Week 3 may have been the most boom-or-bust week Iíve seen in DFS with loads of lesser-used players (Stefon Diggs, Jordan Howard, T.Y. Hilton) going off, while heavily-used ones were stuck in the mud (anyone on the Raiders, Jay Ajayi, Travis Kelce). The goal in daily fantasy is to not get stuck in the mud and thatís what I ran into with Ajayi and Michael Crabtree last week. It may also have been the last time I ever use two tight ends in this format, although Iíll probably change my stance on it next week.
Andy Dalton, CIN at CLE ($10,900): I swear this isnít a joke. I put Kirk Cousins in this spot last week, so maybe that earned me some trust. Yes, the Bengals and Dalton have looked terrible through three weeks, but that has been partly due to playing some of the best defensive lines in the league. The Browns donít have one of those are were just torched by Jacoby Brissett and T.Y. Hilton. With Jamar Taylor and Jabrill Peppers getting significant time in the secondary, that should continue. If Dalton doesnít reach 20 fantasy points, Iíll never recommend a Bengal again.
Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. DET ($12,400): The Vikings are a much better team at home and that translates to Cookís fantasy value. While the Lions defense looks good from a fantasy perspective due to interceptions, they were gashed by Atlantaís ground game last week. Cook had 32 touches against the Bucs and 25 against the Saints in Week 1. Expect around 25 touches for him again, which is all you need at this price.
C.J. Anderson, DEN vs. OAK ($10,500): I realize Anderson did nothing against the Bills and Jamaal Charles finished with more carries, but Iím not buying that just yet. Similar to the Vikings offense, the Broncos are much better playing in front of home fans and that has a lot to do with mediocre quarterback play. While Anderson probably wonít reach the levels he had in Week 2, he should at least get the touches to produce against a beatable defense.
Odell Beckham Jr., NYG at TB ($16,700): Itís a great week to go big on receiver and OBJ is my top guy. The Giants canít move the chains unless they get the ball to Beckham, so expecting 10 targets isnít a bad prediction. He looks close to full health and should get a secondary that was torn apart by Stefon Diggs. Top corner Brent Grimes returned to practice this week, but Iím not sure heís a guy that can keep Beckham in check.
A.J. Green, CIN at CLE ($16,300): Live and die with the Bengals, right? In a must-win game, Green could see up to 15 targets against a secondary that has already been blown up by Hilton and Antonio Brown. This Browns defense remains a work-in-progress and Green should capitalize on that after 10 grabs last week against a better Packers defense.
Ryan Griffin, HOU vs. TEN ($6,900): Griffin is my favorite lower-priced tight end after he saw 86% of snaps last week with C.J. Fiedorowicz out. The Texans probably wonít pass as much as that game, but Griffin was a favorite of Deshaun Watson when he actually ran routes. At this price, all you want is five targets for Griffin and that should be good enough with a touchdown being a bonus.
Chris Carson, SEA vs. IND ($10,100): Carson only had 13 touches last week, but it was a weird game in which the Seahawks rarely had the lead. That will change against the Colts as Seattle may never be losing in this one. And with C.J. Prosise out with an ankle injury, that could mean more time for Carson, similar to when he had 20 carries against the 49ers in Week 2.
Rishard Matthews, TEN at HOU ($9,700): This may be my least favorite play in this lineup, but Matthews has picked up where he left last season, already with 14 catches and 201 yards. As a cheap receiver, thatís a good deal, especially against a secondary that has clearly dropped a level without A.J. Bouye at cornerback. In the two meetings against the Texans last year, Matthews had 11 catches for 196 yards and a touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. WAS ($6,000): The Redskins are feeling pretty good about themselves after beating the Raiders, but theyíve never been a team to put together good weeks at a consistent rate. Playing in one of the louder stadiums in the league, Cousins will run into some issues against a defense that has eight sacks in the last two games. Washington still doesnít have a good offensive line and thatís expected to come into play here.