Setting the Table: Differential FPL Forwards

Setting the Table: Differential FPL Forwards

This article is part of our Setting the Table series.

Manchester City's Sergio Aguero led the Premier League in scoring last season with 26 goals, finishing five ahead of Spurs' Harry Kane and six ahead of Chelsea's Diego Costa. As a result, Aguero is the highest priced player in the Premier League's official fantasy game, coming in at a whopping £13.0. That is a full £1.5 higher than the next highest player, Arsenal's Alexis Sanchez, who still classifies as a midfielder.

Aguero's high price tag is the biggest limit to his ownership percentage. Had it been even £1.0 less, he'd be closer to 30 percent owned.

In order to afford these higher-priced options, fantasy players must find cheaper players who can still produce at a high level, such as Danny Ings, Charlie Austin and Kane last season.

FPL players appear to want to give the "best value" title to Watford's Troy Deeney, who is the ninth highest owned forward (12.2 percent) thanks to his £5.5 price tag. Deeney's last three seasons will show you why:

2014-15: 21 goals and eight assists in 42 appearances (37 starts)
2013-14: 24 goals and three assists in 44 appearances (all starts)
2012-13: 20 goals and 10 assists in 43 appearances (36 starts)

It's a very impressive stat line and hard to argue that he doesn't have a knack for goal. However, one also has to wonder why he hasn't been poached from Watford already. Deeney turned 27 in June, which certainly explains why Watford held onto him this summer, but it's still a surprise that he hasn't been given a better Premier League shot before this. Amid speculation of a move (when is there not?), Deeney inked a new five-year contract earlier this month to remain at the club.

And my colleague Mike Gottlieb wouldn't let me hear the end of it if I didn't include this Deeney highlight, which he describes as one of the greatest sports moment in the history of the planet (no hyperbole from Mike, ever):

If you're looking for a value differential to Deeney, the first name that should be discussed is Bournemouth's Callum Wilson (£5.5, 6.4 percent owned), who had 20 goals and seven assists in 45 appearances last season. Wilson has apparently become a target of Aston Villa, who are set to lose Christian Benteke to Liverpool, and a move to Villa Park would do nothing to hurt his fantasy upside. Manager Tim Sherwood is clearly an offensive-minded manager who would rather outscore the opposition in a shootout than focus on locking down defensively. Bournemouth led the Championship in goals scored last season, so Wilson is certainly comfortable playing in an attacking style. 20 goals in the Premier League is unrealistic, but don't sleep on 10 to 14.

Looking even deeper into the value pool, Norwich City's Cameron Jerome is an intriguing option. Priced at just £5.0 (£0.5 cheaper than Wilson and Deeney), Jerome is just 2.0 percent owned after scoring 20 times and picking up seven assists in 46 appearances last season. Granted, Jerome has struggled in his previous stints in the Premier League, but he's got clear playing time now and is the top of the Canaries' attack.

If choosing players from the promoted sides takes you out of your comfort zone, then Crystal Palace's Glenn Murray (£6.0) jumps out as a solid differential pick. Owned by just 0.9 percent of fantasy managers, Murray finished with eight goals and one assist in 18 appearances last season and really came on after Alan Pardew took over at Selhurst Park. In addition to spearheading an attack with four very good midfielders (Yannick Bolasie, Yohan Cabaye, Jason Puncheon and Wilfried Zaha), Murray was also taking penalties for Palace after Pardew took over. Palace are expected to be a higher-scoring team this season thanks to their attacking midfielders, and Murray could certainly touch the double-digit goal mark.

The biggest knock on Murray is that he could be replaced within a matter of days or weeks. Chelsea forward Loic Remy (£7.5) has been heavily linked to Palace and would immediately displace Murray as the starting striker. However, the rumors of a transfer have done nothing to move Remy up the ownership list, as he has been picked by only 1.0 percent of fantasy managers as of July 20. Yes, Remy's ownership is low now because he is still with Chelsea, but fantasy managers may want to grab that £7.5 price tag before it rises when the goals start coming in for Palace. I agree with Mike's assessment of the Palace forward position:



And if the Remy move doesn't happen, Murray could be an excellent value.

