Matchup Edge: Julio Breakout Ahead

Miami and New Orleans in London

Open: 50 O/U, PK
Press time: 50.5, NO -3

The Saints defense probably isn't any better – Cam Newton just can't throw right now. Then again, Jay Cutler couldn't get anything going against the Jets, and their defense probably isn't good. The travel variable opens up the possibility of many different strange outcomes, so perhaps it's not worth sorting out too many specific details.

Coach Sean Payton left open the possibility that Willie Snead might see a limited workload in his return from a three-game suspension, but I'm not sure I'd want to leave a third-year wideout with a career YPT of 9.2 over 205 targets sit on the sideline when the next best options are Brandon Coleman and Tommylee Lewis. Snead is questionable with a hamstring issue, though. Snead's playing time shouldn't affect much for Michael Thomas, who probably overmatches any Miami corner of note. The Dolphins have allowed 15 receptions to tight ends in two games, but Coby Fleener played behind both Josh Hill and Michael Hoomanawanui the last two weeks.

There's no reason to evaluate Drew Brees differently than you would most weeks, but the Dolphins pass defense generally looks beatable. Playing against Josh McCown and a weird-looking Philip Rivers, the Dolphins have allowed a 9.4 YPT and completion percentage of 79 percent. The two touchdowns they've allowed through the air could triple by the end of this one if they don't tighten up against Brees.

It feels like Mark Ingram has to have a nice game one of these days, and this setting intrigues me. He seemed to establish himself as the team's clear top runner when New Orleans has the lead, getting 14 carries and four targets in their easy win against Carolina last week, and he has four carries and two targets in the red zone through three games. Alvin Kamara will always have a dart-like projection where his playmaking ability makes him a candidate to score, but it will almost always have to be on low volume. Adrian Peterson is a vulture at most for now. The Dolphins have been tough against the run in their first two games after putting forth one of the league's worst run defenses in 2016.

Jay Ajayi's numbers against the Jets were miserable, but I thought he was running effectively. Against a Saints defense that's allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs through three weeks, Ajayi's talent should shine through more clearly.

It's usually a coin flip whether Jay Cutler is good or bad, and last week was bad. Perhaps the scheme dictated it somewhat – Jay has never been shy about gunslinging – but he just wouldn't move the ball downfield against the Jets. The timing didn't seem particularly tight, either. Even with top Saints corner Marshon Lattimore (concussion) expected back, Jay has no excuse for failing against a Saints defense that has allowed 977 yards and six touchdowns to quarterbacks in three games.

Lattimore seemed to shadow Brandin Cooks in his last game, and he impressed in doing so. Guessing whether he shadows DeVante Parker or Jarvis Landry, if either, isn't as easy since the question of which is Miami's top receiver is up to interpretation. I'd guess Parker, if only because Parker's athletic talent is greater than Landry's. I like whoever doesn't get Lattimore.

Dallas vs. Rams

Open: 46.5 O/U, DAL-8
Press time: 48.5 O/U, DAL -6

The Rams defense put up minimal resistance to Brian Hoyer, so Dak Prescott should stand tall at home after a game where he yawned his way to victory in a road game against a superior Arizona defense. Even if the Rams were merely guilty of looking ahead a week, and even if the extra rest manifests in the box score some way, it's hard to see Dak failing here. The run-heavy ambitions of the Dallas offense tend to limit his upside from week to week, though.

Ezekiel Elliott gets a crack at a Rams defense that gave up 84 yards and two touchdowns to Carlos Hyde last week, and 78 yards on 12 carries to Rob Kelley the week prior. The Rams might come out fiery with the extra rest, but you have to expect Elliott's talent to wear them down if Dallas has the luxury of feeding him throughout the game.

Dez Bryant's poor efficiency to this point is something I'm entirely willing to chalk up to anomalous anecdotes and an otherwise consistently difficult schedule. This setting isn't much relief as far as that goes if he sees a lot of standout Rams corner Trumaine Johnson, but Dez's talent combined with his elite quarterback makes him a top candidate to have a hand in whatever touchdowns Dallas might score. Otherwise, Jason Witten is the only real intrigue among Dallas pass catchers.

