Mattek

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks

As much as the Seahawks would love for Baldwin to convert more than 40 percent of his red-zone targets into touchdowns in 2016 (the way he did in 2015), it is incredibly unlikely to happen. Baldwin had a great fantasy season based off beating his career red-zone conversion percentage, scoring 14 touchdowns on only 103 targets. The correct way to arbitrage the Seahawks wide receiver situation is to take the discount on Lockett's increased volume and the expected dip in touchdown production for Baldwin. Being drafted as a top-20 WR doesn't properly account for his floor.

Todd Gurley, RB, Rams

I am most definitely NOT saying that Todd Gurley is going to finish well outside of the top-20 running backs or that taking him in the first round is an inherently bad move. However, he is being drafted as the No. 1 overall RB by cumulative ADP across several draft services. Gurley still plays for the Rams, who scored the fourth fewest points in the NFL last season, have a rookie QB and failed to make the necessary upgrades to become even a league-average offense. David Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott and Jamaal Charles make more sense in PPR formats than Gurley, who had only 26 targets in 13 games last season.

This article appears in the 2016 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine.