This article is part of our From the Press Box series.
With Oilers floundering again, something's got to give
As I write this column, the standings show only one team with less than 20 points; once again, that team is from northern Alberta, Canada.
That is a disturbing fact for a team that's won the right to draft the top amateur player in four of the last six NHL Entry Drafts. Those picks as well as an equal number of high second-rounders have been attempting to reshape the fortunes of this long-suffering franchise. These are certainly not your father's Oilers –the ones who won five Stanley Cups in the 1980s. No, this club is hoping to break a nine-year streak in which it has failed to qualify for the postseason.
Those recent No. 1 choices have brought in Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and, of course, Connor McDavid. All these players were consensus choices as the top junior talents in their draft year, and all except Yakupov have shown immediate offensive upside, comprising the core of the Oilers' scoring punch. Even Yakupov showed the first indications of his scoring talents when he was paired with McDavid, though he's gone cold since the teen phenom got hurt. Another top pick, Leon Draisaitl (third overall in 2014), looks like the real deal with 18 points in 15 games. So Edmonton's management can be rightfully pleased with these choices.
There are two problems here, though. These guys are all forwards with very similar skill sets, and none of them have
With Oilers floundering again, something's got to give
As I write this column, the standings show only one team with less than 20 points; once again, that team is from northern Alberta, Canada.
That is a disturbing fact for a team that's won the right to draft the top amateur player in four of the last six NHL Entry Drafts. Those picks as well as an equal number of high second-rounders have been attempting to reshape the fortunes of this long-suffering franchise. These are certainly not your father's Oilers –the ones who won five Stanley Cups in the 1980s. No, this club is hoping to break a nine-year streak in which it has failed to qualify for the postseason.
Those recent No. 1 choices have brought in Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov and, of course, Connor McDavid. All these players were consensus choices as the top junior talents in their draft year, and all except Yakupov have shown immediate offensive upside, comprising the core of the Oilers' scoring punch. Even Yakupov showed the first indications of his scoring talents when he was paired with McDavid, though he's gone cold since the teen phenom got hurt. Another top pick, Leon Draisaitl (third overall in 2014), looks like the real deal with 18 points in 15 games. So Edmonton's management can be rightfully pleased with these choices.
There are two problems here, though. These guys are all forwards with very similar skill sets, and none of them have really shown the ability to play a strong two-way game, leaving the Oilers' netminders vulnerable to counterattacks.
Through this period of futility, the Oil have missed with most of their second-round picks and are still developing on the blue line and in goal. However, two recent defensive picks – 2011 first-rounder Oscar Klefbom and 2013 No. 7 pick Darnell Nurse – look through the first 20 games of this season like they're both capable of being long-term pieces in Edmonton. Nurse is impressing in his first tour in the NHL, while Klefbom is making big strides in the defensive side of his game and slowly growing his offensive productivity after struggling through an unimpressive rookie season. If they continue to show as well as they have, the Oilers may finally turn a bit of a corner at some point this season.
Edmonton's failures in goal have been well documented in this era, but they have some reason for optimism with their current netminding duo. Cam Talbot showed that he was a capable backup who could take on a bigger load when Henrik Lundqvist went down with injury last year. He has struggled at times this season, but has shown some positive flashes, too. His partner, Anders Nilsson, has been a bit more of a revelation. Nilsson has posted a 2.70 GAA and .911 save percentage – steady, unspectacular numbers, but better than we've seen from Edmonton goalies in years.
So, despite the poor start to this season, at least there are more positive indicators than ever before.
Goaltending situations in flux
The top entry here has to be Carey Price and his return to the injury list. Price had just returned from a nine-game absence due to a knee injury, but only stayed in the lineup for three games before incurring the same injury last week. He is back on the shelf and is expected to miss six more weeks of action. In his absence, Mike Condon has excelled, for the most part, accumulating a 9-2-2 mark, along with a 2.11 GAA and a .918 save mark. The pressure will be on Condon to carry the bulk of the load, but we also expect to see another top goalie prospect, Zach Fucale, get his first NHL work in the near future. While Condon is an undrafted free agent who excelled in the Canadiens' 2015 training camp, Fucale is a 2013 second-round pick who had a solid junior career with international tournament experience as well. So his debut will be much anticipated in Montreal.
