The Importance of Plus-Minus: Don't Waste an Early Pick on Mario
By Janet Eagleson
RotoWire Hockey Writer

Don’t look so shocked. If plus/minus is a factor in your pool, you should stay far away from Mario Lemieux until your draft is at least several rounds old.

That’s right, you heard it here first – selecting the man who has a career, 1.92 points-per-game average too early will curse your team faster than trading the Bambino. And we all know how that has affected the Red Sox.

Plus/minus is an often overlooked statistic on draft day. But those of us in leagues where the stat adds or deducts a point know all too well that it can make the difference between finishing in or out of the money at the end of the season.

Take, for example, my own pool last year. My team was populated with strong players but several were from middle-of-the-road teams. At the four-week point, I was stalled near the bottom of my 17-team league, with a league’s worst -25 rating. A few trades and a whole lot of farm moves later, I clawed myself back to finish fifth overall. Not bad, I thought, until I looked at the plus/minus. The -25 from week four was the difference between a handshake and a payout – I would have finished third had it not been for my early ignorance around plus/minus!

Let’s start with a quick refresher on plus/minus. I know most of you know this inside and out, but it will help those who don’t use it to see the complexity it adds. Players on the ice in even strength and shorthanded situations when their team scores a goal are ‘rewarded’ with a +1. Those on the ice in even strength or power-play situations when a goal is scored against them are ‘penalized’ with a -1.

Plus/minus stats generally penalize good players on bad teams. And that’s where the curse of Mario comes in. Lemieux was the single bright light in a rather dim Penguins season last year. He finished the year in eighth place in overall scoring, with 28 goals, 63 assists and 91 points. The tallies were good enough to rank him fourth overall in centres in the league.

Unfortunately, Mario was saddled with a dismal supporting cast, and he finished the year at -25. Suddenly, he dropped from fourth best centre to number 18! Take a look:

Centers (top scorers)

Centers (plus/minus factored in)

1. Forsberg, COL (106/+ 52/158)
2. Modano, DAL (85/+34/119)
3. Thornton, BOS (101/+12/113)
4. Federov, DET (83/+15/98)
5. Demitra, STL (93/even/93)
6. Morrison, VAN (71/+18/89)
7. Prospal, TAM (79/+8/87)
8. Lang, WAS (69/+12/81)
9. White, OTT (60/+19/79)
9 Roenick, PHI (59/+20/79)
11. Lecavalier, TAM (78/even/78)
12. Richards, TAM (74/+3/77)
13. Koivu, MTL (71/+5/76)
14. Sundin, TOR (72/+1/73)
14. Marchant, EDM (60/+13/73)
15. Gomez, NJ (55/+17/72)
15. Langkow, PHO (52/+20/72)
17. Datsyuk, DET (51/+20/71)
18. Lemieux, PIT (91/-25/66)
19. Cassels, CBJ (68/-4/64)

The biggest gainer on the list was Todd White of the Senators, who jumped from 16^th best centre to number 9. Other notables included Brendan Morrison of the Canucks (from 11 up to six) and Robert Lang (from 13 up to eight). And those who took Pavel Datsyuk as a sleeper pick last season were rewarded with a better outcome than those who took Lemieux! The difference? Almost all of these players benefited from playing on a good team.

The curse of Mario continued to wingers, where superstar Paul Kariya saw his position as 7^th best winger fall to 17. While Kariya was likely a high round pick in many pools, second-line sleeper Jere Lehtinen used his +39 (4^th best overall) to leap up the list to 9^th best winger in the league. And Alex Tanguay, who finished tied as the 19^th best scoring winger overall, rocketed all the way up to number four on the adjusted list. Remember that comment I made about playing on a good team? Take a look:

Wingers (top scorers)

1. Naslund, VAN (48/56/104)
2. Hejduk, COL (50/48/98)
3. Bertuzzi, VAN (46/51/97)
4. Murray, BOS (44/48/92)
5. Heatley, ATL (41/48/85)
6. Palffy, LA (37/48/85)
7. Kariya, ANA (25/56/81)
8. Hossa, OTT (45/35/80)
9. Mogilny, TOR (33/46/79)
9. Alfredsson, OTT (27/52/79)
11. Kovalev, PIT/NYR (37/40/77)
11. Jagr, WAS (36/41/77)
13. Hull, DET (37/39/76)
13. Whitney, CBJ (24/52/76)
15. Satan, BUF (26/49/75)
16. St-Louis. TAM (33/37/70)
16. Kozlov, ATL (21/49/70)
18. Shanahan, DET (30/38/68)
19. Iginla, CAL (35/32/67)
19. Tanguay, COL (26/41/67)
19. Stillman, STL (24/43/67)

Wingers (plus/minus factored in)

1. Hedjuk, COL (98/+52/150)
2. Naslund, VAN (104/+6/110)
3. Palffy, LA (85/+22/110)
4. Murray, BOS (92/+9/101)
4. Tanguay, COL (67/+34/101)
6. Bertuzzi, VAN (97/+2/99)
7. Alfredsson, OTT (79/+15/94)
8. Hossa, OTT (80/+8/88)
9. Hull, DET (78/+11/87)
9. Lehtinen, DAL (48/+39/87)
11. Mogilny, TOR (79/+4/83)
12. Jagr, WAS (77/+5/82)
13. Heatley, ATL (89/-8/81)
14. St-Louis, TAM (70/+10/80)
15. Stillman, STL (67/+12/79)
15. Havlat, OTT (59/+20/79)
17. Kariya, ANA (81/-3/78)
18. Gaborik, MIN (65/+12/77)
18. Knuble, BOS (59/+18/77)
20. Sullivan, CHI (61/+15/76)

The trend was repeated with defensemen. Neither Zdeno Chara of the Senators nor Derian Hatcher of the Stars (now the Red Wings) appeared on the top-15 scorers list, but leapt to 5^th and 7^th best blue-liners, respectively, when plus/minus was considered. Slipping off the list were Mattieu Schneider, Tom Poti and Jaroslav Spacek, all of whom spent most or all of their season on bad teams.