Jared Goff has yet to go over 30 pass attempts per game, but it seems past time that Sean McVay take off the training wheels. It does take the next level of skill to maintain a certain level of effectiveness over a certain level of volume, but Goff couldn't have played much better than he has to this point. Against a Dallas defense lacking talent aside from Demarcus Lawrence, Sean Lee, and Byron Jones, it's time to see how Goff does with greater responsibility.

That's particularly true given Sammy Watkins' clearance from last week's concussion. With Watkins, Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and a couple athletic tight ends at his disposal, Goff should be able to handle the volume. Almost no one anywhere can cover Watkins, so Dallas certainly wouldn't scare me away from him. His inconsistent usage is a more valid concern, but his Thursday breakout is the kind of showing that makes coaches change their plans.

Todd Gurley is locked in as an elite asset in any context, and his prolific pass catching to this point makes him a top option in both cash and tournament contests in DFS.

Jets vs. Jacksonville

Open: 40 O/U, JAC -4.5
Press time: 38.5 O/U, JAC -3

Bilal Powell should get his first big workload of the season with Matt Forte (turf toe) out, and his projected usage gives him mainstream flex viability in season-long leagues at least. But even after a meaningless fumble late last week, rookie sixth-round pick Elijah McGuire figures to get his own share of the action. There' s a good chance he's the better player, and he has major pass-catching skills he hasn't shown yet.

Robby Anderson and Jermaine Kearse are pretty much a no-go for me against Jacksonville's killer corners, and Josh McCown projects similarly poorly. BUT: Austin Seferian-Jenkins could see a target funnel as a result, and I'm intrigued by him a fair amount. I think he makes sense in tournaments and if you're dealing with tight end injuries in season long. He had six targets last week despite supposedly lacking conditioning in his return from suspension, and he's a former blue-chip recruit with clearly standout talent. One of his targets last week was inside the five-yard line as a wide receiver.

Leonard Fournette is an absolute beast and in a game where the Jets offense figures to struggle, I think this could be a breakout context for the rookie. Busy as a runner and pass catcher both, he should see short fields conducive to a multiple-touchdown outcome.

Blake Bortles is an all-star in London only. Marqise Lee and Allen Hurns could still have some marginal utility against a Jets defense with rookie safeties, but like most weeks I'd rather stay away if possible.

Minnesota vs. Detroit

Open: 43.5 O/U, MIN -1
Press time: 42.5 O/U, MIN -2.5

Case Keenum had a couple brilliant games before last week, and crashed back to earth not long afterward in each instance. For some reason, I'm belligerently optimistic about his chances of sustaining his success in Minnesota. He looked so good last week, hitting deep targets with pinpoint precision even most of the best quarterbacks can't hit. His velocity lags and he might get exposed if defenses sit on the deep ball, but with such good receivers as Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs, I'm not sure how it works any better for defenses if they give up big cushions. Because I think the Vikings should be able to move the ball through the air, I also like Kyle Rudolph when or if they get into scoring range.

Dalvin Cook is already close to an elite running back. After looking indecisive in Week 1, Cook's tape against the Buccaneers last week looked a lot like his film from Florida State, where he was absolutely one of the best running backs I've ever seen. Detroit will make him their top concern, but I can't see how the matchup is as tough as Tampa Bay was, and Cook chopped them up.

Matthew Stafford was somewhat exposed against the Falcons, reminding of his brutal record against teams with a winning record. The Vikings, ahem, look like a team that might have a winning record. And even if they don't, their defense is tough. It seems unlikely that Xavier Rhodes would follow Golden Tate to the slot, if only because it probably wouldn't work. So he might shadow Marvin Jones outside, or he might play stationary if the Vikings don't consider Jones a substantially greater threat than Kenny Golladay. I'm in any case off of Jones, whereas I think Tate projects relatively fine despite the tough projection for his overall offense.

Ameer Abdullah is the No. 1 and No. 2 ballcarrier for Detroit, and he has some talent to work with. However, the Vikings have been the toughest defense on running backs to this point, allowing barely over three yards per carry.

