• Barring a more significant sort of misfortune, the worst-case scenario for Joe Mixon's fantasy owners is simply one where the Bengals can win without him. I have no doubt that Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard have their respective utilities, and I don't doubt that coach Marvin Lewis might have an affinity for his two veteran backs, but I do doubt that Lewis is confident enough in his job security to keep Mixon on the sideline if Cincinnati isn't winning.
I have to consider it a positive for Mixon, then, that the Bengals start off the year against the Ravens, Texans, and Packers. That's a perennially well-coached divisional rival, the favorite for the AFC South, and the favorite for the NFC North in the first three weeks. It's a stretch in which it'd be easy to go 0-3 if you're not using your best players.
Without diminishing the threats that Hill and Bernard are to Mixon's workload – Mixon's third and fourth-round ADP mean he could both have a successful rookie season and one that disappoints his fantasy owners – the simple fact is that Hill and Bernard are both inferior to Mixon in every traditional running back function aside from, maybe, pass blocking. Mixon is faster and quicker than both. He breaks more tackles than Hill, and he's more dangerous as a receiver than Bernard. Even as ostensible specialists as power and pass-catching backs, respectively, Hill and Bernard offer no actual advantages over Mixon.
Lewis might not be
• Barring a more significant sort of misfortune, the worst-case scenario for Joe Mixon's fantasy owners is simply one where the Bengals can win without him. I have no doubt that Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard have their respective utilities, and I don't doubt that coach Marvin Lewis might have an affinity for his two veteran backs, but I do doubt that Lewis is confident enough in his job security to keep Mixon on the sideline if Cincinnati isn't winning.
I have to consider it a positive for Mixon, then, that the Bengals start off the year against the Ravens, Texans, and Packers. That's a perennially well-coached divisional rival, the favorite for the AFC South, and the favorite for the NFC North in the first three weeks. It's a stretch in which it'd be easy to go 0-3 if you're not using your best players.
Without diminishing the threats that Hill and Bernard are to Mixon's workload – Mixon's third and fourth-round ADP mean he could both have a successful rookie season and one that disappoints his fantasy owners – the simple fact is that Hill and Bernard are both inferior to Mixon in every traditional running back function aside from, maybe, pass blocking. Mixon is faster and quicker than both. He breaks more tackles than Hill, and he's more dangerous as a receiver than Bernard. Even as ostensible specialists as power and pass-catching backs, respectively, Hill and Bernard offer no actual advantages over Mixon.
Lewis might not be acutely aware of these things at the moment, but a sluggish, smashmouth game against the Ravens is the perfect setting for him to grasp the contrasts between these three players. Hill and Bernard can produce in certain contexts, but high-stakes contests against good defenses are among the least likely. In five career games against the Ravens, Hill has 182 yards and one touchdown on 54 carries (3.4 YPC). Bernard has 76 carries for 258 yards (3.4 YPC) in six games, and 25 catches for 198 yards otherwise.
Mixon might not run wild in the same settings – the Ravens defense typically doesn't allow such things – but he likely would have done significantly more than what Hill and Bernard have, regardless of specifics. If the Bengals' Week 1 matchup with Baltimore plays out like the others have, then there's a good chance that Cincinnati heads into the third quarter in desperate need of backfield production, and two options already exhausted. If Mixon gets his shot – a real shot – it's a wrap. Once he displays what he's capable of, he becomes a foundational piece of the offense. The comparison I keep going back to is Ahman Green, and I really believe that, like Green, Mixon's peak will involve at least one season with 2,000 yards from scrimmage.
• Carlos Hyde's injury background and the John Lynch regime's apparent skepticism toward the fourth-year back made rookie fourth-round pick Joe Williams an interesting sleeper heading into the summer, but it was another rookie runner who emerged as the top backup to Hyde, even before Williams landed on IR with an ankle injury.
Matt Breida always had a good case for being a better prospect than Williams, even though Breida went undrafted. Breida (5-foot-9, 195 pounds) was timed at 4.39 seconds in the 40-yard dash at the Georgia Southern pro day, adding a 42-inch vertical, 134-inch broad jump, and 11.19 agility score. A small back he may be, but that kind of athleticism makes it easy to look past his slight build. Williams is of course a fine athlete himself, as he posted a 4.41-second 40-yard dash at the Combine at 5-foot-11, 210 pounds, but Breida's production profile is arguably more encouraging.
The two runners had opposite trajectories in their college careers, with Breida starting fast and finishing slow, and Williams resurfacing after a dismissal from one school, and a benching and consequent retirement at another, to post huge numbers as a senior. But the scales of these respective eras need accounting for, and the advantage tilts toward Breida once it's done.
Breida's bad stretch, in which he totaled 646 yards and three touchdowns on 168 carries (3.8 YPC) occurred in 12 games. There's likely more insight to be found in the 25 preceding games, when Breida torched defenses for 3,094 yards and 34 touchdowns on just 374 carries (8.3 YPC). By contrast, Williams' strong stretch was literally just seven games – he totaled 1,332 yards (7.1 YPC) and 10 touchdowns on just 188 carries (7.1 YPC) – but before that posted just 552 yards and three touchdowns (4.4 YPC) over 12 games at Utah, and just six yards on three carries in his one year with Connecticut. Williams' production generally carries an asterisk because of his advanced age, too. He just turned 24 on Sept. 4, whereas Breida won't turn 23 until Feb. 28. It also must be noted that Breida's one bad year occurred after Georgia Southern lost coach Willie Fritz to Tulane, replacing him with a coach who unsuccessfully tried to run Fritz's system despite never coaching it previously.