Defensemen (top scorers)

1. MacInnis, STL (16/52/68)
2. Gonchar, WAS (18/49/67)
3. Lidstrom, DET (18/44/62)
4. Zubov, DAL (11/44/55)
5. Boyle, TAM (13/40/53)
6. Schneider, LA/DET (16/34/50/+2)
7. Morris, COL (11/37/48)
7. Poti, NYR (11/37/48/-6)
9. Kaberle, TOR (11/36/47)
10. Jovanovski, VAN (6/40/46)
11. Blake, COL (17/28/45)
11. Redden, OTT (10/35/45)
11. Spacek, CBJ (9/36/45/-23)
11. Svehla, TOR (7/38/45)
15. Ozolinsh, FLA/ANA (12/32/44/-6)

Defensemen (plus/minus factored in)

1. Lidstrom, DET (62/+40/102)
2. MacInnis, STL (68/+22/90)
3. Gonchar, WAS (67/+13/80)
4. Zubov, DAL (55/+21/76)
5. Redden, OTT (45/+23/68)
5. Chara, OTT (39/+29/68)
7. Kaberle, TOR (47/+20/67)
7. Hatcher, DAL (30/+37/67)
9. Jovanovski, VAN (46/+19/65)
9. Blake, COL (45/+20/65)
11. Morris, COL (48/+16/64)
12. Boyle, TAM (53/+9/62)
12. Hamrlik, NYI (41/+21/62)
12. Niedermayer, NJ (39/+23/62)
12. Desjardins, PHI (32/+30/62)
16. Foote, COL (31/+30/61)

The moral of the story? Draft with your head instead of your heart! And use these simple rules to help improve your plus/minus:

1. Players on good teams will generally have stronger plus/minus stats than those on weaker teams. When in doubt, consider drafting a second-liner on a great team ahead of a superstar on a non-playoff team. (Remember the Curse of Mario)
2. Look for consistency, particularly with veterans. One great year of improvement surrounded by an average career is more than likely just a nice blip, not a new norm. This applies to plus/minus and points, alike. (Todd Marchant. Enough said?)
3. Defensive specialists who consistently hop the boards when the opponent’s best players are on the ice probably won’t see high plus/minus totals. (Think Bobby Holik, the $9 Million-Dollar-Man)
4. Skilled offensive players with defensive weaknesses or limitations who play on a good team are often given a break, as they won’t be matched up against the opposition’s best line. (Milan Hedjuk, who posted a +52 difference between the last two years, can be knocked off his game by big, powerful defenders)

Last, but not least, comes draft order. Goalies aside, what position do you pick first? In plus/minus situations, you may be surprised. If you subscribe to the thinking you should always take the player who will help you best, your first guy might just be a defenseman (gasp!):

Top Scorers Combined

1. Forsberg, COL - C
2. Naslund, VAN - W
3. Thornton, BOS - C
4. Hejduk, COL - W
5. Bertuzzi, VAN - W
6. Demitra, STL - C
7. Murray, BOS - W
8. Lemieux, PIT - C
9. Heatley, ATL - W
10. Palffy, LA - W
10. Modano, DAL - C
12. Federov, DET - C
13. Kariya, ANA - W
14. Hossa, OTT - W
15. Mogilny, TOR - W
15. Alfredsson, OTT - W
15. Prospal, TAM - C
18. Lecavalier, TAM - C
19. Kovalev, PIT/NYR - W
19. Jagr, WAS - W
21. Hull, DET - W
21. Whitney, CBJ - W
23. Satan, BUF - W
24. Richards, TAM - C
25. Sundin, TOR - C

Combined (plus/minus factored in)

1. Forsberg, COL - C (158)
2. Hejduk, COL - W (150)
3. Modano, DAL - C (119)
4. Thornton, BOS - C (113)
5. Naslund, VAN - W (110)
6. Palffy, LA - W (107)
7. Lidstrom, DET - D (102)
8. Murray, BOS - W (101)
8. Tanguay, COL - W (101)
10. Bertuzzi, VAN - W (99)
11. Federov, DET - C (98)
12. Alfredsson, OTT - W (94)
13. Demitra, STL - C (93)
14. MacInnis, STL - D (90)
15. Morrison, VAN - C (89)
16. Hossa, OTT - W (88)
17. Prospal, TAM - C (87)
17. Hull, DET - W (87)
17. Lehtinen, DAL - W (87)
20. Mogilny, TOR - W (83)
21. Jagr, WAS - W (82)
22. Heatley, ATL - W (81)
22. Lang, WAS - C (81)
24. St-Louis, TAM - W (80)
24. Gonchar, WAS - D (80)

So, where-o-where is Mr. Lemieux? The fourth-round would be my bet. Happy drafting, folks!

Article first appeared 8/26/03