Atlanta vs. Buffalo

Open: 49 O/U, ATL -9
Press time: 48.5 O/U, ATL -8

Something immediately jumps out with this matchup – the Falcons defense has funneled 37 targets to opposing running backs in three games. They defended those targets well, allowing just 218 yards, but LeSean McCoy is a different category entirely. On turf, against a defense that pushed targets to the running back through three games, I love McCoy in this one. Even if he's not particularly explosive, the volume should be big. And I like his chances of exploding, too.

Tyrod Taylor makes some sense in DFS tournaments and somewhat desperate season-long scenarios. He's just an awesome runner, and he should see plenty of volume in a matchup with an Atlanta team that has prompted more pass attempts than any team through three games. There's always the chance he breaks a long run or two, also. Jordan Matthews would be my favorite receiver to target in Buffalo – he's been floating around 10 yards per target despite modest target volume. Charles Clay is certainly in play.

You don't like this matchup much for Devonta Freeman or Tevin Coleman, but they're both so good and in such an effective offense that you don't let it change your view a whole lot.

If the Buffalo run defense can stall Freeman and Coleman at all, I love this setting for a Matt Ryan (and Julio Jones) breakout game. The Buffalo run defense has impressed so far, and its pass defense has good metrics through three games. I'm not buying the pass defense metrics. This secondary lacks talent, and its particular way of lacking talent – size and speed – sets up Jones for a scenario of both monstrous volume and explosivenes.

As you can tell, I'm going very heavy on McCoy and Jones in DFS this week.

Cleveland vs. Cincinnati

Open: 40 O/U, CIN -2.5
Press time: 41.5 O/U, CIN -3

No one can cover A.J. Green, and the Browns haven't been able to cover anyone in particular so far. They've allowed over 10 yards per target to receivers, and Green is a different breed than most of what they've seen. Andy Dalton might struggle, but it's hard to see Green falling flat in this one. Brandon LaFell has some viability as a dart, too.

Joe Mixon should get some volume in this one, and his talent can't be denied. It's a tough matchup, though – the Browns have allowed just 251 yards on 74 carries to opposing running backs. He'll probably need a touchdown or two to provide standout value. Gio Bernard is the next most capable in the Cincinnati backfield.

DeShone Kizer should have his day soon enough, and his running skills elevate his floor a great deal, but the Cincinnati pass defense seems vaguely competent. A matchup with an ill-prepared Deshaun Watson factors into those numbers, but it's difficult to write off all the same. Kenny Britt would be the only Cleveland wideout I bother with – he had 10 targets last week, and for all his struggles so far, he remains an imposing athlete.

The Bengals have allowed just 297 yards and a touchdown to opposing running backs on 84 carries, so it's hard to see Isaiah Crowell generating a lot of yardage from scrimmage in this. A scoring possibility seems at least plausible, though, given Dalton's propensity for failure so far. Duke Johnson is a beast and Cleveland should get him the ball more as a runner. At the very least, he'll get some targets, including some downfield.

New England vs. Carolina

Open: 47.5 O/U, NE -9
Press time: 49.5 O/U, NE -9

The general rule is that you can't run on Carolina when Luke Kuechly and the Carolina defensive tackle rotation are healthy, and such is the case in this contest. If the Panthers shut down the run, it should create a funnel for the passing game, which would bode well for Tom Brady if you believe the over/under and spread will otherwise hold up. I do. So I'm very high on Brady and his pass catchers.

Brandin Cooks hasn't seen usage proportionate to his effectiveness, so I think this is a fine setting for him to dominate. If he doesn't (and even if he does), Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola look like fine bets to me. Gronk is infallible despite the potential Kuechly coverage.

James White figures to get tough coverage regardless of whether Kuechly trails Gronkowski, but he's good enough and the volume might be such that the matchup problems are overruled. I wouldn't worry about rolling him out in PPR, and I think there's tournament appeal in DFS. Mike Gillislee has a brutal matchup from a yardage standpoint, but you wouldn't be surprised to see him finish this game with 50 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries.

