This article is part of our Red Zone Watch series.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills scored three red-zone touchdowns Sunday against the Rams, all of which came from inside the 10-yard line. Unfortunately for fantasy owners of LeSean McCoy, he was left out of the fun, as Mike Gillislee ran in a five-yard score, while Tyrod Taylor threw for two short touchdowns, a four-yarder to Justin Hunter and a six-yarder to Marquise Goodwin. Gillislee's run came immediately after McCoy scampered for 53 yards, so it's understandable that he was pulled to get a little breather afterward. Had Gillislee not scored, it seems entirely plausible that McCoy could have gone back in to finish the job. However, the two touchdown passes had to be a surprise, as the Bills had passed on just two of 11 plays inside the 10-yard line heading into Sunday, with their 81.82 percent rushing rate inside the 10-yard line the highest in the NFL. Their split was an even 3-3 on Sunday, and given their success overall with that distribution, it may behoove them to continue the trend.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins' offense has been particularly poor this season, especially the backfield, as Arian Foster continues to sit out with a hamstring injury and the other backs have simply failed to get much going. It appeared as if things may change Sunday against the Ravens when Jay Ajayi scored on a four-yard run in the second quarter for his first TD of the season, but there was ultimately little to be encouraged about after that.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills scored three red-zone touchdowns Sunday against the Rams, all of which came from inside the 10-yard line. Unfortunately for fantasy owners of LeSean McCoy, he was left out of the fun, as Mike Gillislee ran in a five-yard score, while Tyrod Taylor threw for two short touchdowns, a four-yarder to Justin Hunter and a six-yarder to Marquise Goodwin. Gillislee's run came immediately after McCoy scampered for 53 yards, so it's understandable that he was pulled to get a little breather afterward. Had Gillislee not scored, it seems entirely plausible that McCoy could have gone back in to finish the job. However, the two touchdown passes had to be a surprise, as the Bills had passed on just two of 11 plays inside the 10-yard line heading into Sunday, with their 81.82 percent rushing rate inside the 10-yard line the highest in the NFL. Their split was an even 3-3 on Sunday, and given their success overall with that distribution, it may behoove them to continue the trend.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins' offense has been particularly poor this season, especially the backfield, as Arian Foster continues to sit out with a hamstring injury and the other backs have simply failed to get much going. It appeared as if things may change Sunday against the Ravens when Jay Ajayi scored on a four-yard run in the second quarter for his first TD of the season, but there was ultimately little to be encouraged about after that. Ajayi's run was the Dolphins' second red-zone rushing touchdown of the season, with the first coming back in Week 1 against the Seahawks. Making things worse for the backfield, quarterback Ryan Tannehill actually ran that one in. While it looks like Ajayi may get the goal-line work while Foster is out, there's little optimism that the Dolphins will actually get that close to the end zone on a consistent basis to make it matter.
Minnesota Vikings
The injury absence to Adrian Peterson appeared to make Jerick McKinnon the starting running back, but anyone who grabbed him in their fantasy leagues knew that when the Vikings got close to the goal line, they would likely turn to Matt Asiata to finish the job. Well, that's exactly what happened Sunday against the Texans, as McKinnon racked up 19 yards on the Vikings' second drive of the game, only to come out and watch Asiata bang home a one-yard touchdown to put the Vikings up 14-0 in the second quarter. Now, it's worth noting that McKinnon was given a carry at the two-yard line, but he could only make it one yard before Asiata came in to finish the job. Asiata was stuffed on his first attempt, but a face mask penalty gave him a shot from even closer, and he delivered. McKinnon's attempt from in close was his second in as many weeks, but it still looks like Asiata will be the more successful near the goal line, capping the former's fantasy upside.
Philadelphia Eagles
After rushing 75 percent of the time inside the 10-yard line in their first three games, the Eagles finally decided to let rookie quarterback Carson Wentz throw the ball in close, and the plan was a success, as he threw two one-yard touchdown passes Sunday against the Lions, connecting with running back Ryan Mathews and and wideout Josh Huff. Mathews' inclusion is a bit surprising given that he caught 20 passes all of last year (including just one in the red zone) while getting just one target this year. Mathews has a stronghold on the goal-line carries, if they come, and if he can make himself a viable threat in the passing game from that distance, his fantasy upside will enjoy a small boost.
San Diego Chargers
Melvin Gordon leads the NFL in red-zone carries (24), and while he got four of them Sunday against the Raiders, none were inside the five-yard line. While that normally wouldn't be too bad of a situation, it certainly wasn't good (for his fantasy owners) that quarterback Philip Rivers threw two touchdown passes from that area, including a one-yard score for tight end Hunter Henry, and then a four-yarder to Antonio Gates later in the game. Gordon did have an 18-yard touchdown reception of his own, but it's unlikely he becomes a viable receiver in the red zone (the target was his only one of the game). Gordon now has seven touchdowns on the season, but he continues to be terribly inefficient with his carries, and if the Chargers continue having success throwing the ball in close, Gordon's fantasy value will take a huge hit.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback Marcus Mariota scored on a five-yard run during Sunday's win over the Dolphins, and while a running QB always puts an inkling of doubt into a running back's opportunities to score touchdowns, it's worth noting that DeMarco Murray has still gotten every carry this season inside the five, and he continues to dominate the touches out of the backfield all over the field. Mariota is certainly an option when the Titans get in close, but specifically near the goal line (one-yard out), Murray appears to be the safest option, both for the team and fantasy owners.