Here's the forwards ownership table as of July 20:

PlayerClub£%PlayerClub£%PlayerClub£%
Costa CHE 11.0 35.9 Cissé NEW 6.5 1.5 Chamakh CRY 5 0.3
Kane TOT 9.5 33.6 Bojan STK 5.5 1.4 Mayuka SOU 4.5 0.3
Benteke AVL 8.5 24.2 Valencia WHU 6.0 1.4 Jovetic MCI 7.0 0.3
Rooney MUN 10.5 23.2 Origi LIV 6.0 1.2 Akpom ARS 5.0 0.3
Aguero MCI 13.0 19.6 Gayle CRY 5.5 1.1 Lafferty NOR 4.5 0.3
Lukaku EVE 8.0 17.0 Ighalo WAT 5.0 1.0 Ideye WBA 5.5 0.3
Ings LIV 7.5 12.9 Vydra WAT 5.0 1.0 Anichebe WBA 5.0 0.2
Pelle SOU 8.0 12.6 Remy CHE 7.5 1.0 Hernández MUN 6.0 0.2
Deeney WAT 5.5 12.2 Long SOU 6.0 1.0 Sturridge LIV 10.5 0.2
Giroud ARS 9.0 11.6 Crouch STK 6.0 1.0 Wilson MUN 5.0 0.2
Berahino WBA 6.5 11.1 Murray CRY 6.0 0.9 Armstrong NEW 4.5 0.2
Wilson BOU 5.5 6.4 Emnes SWA 4.5 0.8 Kramaric LEI 6.0 0.2
Falcao CHE 7.5 6.0 Fletcher SUN 5.0 0.8 Koné EVE 5.0 0.2
Sakho WHU 6.5 5.8 Eder SWA 5.5 0.6 Zárate WHU 5.5 0.2
Ulloa LEI 6.0 5.5 van Wolfswinkel NOR 5.0 0.5 Joselu STK 6.0 0.2
Agbonlahor AVL 5.0 5.2 Welbeck ARS 7.5 0.5 Campbell CRY 5.5 0.1
Defoe SUN 5.5 3.6 Samaras WBA 4.5 0.5 Barrow SWA 4.5 0.1
Naismith EVE 5.5 3.5 Kermorgant BOU 5.0 0.5 Rivière NEW 5.5 0.1
Vardy LEI 6.0 3.5 Okazaki LEI 6.0 0.5 Sanogo ARS 5.0 0.1
Dzeko MCI 7.5 3.4 Forestieri WAT 4.5 0.4 Borini LIV 5.5 0.1
Graham SUN 4.5 3.1 Maiga WHU 4.5 0.4 Lambert LIV 6.0 0.1
Diouf STK 6.5 2.8 Balotelli LIV 7.0 0.4 Soldado TOT 6.0 0.1
Rodriguez SOU 7.0 2.7 Grabban NOR 4.5 0.4 Kozák AVL 5.0 0.1
Gomis SWA 7.0 2.1 Juanmi SOU 6.0 0.4 Hepburn-Murphy AVL 4.5 0.1
Jerome NOR 5.0 2.0 Rantie BOU 4.5 0.4 Lee WHU 4.5 0.1
Hooper NOR 4.5 1.8 Wickham SUN 6.0 0.3 Solanke CHE 5.0 0.0
Ayoze NEW 5.5 1.8 Nugent LEI 5.5 0.3 Carroll WHU 6.5 0.0
Bony MCI 8.5 1.8 Adebayor TOT 6.0 0.3 Pozo MCI 5.0 0.0
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew M. Laird
Andrew M. Laird, the 2017 and 2018 FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's Head of DFS Content and Senior Soccer Editor. He is a nine-time FSWA award finalist, including twice for Football Writer of the Year.
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