The New England defense is, by any account, awful. Garbage. But Cam Newton's shoulder is clearly not right, and his inability to do anything against New Orleans is an emphatic message that you can't presume he'll take advantage of any particular matchup. Maybe this is the week he turns the corner, but I'm not wagering on that.

Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey should both do well with whatever volume they get. Particularly in the former's case, the volume is a concern. It's hard to see Stewart getting many carries if New England has a big lead, yet a big lead for New England seems likely. McCaffrey, by contrast, could still thrive in such a setting since he might be Carolina's best receiver.

Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh

Open: 45 O/U, PIT -2.5
Press time: 42.5 O/U, PIT -3

Ben Roethlisberger has been awful through three weeks, so heading to Baltimore looks like a disaster recipe to me. Antonio Brown transcends and can't be doubted, but this might be one of those games where Roethlisberger throws for 125 yards and Brown catches 110 of them. Martavis Bryant's talent is remarkable, but I don't see room for him to produce in this one.

Le'Veon Bell maintains a fine projection because the Baltimore offense should be awful, leaving Pittsburgh with ample possession time and favorable field position. I think he makes sense in all DFS contexts, though touchdowns will likely need to carry his value.

For Baltimore, you'd ideally be able to avoid any and all. Terrance West's theoretical value is harmed by Alex Collins, and it's hard to see Javorius Allen getting much going as a pass catcher. Did you see Joe Flacco last week? The receivers can hardly expect to so much as get their hands on the ball.

And yet, I somehow like Baltimore's chances of winning. I like their defense a lot this week.

Houston vs. Tennessee

Open: 44 O/U, TEN -2.5
Press time: 43.5 O/U, TEN -2.5

Marcus Mariota has yet to have a breakout game in 2017, and unfortunately this setting doesn't seem conducive to breaking that streak. He'll be without Corey Davis again, and the Houston pass defense has generally looked competent when not playing Tom Brady in Foxborough.

Still, Rishard Matthews is in position for a strong season as the team's top receiver, and I wouldn't let this matchup dissuade me from using him in season-long formats or DFS tournaments. Eric Decker was effective last week, but his volume hasn't been there so far. I love Taywan Taylor, but the rookie will be hard-pressed to break out in the slot with Matthews and Decker around. Delanie Walker is worth using as you would normally, though rookie Jonnu Smith vultured touchdowns in each of the last two weeks.

DeMarco Murray is the clear lead back for the Titans, so any Derrick Henry breakout will have to occur after a Murray injury or in spite of the low volume in the meantime. The Houston defense is allowing under four yards per carry to running backs, so Murray or Henry might need favorable field positioning to find the end zone.

Whether they find favorable field positioning comes down to the play of Deshaun Watson, who presents a wide range of outcomes. He showed a lot of strong progress against New England last week, yet persisted with some other problematic aspects. Luckily for him, the Tennessee pass defense is bad. At home and against a bad pass defense, Watson's owners can't ask for much more, even though the returns are far from guaranteed.

Even if Watson falters, DeAndre Hopkins should get something going in this one. A high ceiling is unlikely, but a goose egg would be extremely disappointing. Ryan Griffin has something going at tight end, but otherwise it'd probably be best to stay away from here despite the return of the blazing fast Wil Fuller.

Lamar Miller and D'Onta Foreman both look like above average running backs to me, but the Tennessee run defense has been very good dating back to last year. Either is a fine candidate to score if Houston does so on the ground, but big yardage from scrimmage seems unlikely.

Chargers vs. Philadelphia

Open: 46.5 O/U, PHI -1
Press time: 47.5 O/U, LAC -2.5

Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox is out, depriving Philadelphia of its best player. Cornerback Ronald Darby also might be out. Philip Rivers looks bad right now, but he catches a defense with thin secondary personnel and a compromised pass rush. If he can't get going in this one, he might be over the hill.

Keenan Allen looks locked into a fine game, as even against a tough pass rush Rivers would be able to hit him from the slot. But he should have time to get open in this, and Rivers should be able to hit him when it happens. Tyrell Williams hasn't gotten much going so far, but he too projects as a breakout candidate in a game where Philadelphia's poor defensive back personnel might get exposed without its pass rush to bail it out. Travis Benjamin is a well-established boom-or-bust option at this point.

