Survivor: Surviving Week 1

Usually in Week 1 I get into a long strategy lecture, explaining the optimal way to play Survivor and how surprisingly complex this seemingly simple game is. Fortunately, I covered that in the RotoWire magazine, the online version of which is posted here. Please read this in full and understand it - it's more important than my specific picks, and it'll save us a lot of misunderstandings in the comment section.

Normally, I dread Week 1 because there are often no major favorites, which means no obvious choice and no obvious "pot odds" play. That means I'm charged with picking among mediocre options, hoping not to recommend a loser that wipes people out of their pools before we even get started. But this year is different with Seattle favored over the Dolphins by a substantially bigger margin than any other favorite-underdog spread. That meant it was either an easy call - take the chalk and hope there's no major upset - or a huge opportunity - fade the herd that's on the Seahawks and cash in big if they lose. Judging by the "polling numbers" it looks like the former:

The Seahawks, according to Vegas, have an 83 percent chance to win. The second biggest favorite, the Chiefs, are at 74 percent. If we take the ratio of a Seahawks win/Chiefs loss 83*26 = 21.58% to a Chiefs win/Seahawks loss 74*17 = 12.58%, we get roughly 1.72. That's your increased risk in taking Kansas City instead of Seattle.

Now let's take a look at the reward:

If the Seahawks lose the the Chiefs win, 36 percent of your pool is gone. If we use a 100-person, $10-entry fee pool as an example, that means there would be 64 people left. But another 15 are expected to lose on other teams, bringing the remaining number of survivors to 49. $1000/49 = $20.41. That means your initial $10 would be worth $20.41 in that case.

If the Chiefs lose and Seahawks win, 16 would go down with the Chiefs, plus 15 more on other teams, leaving 69 still alive. $1000/69 = $14.49.

So the reward ratio is 20.41/14.49 = 1.41.

As you can see the risk in taking the Chiefs is 1.72 times as great, but your reward is only 1.41 times better. And the math for the other teams is even worse. So chalk it is.

Of course, if you disagree with Vegas' numbers or have reason to think the ownership levels in your pool will diverge significantly from the polling data, please disregard this analysis.

My Picks

1. Seattle Seahawks

They're the biggest favorite, and they're not even that heavily owned. The Dolphins aren't doormats, and Adam Gase is likely to be a coaching upgrade over Joe Philbin/Dan Campbell, but Seattle is the toughest venue in the league and is top-tier on both sides of the ball. I give the Seahawks an 85 percent chance to win this game.

Notable Omissions:

Kansas City Chiefs - With Justin Houston out, Jamaal Charles and Tamba Hali iffy and Eric Berry having missed most of camp due to a holdout, I'm not confident this is anything close to the peak Chiefs.

Houston Texans - Brock Osweiler looked good in the preseason, but we're talking about a team with a new QB, who's never done anything in the league, two rookie WR and a new RB facing a team that returns most of its key pieces intact. Moreover, even if J.J. Watt plays, he's missed the entire preseason due to back surgery.

Arizona Cardinals - Remember the Patriots went 11-5 with Matt Cassel the year Tom Brady tore his ACL. The Cardinals would probably be my second choice, but with their WR banged up, and Carson Palmer having a shaky preseason, I'm not especially confident.

Philadelphia Eagles - Hard to count on Carson Wentz in his first start or Doug Pederson in his first game as a head coach.

Green Bay Packers - I kept waiting for them to be good all last year. Maybe Jordy Nelson is the greatest player of all time, but even so, this is a road game against a likely improved Jaguars team.