In conclusion, anyone who looked to Williams as a chance to capitalize on the San Francisco backfield should grade Breida as an almost identically sound investment. We're talking a long shot here generally, but Breida matches or exceeds Williams' raw athletic talent, and certainly outpaces him with regard to age-adjusted production. If Hyde gets hurt, there's reason think Breida would provide mainstream fantasy value.
• Jonathan Williams was one of my favorite prospects among backup NFL runners, and as of a few days ago he was supposed to be the top backup to LeSean McCoy, whose career workload and consecutive years of knee and hamstring troubles made the question of his backup one of significant fantasy interest. Then the Bills cut Williams and he went unclaimed on waivers. I have no idea why. The Broncos quite notably added him to their practice squad, but I'm still surprised he wasn't claimed. His talent and production would normally dictate not just a roster spot, but an easy projection to the previously mentioned top backup role.
Williams (5-foot-11, 220 pounds) entered the league with strong grades for his production – 2,321 yards (5.7 YPC) and 16 touchdowns plus 26 receptions for 345 yards and six touchdowns at Arkansas – and his film, where he showed a natural running back lean and quick feet with the ability to seamlessly transfer between anchor strength and explosion with good balance. His workout metrics were less strong but still adequate, posting a 4.63-second pro day 40 coming off a season-ending foot issue. The whole of his prospect profile implied a player with fringe starting-level upside, and at least strong backup prospects otherwise. His release doesn't add up at a glance.
Given the extent to which a number of clearly inferior running backs have otherwise been given opportunities that currently elude Williams, I'd have to guess there's something outside of Williams' talent that was considered by the Bills and the 31 teams that declined to claim him on waivers. Perhaps it's related to that foot injury he suffered at Arkansas, or perhaps the DWI arrest from July of 2016, for which he was eventually found not guilty, portended a general theme of problematic character.
With all that said, I think Williams is clearly the second-most talented Broncos runner behind Jamaal Charles, so I'll be buying if he gets called up to the active roster, especially given the durability issues of Charles and C.J. Anderson.
• The Rams defense had the look of a nice fantasy sleeper going into this year, as the great Wade Phillips quietly left Denver for the west coast, where his newly inherited defense had more raw talent than the general narrative surrounding the Rams otherwise let on. But the by far best player among that personnel, defensive tackle Aaron Donald, appears increasingly at risk of missing time with a holdout.
Donald's rookie contract pays him about $9 million in salary over the next two years. He's worth something closer to $40 million over that span. With an almost impossible combination of speed, strength, motor, and leverage, Donald is built like a rock but shoots out of his stance like a full-speed battering ram. There's been no indication of progress in the negotiations that have occurred all offseason, and at this point it's looking like Donald could miss regular season time.
If Donald does miss games, it reduces the Rams from a potential top-10 defense to one that's merely occasionally viable as a matchup-dependent streamer. There's every reason to think he'll be regarded as one of the top defenders over a span of decades, let alone the short term. With Donald present, Phillips would likely cook up an at least above average pass rush, but without Donald, it's possible that remaining top contributors Robert Quinn, Alec Ogletree, Michael Brockers, and Connor Barwin would prove insufficient for a similar outcome.
• I've seen some chatter about Chicago rookie fourth-round pick Tarik Cohen as a fantasy sleeper, particularly in PPR formats, but I'm just not able to buy into it outside of perhaps 16-team leagues. A useful clarity from the outset is the fact that Cohen will not be a feature back – his best-case scenario is one where he's a situational player whose production exceeds his comparable peers. Even in this best-case scenario, we're probably talking depth utility and only in PPR formats.
Cohen could emerge as a Darren Sproles-like exception in such a role, proving so uniquely elusive that he establishes himself a regular flex option in PPR due to an incomparable skill set that allows him to exceed his physical traits. But his physical traits otherwise clearly state that the odds are very much against him. At 5-foot-6, 179 pounds, Cohen would be the first of his kind if a Sproles-like outcome should occur – even Sproles arrived to the league at 187 pounds. It might seem like a trivial distinction, but nine pounds matters a lot on a 5-foot-6 frame.
Consider this season-finder sample from Pro-Football-Reference.com, which shows all past instances of NFL running backs under 180 pounds since 1975.
You'll notice that only two players since 1975 accumulated 900 yards from scrimmage at under 180 pounds. Joe Montgomery did it five times at a listed 5-foot-10, 179 pounds. Lionel James did it once at 5-foot-6, 171 pounds. Both players did all of this between 1979 and 1985. The NFL is much bigger and faster now. I don't think Cohen's odds of emulating James' already improbable 1985 season, when he totaled 87 receptions for 1,027 yards and six touchdowns, have improved with time. It bears noting that the Chargers threw for 4,870 yards and 37 touchdowns that year. I'm assuming we expect less from Chicago this year.
Nothing I've said here rules out the possibility of Cohen proving to be the next Sproles or James. But he doesn't have Sproles' build, and even James had just one season in the sun, in an era not comparable to this one. I'd rather try my luck with Breida, Williams, Zach Zenner, or Javorius Allen with my final pick.