The Ducks dug themselves a big hole, but they've been slowly coming around to play like one of the better clubs of late, with an 8-4-3 record in their last 15 games. They recently promoted John Gibson from their AHL affiliate in San Diego after Frederik Andersen went down with an illness. Gibson's taken on the last four starts, going 2-1-1 with a 1.82 GAA and .936 save percentage. Gibson was part of the goalie tandem last season and is certainly considered the future between the pipes in Anaheim. He made a successful debut in his rookie season and was sharp in the AHL this season, so perhaps the future is now for the Ducks' second-round pick in the 2011 Draft.
In Toronto, the goalie situation has now seen Garret Sparks join the fray. The 22-year-old earned a shutout in his NHL debut, something that no Leafs goalie has done in the club's 99-year history. Sparks was pressed into duty because James Reimer has been suffering from a lower-body injury, while Jonathan Bernier (0-8-1) has ben awful in his nine appearances this season.
Reimer has been the go-to guy this year, putting up impressive numbers (7-3-4, 2.07 GAA, .934 save mark) in his 15 appearances. He's also in the final year of his contract and is projected to be an unrestricted free agent after this season. Reimer's been in the Leafs' system for 10 years and has never been regarded as an elite goalie, so despite this fine play, he may not be the future in net for Toronto.
Bernier, a former first-round draft pick, seems to have lost his confidence, and coach Mike Babcock has all but admitted that he also has no confidence in his former starter. In fact, there has been some talk that the Leafs may even waive him, just to get rid of his $4.15 million cap hit.
Sparks may have had a great debut, but it remains to be seen whether the 22-year-old will get an extended look in the near future.
Finally, in Columbus, Sergei Bobrovsky is doing his part to reverse the Jackets' early struggles. The club started out with a 2-10 record, but has gone 8-6 since then, which is more in line with preseason expectations. For his part, Bobrovsky has excelled, limiting opponents to two goals or fewer in 12 of his last 14 starts. He once again looks like one of the league's elite goalies.
Looking around the league
Tampa is playing to a .500 mark (11-11-3) through 25 games, representing an unexpected drop-off for the defending Eastern Conference champs.
The central issue is that the Bolts' scoring is down to 2.32 per game, almost a full goal less than last year. The poster boy for this decline has been last year's scoring leader for the Bolts, Tyler Johnson, who has only produced four goals and seven assists in 21 games. Nikita Kucherov, a 29-goal man last season, has only six tallies thus far. Their top offensive blueliner, Viktor Hedman, is also well off his career norms, with a modest two goals and 11 assists.
To top things off, Steven Stamkos, the signature player here, has only 11 goals and eight assists, also well below his career pace. That's surprising, as he's in the final year of his contract and is a pending UFA. His contract negotiations have been kept very quiet, and his potential departure will be a huge issue for the Lightning.
On the plus side, Dallas GM Jim Nill has orchestrated an excellent retooling of the Stars' roster. He's brought in two top centers in Tyler Seguin and Jason Spezza, and added Patrick Sharp last offseason. Nill has also overseen the reshaping of the club's blueline, with the addition of Johnny Oduya and development of John Klingberg particularly noteworthy. He's even solidified the goaltending, having brought in Antti Niemi to form one of the league's most experienced tandems with Kari Lehtonen.
This team is bucking the league-wide trend of emphasizing defensive-minded hockey. Instead, the Stars boast the NHL's most prolific offense, and it's sure been fun to watch en route to a Central Division-best 19-5 record thus far.
Fantasy owners need to be aware of the ways that players are trending.
In Montreal, we see positive and negative examples. Andrei Markov was coming off a strong campaign last season and even had a hot start this year, with nine points and a plus-14 rating in his first eight games. He's followed that up with nine points and a minus-8 in his last 18 games. That decline mirrors Markov's results from last season, when he faded in the second half. He looks like a sell-high candidate to me. Conversely. Alex Galchenyuk is a fourth-year pro and former No. 3 overall pick who was underperforming to expectations until this season. He was likely a late-round pick in most yearlong pools, but it looks like he's poised to deliver big profits with a breakout campaign. Galchenyuk has 18 points in 26 games and is on pace to set career highs on offense while playing top-six minutes for the league's top team.
It's early in the year, but we're even starting to get into trade speculation.
Where will Eric Staal wind up? Is Dustin Byfuglien, a lifelong Thrasher/Jet, going to get moved out of Winnipeg? What about that Stamkos situation in Tampa? The vigilant fantasy player will need to stay on top of this type of news and can look forward to my opinions on all those topics in this space.