Melvin Gordon was visibly limited by his knee issue last week, but he ran effectively all the same. He's in play in all scenarios against an Eagles defense without its best player, and he should get going as a pass catcher after offering nothing in that regard last week.

Tampa Bay vs. Giants

Open: 44 O/U, TB -4.5
Press time: 44.5 O/U, TB -3

Jameis Winston was okay against the Bears and barely better than bad against the Vikings, and now he catches a Giants defense that has allowed just 6.2 YPA through three games. He has two excellent receivers in Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson, the former of which figures to see a lot of the feared Janoris Jenkins, while the latter might face a more vulnerable Eli Apple in three-wide sets, where the also feared Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie mostly plays in the slot, presumably against Adam Humphries.

The dominant corner duo of DRC and Jenkins creates a natural inward funnel toward the tight end position, where the linebacker and safety personnel create another relative incentive to throw toward the tight end. Cameron Brate should provide some sort of decent return in this setting.

Jacquizz Rodgers probably can't run effectively against any particular defense, but the Giants are surprisingly allowing 4.3 yards per carry to opposing running backs so far. If Eli Manning turns the ball over, then Rodgers might get touches within scoring range. An impact as a receiver seems unlikely since the Giants have allowed just nine catches to running backs, though.

Against a Tampa Bay defense that Case Keenum just tore to shreds, Eli Manning has no excuse whatsoever for a letdown in this spot. Anyone other than Vernon Hargreaves is a liability at corner, but Hargreaves probably can't slow Odell Beckham. Sterling Shepard should get open against whoever he faces, while Evan Engram should prove too much for a linebacker rotation without the standout Lavonte David.

Paul Perkins is running so poorly for the Giants that I just don't think it matters who he plays against.

Arizona vs. San Francisco

Open: 44.5 O/U, ARZ -6
Press time: 44.5 O/U, ARZ -6.5

Even against a San Francisco defense that gave up 41 points to the Rams, I'm not taking much for granted with Carson Palmer these days. The good news is that Palmer has been particularly bad under pressure, but the 49ers pass rush has been weak through three games, totaling just three sacks.

If Palmer can remain upright and accurate, it should set up for a nice showing by Larry Fitzgerald and one of J.J. Nelson or Jaron Brown. The 49ers are allowing over eight yards per target to wide receivers through three weeks, and it's unlikely that the Cardinals will be able to consistently move the ball on the ground against a 49ers defense allowing just 3.8 yards per carry to running backs so far.

It looks like Chris Johnson will remain the starting running back for another week for Arizona, but Andre Ellington might be the Arizona running back to try your luck with, if any. His explosiveness is clearly superior to the other Arizona runners, and his ability as a receiver stood out last week as he turned eight targets into 55 yards.

Pierre Garcon figures to see a lot of Patrick Peterson in this one, but I think Garcon's owners in season-long leagues, at least in PPR scoring, shouldn't be overly intimidated. The Cardinals are allowing 8.8 yards per target to receivers so far, and Garcon has 10 targets in two of his three first games with the 49ers. I wouldn't bother with the other options, but Marquise Goodwin and Trent Taylor should see some opportunities against the weaker Arizona corners.

Carlos Hyde will reportedly be a game-time decision with a hip issue that limited him in practice all week, but he played through it a week ago. He gets a tough draw against the Arizona run defense, but I think he's exhibited a skill and usage level such that you don't let a tough matchup scare you away from him. He totaled 169 yards on 24 carries between the Panthers and Seahawks, and he has 12 catches over that span, too. If Palmer has a meltdown game, Hyde could find himself in scoring position on a short field.

Denver vs. Oakland

Open: 47 O/U, DEN -1
Press time: 46 O/U, DEN -3

You would think that Derek Carr's 118-yard, two-interception game from last week should go down as his worst game of the year, yet this game is the one you would have circled during the preseason as the most hostile matchup of the season. He almost has to improve from last week, but how much can he?

Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are unlikely to generate much separation against this Denver cornerback rotation, and their respective knee and chest tweaks can't help with that. Jared Cook split out wide might be the best way to generate a mismatch against these corners, but who knows how much time Carr will have to get it to any of these three.

Marshawn Lynch might be the best skill position bet to score for Oakland, yet this matchup might be the toughest one possible. Denver has allowed just 134 yards and no touchdowns to opposing running backs on 56 carries. If Siemian melts down, though, Lynch can definitely punch it in.

On the Denver side, it looks like a nice matchup for Siemian, whose wideout duo of Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas can get open against most defenses. I'm not sure it's as great of a matchup as it might look, though, because Kirk Cousins alone posted 365 of the 787 yards allowed through the air by Oakland, and a lot of that was just run-after-the-catch work by Chris Thompson.

Because it's a home game and his defense often secures short fields for the offense, C.J. Anderson should have a fine projection in this one. Again, though, the Raiders defense has been better than the general narrative might assume. They're allowing under four yards per carry and have yet to give up a rushing touchdown to running backs this year. The Denver defense might need to hold strong for Anderson's projection to remain intact.

Seattle vs. Indianapolis

Open: 41 O/U, SEA -12.5
Press time: 41.5 O/U, SEA -13

With Doug Baldwin (groin) a game-time decision, this spread seems a bit big to me, barring defensive touchdowns by Seattle. Russell Wilson's production last week was mostly in the second half – his offensive line was still crippling bad in the first – and Baldwin was an indispensable part of Wilson's success in that one.

If Baldwin is out, Tyler Lockett and Paul Richardson both get significant boosts, though it's not clear how well they might fare given the threat posed by the Seattle offensive line. The Colts pass defense has held Carson Palmer and DeShone Kizer in check the last two weeks, so it's not a complete pushover matchup. Jimmy Graham might be the pass catcher to benefit most from a Baldwin absence.

Chris Carson has a matchup with a Colts defense that's been tough against the run, but he was close to a workhorse role even before C.J. Prosise's ankle injury, and there's a chance he sees good field position as the Seahawks defense takes on Jacoby Brissett. Particularly with Prosise out, Carson should see a boost in his pass-catching work after a nice touchdown catch against Tennessee. He looks golden.

Brissett can break a lot of tackles, so if the Seahawks do generate pressure they need to make sure they finish the job, lest Brissett shake loose and generate yardage on broken plays. That's particularly true given that we know the Seahawks can't cover T.Y. Hilton, whose blurring speed and quickness on a small frame is the kryptonite of a Seattle cornerback crew who thrive on contact. Jack Doyle could see a number of checkdown targets in this one, but the odds of him getting far against a fast Seattle defense don't seem good.

Frank Gore wouldn't be a good bet to score three games in a row at any point, let alone when one of those three games is on the road against Seattle. The volume should be there, but scoring opportunities and certainly yardage may be more elusive.

Kansas City vs. Washington

Open: 49.5 O/U, KC -8
Press time: 49.5 O/U, KC -7

A Washington offensive line that was generally well-regarded heading into this year has not been good, be it in run blocking or pass. Flying that offensive line from D.C. to Arrowhead is generally the setup for a problematic script.

On the other hand, this is a great chance for Washington to get Terrelle Pryor going by having him run routes away from Marcus Peters and toward Terrance Mitchell, who's among the league's worst corners, starter or backup. Jamison Crowder has a fine enough matchup against Phillip Gaines in the slot, and Jordan Reed is always in play if he's on the field. I wouldn't speculate on Josh Doctson in this one, though I like him for the long term.

If you thought I thought Rob Kelley was bad, just wait till you see how bad I think he is when he has damaged ribs.

Kareem Hunt, on the other hand... Kareem Hunt is very good.

Tyreek Hill is also good. It remains to be seen how diverse his skill set is – he generally remains dependent on either broken coverage or broken tackles after the catch – but when you're as fast as he is both of things occur at much higher rates than for other players. Generally, though, I fear this Washington pass rush enough that I think Alex Smith doesn't get going in this one. You're still using Hill and Travis Kelce as you normally would, though, which is to say you're starting them.

(all line data from covers.com)